23 Jun 2021
South Africa’s electricity supply industry is facing major challenges. New capacity additions have been insufficient to arrest the decline in electricity generated, and despite a fall in demand severe load shedding has been imposed. This is against the backdrop of coronavirus which has placed a heavy burden on the economy.
African Energy’s South Africa Power Report 2020/21 assesses the causes and symptoms of this crisis from political power struggles, governance issues and the long list of policy documents that are supposed to guide the ESI's future direction – but where in many cases ambitions are unfulfilled – to the country’s huge potential for renewable energy and the pressures of ensuring a ‘just transition’ away from coal.
Revised in June 2021, our five-year supply and demand projection shows that dispatchable generation may be insufficient to meet peak demand by the middle of the decade. An improvement in the performance of Eskom’s fleet, or a glut of new renewable generation, will be required if load shedding is to be avoided in the medium term. However, new rules on licensing could lead to a boom in the distributed generation market and the closing of the supply and demand gap.
A comprehensive guide to the risks, realities, opportunities and threats associated with entering South Africa’s electricity industry.
New features of the 2020/21 edition of this report include:
Benefit from independent power generation forecasts based on the actual project development pipeline, with data drawn from African Energy Live Data – our proprietary database of more than 6,500 power projects and plants.
Request a PDF factsheet covering key findings for supply and demand and the C&I market
Head of consultancy David Slater was joined by power editor Dan Marks and African Energy founder Jon Marks for a discussion of the research undertaken for the report and the outlook for the South African electricity supply industry.
Read Jon Marks' recent View on South Africa - Reforms can gain impetus only if South Africa emerges from political standoff
1. Executive summary
2. Risk Management Index
3. Political overview
3.1. Structure of government
3.2. Stability of the political system
3.3. The main political parties
3.4. Elections
3.5. Corruption
3.6. Security risks
3.7. Political economy and major policy initiatives
4.0 Macroeconomic overview
4.1. Overview
4.2. Reform and missed targets
4.3. A very difficult outlook
4.4. Economic structure and (stunted) growth
4.5. Inflation and the central bank
4.6. Fiscal deficit and debt: compounded by Covid-19
4.7. The 2021/22 budget
4.8. Balance of payments
4.9. Foreign reserves and the rand
4.10. Credit ratings
4.11. Key lending rates
4.12. Local market liquidity
4.13. WBG Ease of Doing Business
5.0 Power sector overview
5.1. Overview
5.2. Market structure
5.3. Key institutions
5.4. The South African ESI: A short sector history
5.5. Main consumers of electricity
5.6. Regional electricity trade
5.7. Eskom and the ESI crisis
5.8. Independent power producers
5.9. Off-grid including SHS and C&I
5.10. Challenges facing the ESI
6. Policy
6.1. Major Legislation
6.2. ESI plans and policies
7.0 Regulation
7.1. Legal requirements
7.2. Procurement
7.3. Tariffs
7.4. Currency risk
8. Demand and supply analysis
8.1. Overview
8.2. Key factors influencing demand
8.3. Demand forecasts
8.4. Key factors influencing supply
8.5. Supply forecasts
8.6. African Energy medium-term capacity projection
9. Resource availability
9.1. Hydrocarbons industry overview
9.2. Key industry agencies
9.3. Legislation
9.4. Licensing
9.5. Crude oil
9.6. Natural gas
9.7. Coal
9.8. Geothermal
9.9. Solar
9.10. Wind
9.11. Hydroelectric power
9.12. Uranium
9.13. Hydrogen
10. Transmission and distribution
10.1. Overview
10.2. Critical issues facing the network
10.3. Sector reforms
10.4. Planned grid improvements
10.5. Regional trade
10.6. Electricity imports and exports
11. Commercial & industrial market
11.1. Market overview
11.2. Routes to market
11.3. Policy direction
11.4. Regulation
11.5. C&I tariffs
11.6. Corporate PPAs
11.7. C&I project profiles
12. Competitive landscape
12.1. Overview
12.2. Landmark power projects
12.3. Under construction generation projects (as of February 2021)
13. Installed capacity data
14. Power generation projects
Download the report's detailed contents list
South Africa Power Report 2021/22
Published:
Price: £2,995
Format: PDF
Pages: 161
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