South Africa Power Report 2021/22

• Critical analysis of power market structure, procurement programmes and the governing policies and regulations.
• Detailed demand and supply analysis – including an assessment of energy availability vs installed capacity and a detailed five-year outlook.
• In-depth look at the C&I market.
• Comprehensive information on in-development generation projects and profiles of key players in the sector.
• Resource availability assessment – including coal, gas (domestic and imported), solar, wind and hydrogen potential.
• Analysis of South Africa’s T&D sector- extent of grid, reforms, plans plus interconnections and SAPP competitive market.
• Examination of the political environment including profiles of leading ANC and opposition figures.
• Assessment of governance, including ongoing actions to tackle historic and systemic political corruption scandals.
• An overview of the macroeconomic climate and outlook, including the impact of Covid-19, the country’s ‘junk’ Sovereign rating status and its long road back to investment grade.

• What impacts will Covid-19 have on the energy sector?
• How will government planning address the expected electricity supply shortfall?
• What steps are being taken to unlock the C&I market?
• When will new IPP and other capacity be added?
• Does coal have a continued role to play?

1. Executive summary

2. Risk Management Index

3. Political overview
3.1. Structure of government
3.2. Stability of the political system
3.3. The main political parties
3.4. Elections
3.5. Corruption
3.6. Security risks
3.7. Political economy and major policy initiatives

4.0 Macroeconomic overview
4.1. Overview
4.2. Reform and missed targets
4.3. A very difficult outlook
4.4. Economic structure and (stunted) growth
4.5. Inflation and the central bank
4.6. Fiscal deficit and debt: compounded by Covid-19
4.7. The 2021/22 budget
4.8. Balance of payments
4.9. Foreign reserves and the rand
4.10. Credit ratings
4.11. Key lending rates
4.12. Local market liquidity
4.13. WBG Ease of Doing Business

5.0 Power sector overview
5.1. Overview
5.2. Market structure
5.3. Key institutions
5.4. The South African ESI: A short sector history
5.5. Main consumers of electricity
5.6. Regional electricity trade
5.7. Eskom and the ESI crisis
5.8. Independent power producers
5.9. Off-grid including SHS and C&I
5.10. Challenges facing the ESI

6. Policy
6.1. Major Legislation
6.2. ESI plans and policies

7.0 Regulation
7.1. Legal requirements
7.2. Procurement
7.3. Tariffs
7.4. Currency risk

8. Demand and supply analysis
8.1. Overview
8.2. Key factors influencing demand
8.3. Demand forecasts
8.4. Key factors influencing supply
8.5. Supply forecasts
8.6. African Energy medium-term capacity projection

9. Resource availability
9.1. Hydrocarbons industry overview
9.2. Key industry agencies
9.3. Legislation
9.4. Licensing
9.5. Crude oil
9.6. Natural gas
9.7. Coal
9.8. Geothermal
9.9. Solar
9.10. Wind
9.11. Hydroelectric power
9.12. Uranium
9.13. Hydrogen

10. Transmission and distribution
10.1. Overview
10.2. Critical issues facing the network
10.3. Sector reforms
10.4. Planned grid improvements
10.5. Regional trade
10.6. Electricity imports and exports

11. Commercial & industrial market
11.1. Market overview
11.2. Routes to market
11.3. Policy direction
11.4. Regulation
11.5. C&I tariffs
11.6. Corporate PPAs
11.7. C&I project profiles

12. Competitive landscape
12.1. Overview
12.2. Landmark power projects
12.3. Under construction generation projects (as of February 2021)

13. Installed capacity data

14. Power generation projects