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Ignoring pressure on him to stand down, Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dabaiba has authorised the Ministry of Finance to pay for a major new oil refinery in south-west Libya. The project is already the subject of an intricate financing scheme

Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla says outgoing Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dabaiba’s Government of National Unity (GNU)’s failure to pay the national oil company’s budgets means oil production could fall at any moment – and there is no scope to increase gas exports to Italy.

National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla met senior executives from a number of international oil companies (IOCs), during a visit to Houston in early March. More than any other official, Sanalla remains the person that upstream companies need to stay in touch with to maintain their interests in Libya.

Oil output in Algeria remains below the amount allowed under the Opec+ arrangement – something which is also the case for several other big African producers, as shown by the cartel’s Monthly Oil Market Report for March. According to their official filings, almost all African producers are producing below their agreed quota.

Imminent commissioning of the Tobruk, Misratah and Tripoli West gas-fired power plants could put unprecedented strain on a Libyan gas supply network that is already struggling to supply enough feedstock to maintain output at operating stations in Tripolitania. Failing to end the decade-long electricity supply crisis will be politically costly for ‘outgoing’ prime minister Abdelhamid Dabaiba, and it may also be a while before Eni-National Oil Corporation joint venture Mellitah Oil and Gas can cash in on increased European demand by exporting more gas through the Greenstream pipeline 

Among Russia’s portfolio of interests in Africa – which include a large military sales business and nuclear development ambitions – state-owned entities such as Gazprom, Gazpromneft and Rosneft have built up hydrocarbons industry interests in markets around the continent, from Algeria in the north to Nigeria, and Angola and Mozambique south of the Sahara.  African Energy examines Russia's investments in Africa's upstream sector and its possible strategic objectives.

An arbitration ruling means National Oil Corporation (NOC) can press ahead with buying out UAE-based Trasta Energy’s 50% stake in the Libyan Emirati Oil Refining Company (Lerco) and regaining full control of the Ras Lanuf oil refinery. The plant could resume operations after a decade of inaction, although at least one major court battle still lies ahead, writes John Hamilton.

Libya is sinking deeper into a state of extreme political uncertainty as Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabaiba and his Government of National Unity (GNU) cling to power in defiance of attempts by other state institutions to appoint a new administration. With every day that Dabaiba holds on, the more likely it becomes he will continue in office, in some form at least. The pressure is therefore on Prime Minister-designate Fathi Bashaga to not only appoint but also to install his government in Tripoli as soon as possible.

Whatever happens in Libya’s turbulent political arena, international finance and expertise will have to play a greater role if progress is to be made on the infrastructure needed for social and economic development. A wide range of actors are trying their luck. African Energy profiles those involved in two proposed power plants, at Zliten and Ghadames: Qatar’s Urbacon Trading and Construction Company (UCC), Ireland’s AG Energy, Germany’s Siemens, the US’s Hill International, and Libya’s Acesco Consulting Engineering and Services and the Privatisation and Investment Board (PIB).

Abdelhamid Al-Dabaiba’s government has granted permission for the construction of two highly ambitious power generation projects. Cork-based AG Energy, with links to the former Irish Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, is in line to build what could be Libya’s first private sector solar PV plant. Qatar-based Urbacon Trading and Construction (UCC) has been authorised to build a large gas-fired plant in Zliten. Neither company has built power plants in Libya until now, but UCC has teamed up with Germany’s Siemens Energy, Tripoli-based Acesco Consulting Engineering and Services and Philadelphia-based Hill International, who bring substantial experience in major construction projects in the country, while AG has been promoting projects in Libya and the wider region for a decade.

Mustafa Sanalla’s detractors lack the political force to eject him from Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) and the chairman still has the loyalty of most of the staff and senior management. Instead, they are chipping away at the foundations of his strategy, while simultaneously trying to strangle him with bureaucracy. African Energy analyses the legal arguments exchanged between NOC, the Ministry of Oil and Gas and the Libyan Audit Bureau as they fight for control

Everyone is playing their own game in the struggle for control over decision-making in Libya’s oil and gas sector. In the aftermath of the aborted 2021 general election, the Tobruk-based House of Representatives is attempting to end the mandate of Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Al-Dabaiba’s Tripoli-based Government of National Unity. So far National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla has retained his grip, but he faces multiple attempts to limit his authority and undo the deals he struck to keep oil flowing. African Energy pieces together the roles played by Sanalla and Dabaiba alongside minister of oil and gas Mohamed Aoun and two powerful state institutions, the Libyan Audit Bureau and the Administrative Control Authority

In a polity with no choices, inertia rules. On 25 January, the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HOR) voted to give itself exclusive responsibility for choosing a new government to replace the one led by Abdel Hamid Al-Dabaiba. The decision opens the way to another lengthy constitutional impasse as it is unlikely the HOR has either the muscle or the credibility to eject the incumbent administration or to put its own appointees into the main ministerial portfolios in Tripoli.

TotalEnergies’ move to increase its interest in the Waha oil concessions, plus a separate agreement with General Electric Company of Libya (Gecol) to build 500MW of solar power, shows how the politically nimble oil major intends to trace a line between its fossil-fuelled past and the net zero future.

Hard work to restore the electricity supply industry via grid and plant maintenance, and the expected completion of three new gas-fired plants near the main coastal population centres, has raised the prospect of an end to a decade-long energy crisis. African Energy’s analysis of recent project developments offers a rare positive message from a still highly unstable Libya, writes John Hamilton.