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An unusually bitter spat between National Oil Corporation and the central bank over the value of oil revenues earned during 2020 is the most public manifestation of the new realignment in Libyan politics. At stake is the question of who will control the nation’s finances over the next year while preparations are put in place for new elections, writes John Hamilton.

National Oil Corporation (NOC) and its international partners increased production to 1.2m b/d by 13 November, less than a week after output passed the 1m b/d mark. NOC chairman Mustafa Sanalla has said that it could hit 1.3m b/d within a month. The rapid resurgence in output is dependent on a still fragile ceasefire and withdrawal of armed groups from oil facilities and fields

Libya’s National Oil Corporation has moved swiftly to restore production following the lifting of the blockade, but beneath the surface substantial problems remain. These are not just the challenges of fixing degraded oil production infrastructure but also of working out a full political resolution, without which this may just be a temporary improvement, writes John Hamilton.

The permanent ceasefire and agreement on withdrawal of mercenaries that allowed force majeure to be lifted was agreed by the 5+5 Joint Military Commission at a meeting in Geneva on 23 October.  This is just one of several parallel peace processes promoted by the United Nations and others. The Government of National Accord (GNA) and Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan Arab Armed Forces have each appointed five senior officers to the commission, which has been meeting since early 2020.

The launch of two projects to import LNG will eventually save Libya money and end a debilitating period of rolling power cuts. While gas sales from the west of the country to Italy are likely to continue, the deterioration of one of Africa’s leading hydrocarbons exporters to this point provides more evidence of the shocking irresponsibility of domestic politicians and their various international supporters, writes John Hamilton

Impatience with power cuts and the lack of any clear strategy to resolve the crisis has driven Libyan politicians to take action against Gecol management. The failure to ensure reliable electricity supply is now being blamed on criminal negligence, leading to the charging or arrest of former senior executives, writes John Hamilton

On 18 September, deputy leader of the Government of National Accord’s Presidency Council Ahmed Maetig issued a seven-point agreement reached with warlord Khalifa Haftar, whose Libyan Arab Armed Forces control the eastern part of the country. In a televised address soon afterwards, Haftar confirmed he was lifting the blockade on all ports and terminals. Peace agreements signed by other players during August failed to get this far, and in July a fresh war seemed possible.

A scheme put forward in August aims to supply the Man- Made River (MMR) with power from independent solar generation plants.The waterway is a critical piece of infrastructure supplying almost all the water consumed by the majority of Libya’s population, and is highly vulnerable to grid power outages. The proposal, which is at an early stage, could involve the construction of as many as 20 IPPs, each of 5MW.

On 21 August, the leader of the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) Presidency Council Fayez Al-Sarraj and eastern-based House of Representatives president Aguila Saleh each announced their own ceasefire. Saleh suggested that a new presidency council could be temporarily established in the demilitarised city of Sirte.

A scheme to provide renewable electric power to the Man-Made River, which supplies almost all the water consumed by the majority of Libya’s population, has been agreed by a consortium made up of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), United Nations entities and a subsidiary of the Libyan Investment Authority sovereign wealth fund.

The peremptory quashing by the United Arab Emirates of a nascent deal under which some oil exports could have restarted, the Egyptian parliament’s approval of military intervention, Turkey’s determination to take control of the oil fields and terminals, combined with local actors’ inflexible pursuit of their separate interests are all factors pushing Libya into a deeper war. 

Power cuts have been a regular feature of life in Libya for a long while now, and not only during periods of intensive energy use such as high summer when air-conditioning use reaches its peak. Demand has inexorably increased while available capacity from increasingly unreliable plants has gradually declined. The civil war has prevented contractors from completing the final commissioning of some new capacity, while conflict, sabotage and theft have eroded transmission and distribution networks.

The success of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) in driving the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF, formerly known as the Libyan National Army) out of a strategic airbase west of the capital has opened up a new phase in the civil war. Geopolitically, the winners are Turkey, the GNA’s main international sponsor, and Russia, which is overtaking the United Arab Emirates as the most influential but also a more pragmatic backer of the diminished warlord Khalifa Haftar.

Pleas from United Nations secretary-general António Guterres for a cessation in hostilities to enable medical personnel in Libya to deal with the spread of coronavirus have been ignored. On 8 April, the UN Support Mission in Libya reported heavy shelling of a hospital in Tripoli. The perpetrators were not named but were most probably aligned with the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by the warlord Khalifa Haftar.