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Nigeria’s two main oil unions went on strike on 15 December, demanding that the government pass the long-delayed Petroleum Industry Bill, fix state-owned refineries and cut fuel prices in line with the fall in the price of crude, although pump prices are subsidised.While these are long-standing concerns, and strikes by white-collar union Pengassan and its manual workers’ affiliate Nupeng are not infrequent, commentators said union officials could be hoping for payoffs from a government keen to avoid fuel shortages in the run-up to presidential elections scheduled for 14 February.

Gasoline and diesel supply ran smoothly over the festive season, helped by sustained if expensive imports under a swaps arrangement by Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). Stemming gasoline smuggling through the drastic but effective decision of President Muhammadu Buhari to close the country’s land borders in August last year also played a key role in NNPC’s success, preventing flows of gasoline to Benin, Cameroon and other neighbouring states.

President Muhammadu Buhari finally responded to popular concerns over security by replacing his military top team on 26 January. With the economy hobbled by low oil prices and coronavirus, he has allowed a little more economic flexibility, although it remains to be seen whether his costly defence of the naira’s inflated value will be replaced by the foreign exchange market unification favoured by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

Nigeria has endured another long wait for President Muhammadu Buhari to announce his new government. Re-elected in February, Buhari finally swore in members of his new cabinet on 21 August. During the long interim, key officers of state have worked to steady the ship; Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor Godwin Emefiele has won praise for his stewardship of an under-pressure economy, while vice-president Yemi Osinbajo continues to reassure investors.

Turkey has embarked on a ‘beggar thy neighbour’ policy in the eastern Mediterranean involving diplomatic and military pressure, as its long-term political and economic interests are threatened by quicker-than-expected advances towards the establishment of a regional gas hub centred on Egypt and involving Cyprus, Israel and possibly even Lebanon. Italy’s Eni, the leading exploration company in the region, is in the firing line. In early February, the Turkish government picked fights over hydrocarbons exploration rights with Cyprus and – more surprisingly considering they are divided by the entire width of the eastern Mediterranean and share no borders – with Egypt.

Algeria may be earning more money in the new high oil and gas price environment but with major calls on state revenues from every quarter, Sonatrach is not in line for significant new funds to help it address falls in output. Some politically favoured projects may go ahead regardless of commercial logic, but a lot of expectation rests on the 20 memoranda of understanding signed by PDG Toufik Hakkar during his tenure even though most have not yet led to new investment commitments. 

Legal proceedings are due to be launched to challenge fundamental aspects of South Africa’s electricity policy, as the stakes in the battle between the government and environmentalists escalate, writes Dan Marks

Under pressure from the ruling African National Congress (ANC) National Executive Committee (NEC), not to mention court cases and inquiries, the government has relented and moved to rescind the reappointment of Brian Molefe as chief executive of Eskom.Public enterprises minister Lynne Brown made the announcement on 31 May after consensus was reached at an inter-ministerial committee appointed by President Jacob Zuma. The committee was led by justice and correctional services minister Michael Masutha and includes Brown, finance minister Malusi Gigaba and energy minister Mmamoloko Kubayi.

Energy minister Mmamoloko Kubayi announced on 1 September that the government intends to engage preferred bidders through the IPP Office to renegotiate all bids of more than R0.77 ($0.06)/kWh from bid windows 3.5 – a concentrated solar power only round – and 4. The announcement was greeted by a measure of positivity by industry associations but the intention to renegotiate is a major concern. The tariff cut-off announced by the minister includes every solar photovoltaic (PV) project bid in the fourth round – some 12 projects – as well as Kruisvallei hydro and Ngodwana biomass, also round 4, and Redstone concentrated solar power from round 3.5.

On the night of 30-31 March, President Jacob Zuma announced the momentous decision that he was firing respected finance minister Pravin Gordhan, along with nine others from the 35-member cabinet, among them energy minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson. Gordhan was replaced by Malusi Gigaba, an experienced politician considered to be a Zuma supporter.

After years of delay, things are moving forward in Malawi, with three solar IPPs set to commission this year – despite Covid-related problems – and new battery storage and wind projects expected by a reforming administration, writes Marc Howard In an unusual development for a country where economic and governance issues have for years served to delay investments, offtaker Power Market Ltd (PML)’s chief executive Rosemary Mkandawire has said Malawi had recently received “too many” applications from developers of solar power projects. The surge in interest comes as three independent power projects (IPPs) procured during a 2017 tender are due to be commissioned this year.

Construction has begun on the 19MWp/15MWac Cuamba solar PV plant with 2MW/7MWh battery storage in Mozambique, according to a statement by project sponsors UK-based Globeleq, private equity firm Source Capital and Electricidade de Moçambique (EdM) on 14 June.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has overturned global calculations about natural gas supply, especially in Europe, meaning projects previously thought unfeasible are now making progress. One possible beneficiary is the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline, strongly pushed by King Mohammed VI and supported by his friend President Muhammadu Buhari, which could now undergo a radical change to supply the European network.

European powers are lobbying Algeria to provide far more gas and to shift its position in Opec to encourage higher oil output, but production shortfalls and political considerations mean a shift away from its historic alignment with Russia is unlikely. Relations with Europe are made more complex by tensions with regional rival Morocco, but years of underinvestment and poor governance in Algeria’s energy sector mean it is in any case not well placed to respond to calls for higher output, writes Jon Marks

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has been followed by swingeing sanctions on the Russian economy and has led to European countries focusing hard on finding alternative sources of energy. African gas producers and a new generation of renewables exporters stand to benefit from this, but Russia still has friendships it can rely on around the continent, write James Gavin, John Hamilton and Jon Marks.