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The security of main hydrocarbons producing zones is increasingly being questioned, but the interim authorities have stuck to their insistence that no foreign security operators will be deployed at facilities, writes John Hamilton

A second attack in the Algerian ‘hydrocarbons fortress’ and an emerging narrative in which western governments see an ‘arc of instability’ spanning the Sahara/Sahel region means IOCs must reassess their attitudes to regional risk following the traumatic In Aménas gas plant siege, write Jon Marks and John Hamilton.

Uganda’s parliament passed the long-awaited Upstream Bill on 7 December, paving the way for a resumption of licensing in open and relinquished areas. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development tabled two bills before parliament in February 2012, and the oil law has been the subject of vigorous debate since then. The Petroleum Exploration, Development and Production Bill 2012, known as the Upstream Bill, eventually passed by 149 votes to 39, and will be signed into law by President Yoweri Museveni.

It was presented by Cairo as a purely business matter when Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) and Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (Egas) in late April cancelled their 20-year gas supply contract with Israel, claiming pipeline operator East Mediterranean Gas Company (EMG) had not paid Egas for four months.

On paper at least, the new ceasefire signed on 9 May between South Sudan President Salva Kiir and his opponent Riek Machar is a step forward. Not only does it recommit them to the terms of the 23 January ceasefire, but provisions for a transitional unity government and fresh elections go several steps further. As well as Kiir’s government and Machar’s forces, the peace process would include a group of key figures detained until recently by the government, representatives of political parties and civil society, and religious leaders.

The US has revoked economic sanctions on Sudan and its government, some of which have been in place for 20 years. Other sanctions remain in place, in particular those specifically relating to the conflict in the Darfur region, as does Sudan’s official designation by the US as a state sponsor of terror, but the decision could have a significant positive impact on Sudan’s struggling economy.

Goodluck Jonathan’s new cabinet is packed with surprises that the acting president hopes will cement his authority and speed up government business.

A cabinet meeting on 19 September approved asking parliament to withdraw a long-delayed bill amending the Mineral & Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA), which has been under discussion since December 2012. Withdrawal of the amendment bill, which had been heavily criticised by the oil industry, will allow for oil and gas to be separated from mining and given their own law, a solution that will be widely welcomed by upstream petroleum companies.

The promise of generous social and economic assistance from the Tunisian government to the local community on Kerkennah Island in the Gulf of Gabès may not be enough to dissuade Petrofac from withdrawing from its gas production concession there. The UK-based company threatened to leave in September following eight months of protests and blockades which have severely interrupted its operations. Its threat prompted the government to offer a package of investments, which was accepted by local unions but not, it seems, by Petrofac.

The Niger Solar Electricity Access Project, agreed this summer by the World Bank Group, commits $45.55m in soft International Development Association credits for a programme costing nearly $50m. One of Africa’s poorest countries will receive support for stand-alone solar systems ($7m), rural electrification through service-based solar hybrid mini-grids ($8.2m) and the hybridisation of isolated thermal mini-grids and expansion of access ($22.46m); there is also $7.89m for implementation support and technical assistance.

Even before the coronavirus pandemic locked down governments, the introduction of the eco to replace the CFA franc and other West African currencies was in doubt amid technical and political problems. A key player in its creation, Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Dramane Ouattara, said in late January the eco’s launch could be delayed if participating states in the eight-member West African Economic and Monetary Union (Uemoa) and Anglophone countries including Nigeria and Ghana could not meet the basic convergence criteria to launch a single currency for the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas).

The cabinet has approved a draft treaty between South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo for the development of the Grand Inga hydro project. The draft was drawn up by a technical committee of officials from the two countries following the signing of a memorandum of understanding by their presidents in November.

The images of grief and riot that followed the assassination of opposition leader Chokri Belaïd on 6 February highlight the extent to which the first, and so far most successful, of the Arab Spring revolutions has been put in jeopardy by ideological and factional divisions among the country’s new leaders. The killing was quickly interpreted as marking a violent new phase in a region-wide struggle between democratic modernisers – who include secular politicians like Belaïd and President Moncef Marzouki, but also mainstream figures in the Islamist Ennahda party such as prime minister Hamadi Jebali – and ultra-radical Salafists.

Finance minister Henry Rotich has pleaded not guilty to corruption and fraud charges related to two hydroelectric dam projects. Rotich was arrested on 22 July. The charges relate to the procurement and payment process for the 80MW Arror River and 20MW Kimwarer projects, which have been under investigation by the Kenyan authorities since September.

The Libyan authorities are doing their best to lift blockades of export terminals and to restart production and exports, but, despite a breakthrough in the west, the main politically motivated stoppages in the Sirte Basin are proving intractable. If eastern production remains blocked, National Oil Corporation (NOC) will struggle to lift production above 700,000-800,000 b/d, approximately half of the post-revolution peak. On 23 September, output had risen to 620,000 b/d from 240,000 b/d on 17 September. Fields supplying the Marsa Al-Brega terminal were contributing 160,000 b/d, and the western offshore fields exporting from the Bouri and Al-Jurf floating terminals were producing approximately 80,000 b/d.