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The Norwegian Nobel Committee’s decision to award the 2011 Peace Prize to President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, just four days before the first round of Liberia’s presidential elections, was a controversial one. In her first term, Johnson Sirleaf did a remarkable job of launching the revival of a country emerging from civil war and economic chaos, but her decision to seek a second term was controversial as she had pledged to serve just one term

Nigerian business leaders may bask in the nation’s inclusion (with Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) among the ‘Mint’ economies, predicted by Brics creator Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs to lead the next generation of emerging markets. That status will be confirmed if, as expected, Nigeria overtakes South Africa as Africa’s largest national economy. Optimism has been reinforced by the promise of initiatives such as the 2013 privatisation of electricity assets, much of it funded from local capital markets. But there are still plenty of issues to give rise to concern, even when security concerns in the north and Niger Delta are discounted.

The murder of US ambassador Chris Stevens and three of his staff during what appears to have been a planned attack on the consulate in Benghazi could hardly send a more negative message about Libya’s prospects. Security has been top of the agenda for the interim authorities who have ruled the country since its liberation. But it also seems to have topped the ‘too difficult’ list.

Prime minister-designate Habib Essid initiated fresh consultations with political parties on 27 January after initial soundings suggested the Assemblée des Représentants du Peuple (ARP) would not approve his proposed cabinet. Given the now well-established tradition of political dialogue between opposing political forces, this is not expected to long delay the formation of a fully constitutional and democratically legitimate government, which will end the transition started by the ousting of President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali four years ago. Against this massive achievement, huge challenges also confront the nation, not least the deteriorating instability in Libya and Tunisia’s own great economic problems.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s in-tray would terrify almost any political leader. He will watch the US election results with special interest after President Donald Trump signalled his frustration over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam by observing that Egypt would “end up blowing up the dam and… they have to do something”. Trump blamed Ethiopia for failed negotiations chaired by the United States earlier this year.

Much is expected of Joe Biden after he is sworn in on 20 January; some of the anticipated policy shifts the United States’ 46th president and his administration may deliver, others they may not – including reversing some controversial policies promoted by his predecessor.

The global energy transition is having profound impacts on natural resource producers, from the oil majors who are morphing into energy providers, to mining companies whose priorities are shifting as electric vehicles (EVs), battery storage and other new technologies take hold, and African governments and non-state actors who might profit from these changes but could also find themselves embroiled in new resource wars.

The rules governing a new mechanism for the international trading of carbon emission reduction credits is due to be agreed at the Bonn Climate Change Conference, which runs from 6-16 June in Germany. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – which has so far proved of limited value to Africa – is set to be replaced by Article 6 of the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference’s Paris Agreement, which is intended to offer governments and project owners the potential to tap into a  new source of finance.

Since the putsch that removed the now-exiled President Alpha Condé in September, ‘Interim President’ Colonel Mamady Doumbouya has been determined to stamp his mark on Guinea. His policies may be less confrontational than those of his friend Colonel Assimi Goïta in Mali, who replaced French forces with Russian Wagner Group paramilitaries, but Doumbouya has nevertheless asserted control over his country’s political and business life.

There has been progress in the campaign against Boko Haram and President Muhammadu Buhari’s flagship fight against corruption. Higher oil prices will pump more cash into the economy, helping to ease extreme foreign exchange shortages that have hurt business. A $1bn Eurobond was nearly eight times oversubscribed, the Ministry of Finance said on 9 February. But pending a major fillip for the economy (including an eventual official devaluation of the naira), the outlook for Nigeria remains patchy, with investors holding back until they see clearer signs of the direction of business and politics.

Modelling and number-crunching may not have the popular appeal of big new power stations or trans-continental interconnections, but they can be crucial to making markets work – and in Africa could open up new vistas for more efficient, more responsive and much larger electricity supply industries (ESIs).

President Muhammadu Buhari finally responded to popular concerns over security by replacing his military top team on 26 January. With the economy hobbled by low oil prices and coronavirus, he has allowed a little more economic flexibility, although it remains to be seen whether his costly defence of the naira’s inflated value will be replaced by the foreign exchange market unification favoured by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

Nigeria has endured another long wait for President Muhammadu Buhari to announce his new government. Re-elected in February, Buhari finally swore in members of his new cabinet on 21 August. During the long interim, key officers of state have worked to steady the ship; Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor Godwin Emefiele has won praise for his stewardship of an under-pressure economy, while vice-president Yemi Osinbajo continues to reassure investors.

Egypt has a good claim to have been the most dynamic of all African countries in 2022, but 2023 may be its year of reckoning. The currency crisis now ravaging the economy could bring President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s futuristic edifice of renewables, green hydrogen (GH2), new cities, real estate, electric trains, sea water desalination and social infrastructure crashing down unless he can keep on side a wide coalition. This includes the IMF and Gulf monarchies which are Egypt’s largest creditors, the military, whose economic prerogatives must now be curtailed, a hard-pressed population, and international business partners.

One region seems above all others to stubbornly buck the positive political and economic trends recorded over two decades by African Energy: it comprises the six Communauté Economique et Monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale (Cemac) countries and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Events in the last month, including a failed coup in Gabon and contested elections in DRC, underline Central Africa’s chronic crisis of leadership. Such political behaviours are increasingly seen as an anachronism in a world structured by social media, as well as by older social bonds and traditional patterns of coercion by elites.