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With sky-high prices apparently a thing of the past, the outlook is gloomy for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, even in the most lucrative markets, such as Japan. With a predicted supply glut running into the next decade and price pressures accentuated by the fast-emerging spot market (for more on this see African Energy’s sister publication Gulf States News http://www.gsn-online.com/amid-shifting-global-gas-supply-gulf-states-emerge-as-their-own-best-market) only a few major projects are still expected to go ahead worldwide. In Africa, these include Eni’s Zohr field in Egypt and developments in Mozambique’s Rovuma Basin (as well as its smaller, more southerly fields supplying South Africa).

There are grounds for optimism that Mozambique’s planned $30bn liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project could provide a foundation for the ailing economy’s resurgence. Mozambique’s exports could plug a mid-2020s global LNG supply gap, and Portuguese gas distributor Galp’s vice-chairman, Carlos Gomes da Silva, has said that the “next decade should be the Mozambique decade”. The sums involved are substantial: petroleum and energy minister Max Tonela has said the Eni and Anadarko Petroleum Corporation projects are expected to provide the government with an estimated $77bn over their lifespans.

Mozambique’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are expected to be dispatched “on or around” 14 October, shipping industry publication Trade Winds said on 21 September citing sources working with Eni’s Coral Sul 3.4m t/yr floating liquid natural gas (FLNG) plant. The Rome-headquartered supermajor is said to be moving towards ordering a second FLNG vessel.

With revenue heavily dependent on oil receipts, the collapse in crude prices has left public sector finances in dire straits, reigniting talk of removing fuel subsidies. However, after weeks of silence, the government has deferred a decision, saying it will handle the issue with care. Buhari was quoted by spokesman Garba Shehu as saying: “When you touch the price of petroleum products, that has the effect of triggering price rises on transportation, food and rent.”

Chevron Corporation delivered record earnings and cashflow last year, with adjusted net Q4 2022 income of $7.4bn. The US major has got its debt down to $5bn, leaving an impressive gearing rate of just 3% at end-2022. Capital spending (capex) last year was $15.7bn, about $4bn more than the guidance. The company is looking at $17bn capex for 2023.

Africa’s largest economy is finally moving to resolve some of its most chronic failings, with another effort to privatise five power plants, huge multilateral support for the insolvent transmission and distribution sector, the planned implementation of the Petroleum Industry Bill and commitments to further reforms. Even so, African Energy’s research suggests the expected upturn will come nowhere close to meeting Nigeria’s needs in the period to 2025. Jon Marks* asks whether results can at least get closer to the promises of Nigeria’s electricity supply industry.

Maputo is battling not only a protracted Islamist insurgency in the north, but also a dire economic situation, which all the talk of future gas revenues and governance improvements does little to assuage. The economy contracted in 2020, compounding the impact of underwhelming growth in the years preceding the Covid-19 pandemic.

In the teeth of a severe and worsening currency crisis, Cairo has doubled down on its approach to hydrocarbons sector development, launching a new upstream bidding round, signing a number of bilateral exploration agreements and announcing two significant gas finds. Its regional energy hub plan has also received a boost, writes John Hamilton.

Nigerian petroleum minister Timipre Sylva has called on all parties to fast-track the African Union (AU)-endorsed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) from Nigeria to Algeria via Niger. The move follows federal government backing earlier this month for Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) to enter an agreement with the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to build the ambitious Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP).

Eni, ExxonMobil, Total and Statoil have all applied for blocks offshore Cyprus after Eni’s Zohr discovery opened a new play in the eastern Mediterranean. The Ministry of Energy, Commerce, Industry and Tourism said that it had received an application from Eni and Total with Eni as operator for Block 6. For Block 8, the ministry received applications from Eni, and from a consortium of Cairn Energy’s Capricorn Oil with Delek Drilling and Avner Oil Exploration.

Sovereign wealth fund Fonds Souverain d’Investissements Stratégiques (Fonsis) and government-owned Senegal Gas Network (SGN) have signed a joint development agreement with local developer West African Energy (WAE) and the Lagos-based Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) to develop Senegal’s national gas pipeline network as offshore gas is brought into operation.

Natural gas production in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) could double over the course of this decade, from 1.3m boe/d in 2021 to 2.7m boe/d in 2030, according to estimates by consultancy Rystad Energy.

The collapse of a deal under which the Segas liquefaction plant at Damietta would have restarted LNG exports in June is mostly due to the negative effect of the coronavirus pandemic. However, it highlights the difficult economics behind Cairo’s ambitions to revitalise its gas export business and eventually to turn itself into a regional energy trading hub. The plant stopped working in 2012 because Egypt did not have enough gas to supply it. Now there is almost certainly enough excess capacity but under current and possibly future market conditions the business does not add up.

Many critical questions remain to be answered, as supermajors keep their counsel on developing a major new offshore oil and gas play, but things seem to be moving ahead quickly with Chevron said to be re-entering the Orange Basin after two decades, the government saying it has agreed with Shell and TotalEnergies that production from their Graff and Venus discoveries should start ‘as soon as possible’, and BW Energy making promising noises about the Kudu gas-to-power play. Local players are set for a big payday as the Namibian upstream becomes a supermajor focus, writes Marc Howard.

What’s not to like for investors in President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s Egypt? The government’s International Monetary Fund-supported reform programme has greatly improved macroeconomic conditions; Egypt was a rare economy that reported some growth in Covid-plagued 2020, despite a huge downturn in tourism and other key revenue-earners. Its commitment to accelerating infrastructure development has sucked funds into global-scale solar and wind power programmes.