Search results

Egypt has a good claim to have been the most dynamic of all African countries in 2022, but 2023 may be its year of reckoning. The currency crisis now ravaging the economy could bring President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s futuristic edifice of renewables, green hydrogen (GH2), new cities, real estate, electric trains, sea water desalination and social infrastructure crashing down unless he can keep on side a wide coalition. This includes the IMF and Gulf monarchies which are Egypt’s largest creditors, the military, whose economic prerogatives must now be curtailed, a hard-pressed population, and international business partners.

One region seems above all others to stubbornly buck the positive political and economic trends recorded over two decades by African Energy: it comprises the six Communauté Economique et Monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale (Cemac) countries and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Events in the last month, including a failed coup in Gabon and contested elections in DRC, underline Central Africa’s chronic crisis of leadership. Such political behaviours are increasingly seen as an anachronism in a world structured by social media, as well as by older social bonds and traditional patterns of coercion by elites.

Some pessimistic observers are heralding the end of the independent power producer (IPP) era, with the potential demise of actors and project models that have dominated private sector investment in electricity generation since the 1990s. With criticism of IPP costs providing grist to populist mills across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) – feeding into narratives of western ‘exploitation’ and anger over rising living costs – politicians have been calling for change, while developers are finding market conditions ever more challenging.

Less than a year from elections, numerous candidates are eyeing up the prize of taking over from President Muhammadu Buhari. 

Shortfalls in financial flows, failures to deal with debt and a lack of voice in global decision-making arenas are longstanding issues that African leaders are now seeking to address, with leaders from Ghana, Kenya and Zambia setting out a blueprint for reform covering everything from UN Security Council seats to the reallocation of $100bn-worth of assets held by the IMF. The extent to which these ambitious goals can be achieved could prove critical to Africa’s ability to finance and structure the energy transition on its terms – but the continent’s governments also need to accelerate their own reforms.

Sudan may be on the verge of a de facto split, its infrastructure is in ruins and populations are struggling to survive a global-scale humanitarian crisis, but there is little incentive for either side to back down one year after militia leader Hemedti launched his RSF’s campaign against erstwhile ally the Sudan Armed Forces regime. While attention is focused on conflicts elsewhere, a major African country is being destroyed for personal advantage in a conflict marked by significant intervention from the wider region.

Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dabaiba may just have won another round in the unedifying slugfest for control over Libya’s government and resources. It seemed like a mistake when Dabaiba replaced National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla with former Qadhafi-era Central Bank of Libya governor Farhat Ben Gdara in late July, but the move seems to have bought the PM more time.

Voters are going to the polls earlier than expected, on 7 September, with incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune as the ruling establishment’s candidate, having overcome some powerful décideur (decision-maker) factions’ doubts about his credentials to drive Algeria forwards in a second term. Able to pull the levers of presidential power, Tebboune will seek to present a record of solid first term achievement, although many of his electorate know that results have been mixed, at best, especially given the buffer of higher oil and gas prices his administration has enjoyed. Tebboune has much to prove.

A lot of officials, developers and financiers are working very hard to bring electricity supply projects to market and into service, but persistent bottlenecks across the value chain still too often stall otherwise good projects, according to African Energy Live Data’s analysis of the deal flow. The completion of stalled projects, along with a roll-out of mini-grids and decentralised solutions, would lead poorer consumers further towards universal access, while giving wealthier urban populations and commercial clients improved services and more productive uses of energy.

The CNSP regime has triumphantly commemorated the anniversary of its ousting of President Bazoum. But the festivities merely distract from a worsening security situation that has seen major oil investor CNPC suspend work in the Agadem Rift Basin, part of a $7bn investment including a pipeline which remains idle over a dispute with Benin. Niger’s woes lay bare the folly of the chauvinistic politics advanced by the Sahel’s juntas, writes Marc Howard.

Climate change – closely linked to the intractable issues of poverty and inequality – is an issue preoccupying policy-makers around the world, but its impacts are particularly acute across swathes of Africa. But while calls for swifter action to unlock larger amounts of financing were paramount at the inaugural Africa Climate Summit (ACS), held in Nairobi on 4-6 September, it was also apparent that views differ widely on how to address the challenge.

As President William Samoei Ruto celebrated his first year in State House on 13 September, he has been able to bask in the global leadership opportunity offered by Kenya’s role in crafting an unprecedented African policy approach to the climate crisis ahead of COP28 in Dubai.

On a wave of optimism about its offshore Rovuma Basin reserves, Mozambique has emerged as a poster boy for the ‘Africa rising’ agenda. With at least 100tcf of conventional gas reserves – and potentially more than double that amount, according to a range of project sources – this global-scale resource should drive the emergence of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export industry and substantial domestic and regional electricity supply in the next decade. Mozambique enthusiasts add that the country enjoys several other advantages, including proximity to markets and relatively streamlined decision-making (especially when compared to its potential rival for LNG export markets, neighbouring Tanzania).

Lenders have appetite for Africa’s more attractive sovereign credits, including fashionable francophone markets Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal. When in March Senegal raised $2.2bn in a eurobond issue, its Ministry of Finance received $10.3bn-worth of orders for the euro/dollar-denominated facility. It brought African eurobond issues to a total $10.7bn in Q1 2018, following borrowing by Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya. This was more than the 2016 total, and more than half of the $18bn 2017 record, Bloomberg reported.

As Africa enters the 2020s, issues of climate change and sustainability have gained greater urgency even if not everyone agrees on the way ahead. With desertification and water shortages affecting many regions, Africa has joined the stop-start transition away from a carbon-based economy; the percentage of on- and off-grid renewables is growing in the energy mix, with solar, and to a lesser extent wind, taking a lead, promoted by large public procurement projects and ever more private initiatives.