Can South Africa avoid loadshedding crisis extending to 2025?


South Africa power map

June 2021

South Africa’s on-grid installed capacity will reach 70.4GW in 2025, but dispatchable supply of approximately 36GW may not be sufficient to meet a peak demand of 38GW, according to new research carried out by African Energy.

Analysis of utility supply has shown that despite nominal installed capacity increasing by 8GW over the last decade, electricity available for generation has decreased by 7%.

Our revised South Africa Power Report 2021/22 shows that action is needed if load shedding is to end by the middle of this decade, but important steps have already been taken. The Risk Mitigation IPP programme is progressing, albeit with major hurdles facing the largest bidder; the government has announced new procurement for renewable and other power; while the lifting of the threshold at which projects require a generation licence from 1MW to 100MW could unlock around 5GW of new distributed generation.

Request a PDF factsheet covering key findings for supply and demand and the C&I market.

I was recently joined by African Energy founder Jon Marks for a discussion of the outlook for the South African electricity supply industry.

Watch the video below

 

Ajay Ubhi

Senior research analyst

Ajay’s role is to conduct and oversee research and analysis for African Energy’s consultancy work, with a focus on power sector forecasting and data analytics. Read more

Ajay Ubhi

Consultancy contacts

John Hamilton
Managing director and senior analyst, North Africa

Ajay Ubhi
Senior research analyst

Marc Howard
Senior research analyst

Tel: +44 (0)1424 721667

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