Global markets may be recovering, but the continent is behind the curve and analysis of the 6,700-plus generation projects contained in the African Energy Live Data platform shows the trend continues.
The malaise in most of the continent’s generation industries continued in Q1 2021, even though work resumed on most power projects which were held back by the pandemic in 2020. New data show that solar technology is spreading too slowly and in too few areas to meet the expectations of energy transition advocates.
Excluding South Africa, just net 309MW of on-grid installed capacity was added in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in Q1 2021, slightly less than in the first quarter of coronavirus-blighted 2020, when net 314MW came online.
Key points from the Q1 2021 data:
- A net 2,689MW on-grid capacity was added overall in Q1 2021 – gas accounted for 1,397MW, followed by coal (800MW), liquid fuels (668MW), hydropower (244MW) and solar (231MW).
- Excluding South Africa, only net 309MW of on-grid installed capacity was added in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This is slightly less than in the first quarter of coronavirus-blighted 2020, when net 314MW came online.
- Of the 309MW added in SSA (excluding South Africa), 240MW net new hydroelectric power (HEP), 51MW solar PV, and 18MW liquid fuels were added.
- Only nine SSA countries added any new on-grid capacity at all, four of which added less than 5MW.
- South Africa added 984MW, mostly with the commercial operation of Kusile unit III which had already been supplying power to the grid for more than a year.
- North Africa added the most on-grid capacity in a Q1 since 2017 with 1,398MW, but this was almost entirely due to the commissioning of a single plant, the 1,397MW Jijel gas power plant in Algeria.
- The spell of slow growth since 2019 is the worst performance for new generation since the 2000s.
- Hydropower was the most prevalent technology for new capacity in sub-Saharan Africa while overall capacity additions were dominated by gas, coal, and HFO.
- Q2 21 is likely to have been a similarly poor quarter: preliminary figures show only 239MW was added across the continent, including off-grid and embedded plants, although this figure will increase as new information comes in.
Speaking to hundreds of stakeholders to inform the Q1 2021 update, African Energy found that, compared to H2 2020, many were less optimistic as challenges relating to the Covid-19 pandemic – alongside existing difficulties – dragged on. But prior to the pandemic, 2019 data showed the sector was already losing momentum from its mid-decade high, as attention turned from generation shortfalls to bottlenecks in transmission and distribution, along with financial sustainability. The slowdown was heavily linked to planning and reform implementation failures in key SSA markets Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria, which stagnated following poorly conceived mid-decade procurement drives.
However, there are some indications that activity will pick up elsewhere in the coming years, driven by a huge drive to increase generation in South Africa, but also by procurement in less familiar markets.
“While there has rightly been more focus on transmission and distribution constraints, the importance of generation and sector economics should not be understated. Power plants take a long time to develop and require effective planning and policy for the pipeline to meet the needs of a country’s energy system. In many countries no capacity is being added at all despite a desperate need and investments in the project pipeline are being influenced by restrictions on financing fossil fuel projects,” said African Energy power editor Dan Marks.
A full analysis of the newly released data is included in the latest issue of African Energy.
Read the full analysis here
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