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The wave of coups across the Sahel region over the past three years appears to have prompted a surge in defence spending across Africa – as newly-installed military regimes pour money into their own fiefdoms and other governments seek to bolster their security. International Institute for Strategic Studies data show total spending rose by more than one-fifth in 2023, but more money for soldiers and armaments means there is less to spend on social and infrastructure improvements.

With elections looming later this year, under-pressure President Cyril Ramaphosa used his 8 February State of the Nation Address to extol the ruling African National Congress party’s successes since the end of apartheid. However, his administration’s failure to deal with key election concerns – the electricity crisis, high unemployment, poverty and crime – could lead the ANC into uncharted territory come polling day, writes Tonderayi Mukeredzi.

French developer GreenYellow has agreed to sell its stakes in solar PV and hybrid power plants in Madagascar and Burkina Faso to Antananarivo-based conglomerate Axian Group.

The World Bank Group has approved a $202m finance facility to help address grid constraints and enable regional interconnections – opening the way for a doubling of hydropower imports from Ethiopia – under the second phase of its ten-year green energy programme for Kenya.

The British government’s indefinite postponement of the UK Africa Investment Summit from April suggests the Sunak administration’s domestic political calculations are now trumping strategic thinking on international relationships.  

Construction is expected to restart in mid-2024 at Mozambique LNG, with a revived financing package expected to be put in place after nearly three years of force majeure, and as the adjacent Rovuma LNG project is also resuming work.

The United Kingdom is guaranteeing an African Development Bank loan whose funds will be used to further improve Kenya Electricity Transmission Company (Ketraco)’s network and increase the deployment of renewable energy.

Nigerien oil production could increase fivefold as a result of the Niger-Benin Export Pipeline, which is expected soon to ship its first cargo from the Sèmè-Kraké terminal. With traders competing to land marketing rights for Niamey’s share of up to 90,000 b/d of crude supply, the revenues will significantly aid the military regime, whose hold on the government has consolidated as General Abdourahamane Tiani’s junta has sought to cement ties with China and others.

The strongmen in charge of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger plan to quit the regional Ecowas bloc, as Russia further enhances its military/business relationship with the Sahel troika and Central African Republic. While Niger believes its oil production could increase fivefold as its export pipeline to Benin starts up, and the Sahel states made significant progress in developing solar generation capacity in 2023, shifting political sands mean the largely western-funded PV boom is unlikely to be repeated, and the focus of China and others on resources plays leaves a big gap in international support for other sectors, writes Marc Howard.

An oversubscribed Eurobond issue in January indicated that Côte d’Ivoire’s strong economic performance – including 6.5% GDP growth, big infrastructure investments and Eni’s major Baleine oil and gas field – has been enough to allay investors’ concerns over the presidential succession and wider regional instability. These issues feature in the first of African Energy’s new series of Risk Management Reports (RMRs), which will provide updates, analysis and context on key political, social, economic and energy trends in countries across the continent. In line with the model established by African Energy’s sister publication Gulf States Newsletter (GSN), a ‘risk grade’ (explained below) is assigned to each country. A full list of African risk grades will follow soon.

Côte d’Ivoire’s three times oversubscribed $2.6bn dollar Eurobond issue underlines President Alassane Dramane Ouattara’s reputation for prudent economic management – a status that will add to pressures from supporters for ‘ADO’ to stand for a controversial fourth term – and offers some hope for under-pressure African borrowers who could benefit from renewed access to international capital markets and the relatively attractive interest rates CdI has secured.

The United Arab Emirates has stepped in to finance Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s long-desired oil refinery, as the UAE ramps up its sub-Saharan business activity. Junior foreign minister Sheikh Shakhbut Bin Nahyan Al-Nahyan has been making yet more visits around the continent, also taking in Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola’s Cabinda enclave in January.

Comoros President Azali Assoumani has secured yet another term in office through a disputed election, undermining prospects for progress and stability in the small island state where nearly half the population live in poverty and where a shortage of electricity is holding back development, writes Tonderayi Mukeredzi.

The Copperbelt Energy Corporation (CEC) raised $145m in an investment round led by private equity investor Affirma Capital in early January, quickly followed by the listing of a debut $54m ‘green bond’ on the Lusaka Securities Exchange. The bond is the first part of a planned $200m issuance programme, which was launched in December to fund an expansion of the company’s solar PV generation capacity. Managing director Owen Silavwe, gave African Energy an update on the progress of the 60MW solar PV project at Itimpi, which will take CEC’s solar capacity to 96MW.

Financing from Saudi-based International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation is part of a $600m three-year deal signed in May 2023 and will pay for imports of petroleum products needed for electricity generation.