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One region seems above all others to stubbornly buck the positive political and economic trends recorded over two decades by African Energy: it comprises the six Communauté Economique et Monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale (Cemac) countries and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Events in the last month, including a failed coup in Gabon and contested elections in DRC, underline Central Africa’s chronic crisis of leadership. Such political behaviours are increasingly seen as an anachronism in a world structured by social media, as well as by older social bonds and traditional patterns of coercion by elites.

Climate change – closely linked to the intractable issues of poverty and inequality – is an issue preoccupying policy-makers around the world, but its impacts are particularly acute across swathes of Africa. But while calls for swifter action to unlock larger amounts of financing were paramount at the inaugural Africa Climate Summit (ACS), held in Nairobi on 4-6 September, it was also apparent that views differ widely on how to address the challenge.

As President William Samoei Ruto celebrated his first year in State House on 13 September, he has been able to bask in the global leadership opportunity offered by Kenya’s role in crafting an unprecedented African policy approach to the climate crisis ahead of COP28 in Dubai.

Some pessimistic observers are heralding the end of the independent power producer (IPP) era, with the potential demise of actors and project models that have dominated private sector investment in electricity generation since the 1990s. With criticism of IPP costs providing grist to populist mills across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) – feeding into narratives of western ‘exploitation’ and anger over rising living costs – politicians have been calling for change, while developers are finding market conditions ever more challenging.

Less than a year from elections, numerous candidates are eyeing up the prize of taking over from President Muhammadu Buhari. 

Shortfalls in financial flows, failures to deal with debt and a lack of voice in global decision-making arenas are longstanding issues that African leaders are now seeking to address, with leaders from Ghana, Kenya and Zambia setting out a blueprint for reform covering everything from UN Security Council seats to the reallocation of $100bn-worth of assets held by the IMF. The extent to which these ambitious goals can be achieved could prove critical to Africa’s ability to finance and structure the energy transition on its terms – but the continent’s governments also need to accelerate their own reforms.

Sudan may be on the verge of a de facto split, its infrastructure is in ruins and populations are struggling to survive a global-scale humanitarian crisis, but there is little incentive for either side to back down one year after militia leader Hemedti launched his RSF’s campaign against erstwhile ally the Sudan Armed Forces regime. While attention is focused on conflicts elsewhere, a major African country is being destroyed for personal advantage in a conflict marked by significant intervention from the wider region.

A potentially radical shift in major donors’ provision of overseas development assistance (ODA) is reflected in more funds being channelled into projects intended to stimulate business and reinforce security, rather than following the stricter definition of aid agreed over many years within the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) structure. Where aid flows have increased in the past year, in France and Germany for example, this has been linked to governments allocating ODA to their domestic spending on migrants, rather than to traditional development projects.

Is anyone listening to National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla? He has issued repeated appeals to the international community to change its approach to the crisis in Libya to help his institution to better carry out its functions and to protect the interests of the Libyan people.At Chatham House in January, he described NOC as “the best guarantee that Libya will remain as a unitary state” and called for the international community to support its independence.

The purchase of BG Group by Royal Dutch Shell confirmed predictionsthat the falling oil price would trigger a spate of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the upstream industry. It points to a need for even the biggest players to build scale in developing their natural gas trade; for Shell, BG’s assets in Australia and the Atlantic Basin (Brazil) will help to secure a dominant position in Asian and other key markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The Department of Energy has released the draft Integrated Energy Planning (IEP) report for public consultation “as part of a process to formulate an integrated energy plan, which will outline a recommended energy roadmap for South Africa and guide investment decisions”. A period of public discussion will follow, as different stakeholder groups try to hammer out consensus on a sustainable long-term trajectory for the country (the IEP looks towards 2050). The IEP – with the expected new Integrated Resource Plan – will encompass Eskom’s plans for more coal-fired capacity, and also consolidate the so far successful effort to install major renewables capacity; it should also push forward the debate over new gas and nuclear infrastructure.

There is speculation that Rachid Ghannouchi’s Islamist Ennahda (Renaissance) party will gain a big slice of the vote when Tunisia goes to the polls on 23 October to elect the constituent assembly that will draw up a new constitution, and that polling will be followed by significant changes in the interim government ahead of an elected administration emerging by H2 2012.

South Africans, with President Jacob Zuma at their head, have long dreaded Nelson Mandela’s death, as not only a sad close to a major chapter in history, but also because it will force the nation to look more closely at its values, leadership and governance. Many South Africans do not like what they see, to the extent that Mandela’s political legacy may no longer be the ruling African National Congress (ANC)’s sole preserve, as new movements emerge on the left and the Democratic Alliance (DA) seeks to widen its appeal.

Zimbabwe is highly unlikely to eradicate the crony capitalist structures that have favoured the Mugabe clan and other Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) grandees any time soon. But the president’s departure could favour a measured transition, building on initiatives to normalise the economy undertaken by regime officials such as Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) governor John Mangudya and Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) managing director Noah Fari Gwariro. Even at 92 years old, it seems imprudent to write off President Robert Mugabe, whose ruthless political cunning has seen off international sanctions and domestic challenges.

The newsflow out of South Africa is unprecedented in its volume and the seriousness of the allegations in its content. The run-up to the African National Congress (ANC) elections, which will take place during the 54th National Conference in Kimberley on 16-20 December and are likely to decide the next president of the country, has seen a firestorm of accusations and political manoeuvring with the energy sector at its heart.