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The dynamics of the power struggle in Libya are changing fast, with the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House in January expected to give extra credibility to the resurgent Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, and to further undermine the already failing Government of National Accord (GNA). However, converting Haftar’s precarious Cyrenaican tribal alliance, which also includes influential elements from the former regime and Salafists, into a national movement capable of extending its rule over Fezzan and Tripolitania presents vast challenges.

National Oil Corporation (NOC) will be paid less than one-fifth of the budget it has requested from the Government of National Accord (GNA) to maximise increases in oil production over the coming year. According to the framework set out by chairman Mustafa Sanalla following a high-level meeting in London on 1 November, NOC needs $2.5bn to get production back to 800,000 b/d in 2017. However, it appears that it will get the equivalent of $425m. The decision reflects both the lack of authority within Libya’s ruling institutions and a desperate lack of cash within the Treasury, which cannot even spare funds for potential revenue-generating investments.

On 5 October, General Electric Company of Libya (Gecol) deputy executive manager Dr Mahmoud Al-Warfalli told a news conference at the headquarters of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli that the board had “met with company officials to ascertain the status of the network and to identify the main problems and tasks”. He said the result of this was an “integrated plan to resolve the crisis in three stages”. The first and most urgent of these is to overcome technical and financial blockages to bring out-of-service plants back into production.

The lightning takeover of export terminals by Libyan National Army (LNA) forces under the command of General Khalifa Haftar has thrown Libya’s struggling political process into a state of confusion from which it is unlikely to recover. Intended as a move to destabilise the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and its Presidency Council (PC), it may well lead to their collapse. If so, this would also fatally undermine the policy pursued for the past 18 months by western European governments and the United States via the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (Unsmil).

A high-profile meeting at the Ras Lanuf oil terminal between United Nations Support Mission in Libya (Unsmil) chief Martin Kobler and central region Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) commander Ibrahim Al-Jathran on 21 July was intended to herald a breakthrough deal that would result in oil exports restarting imminently. A payoff for Jathran was approved by the UN, the Presidency Council and, after some protest, by National Oil Corporation (NOC). However, both Unsmil and the council appear to have underestimated both the complexity of Libya’s oil industry and the competing interests in its oil crescent.

A new blockade of Marsa al-Harigah port in eastern Libya by an armed group that has not been involved in previous disruptions has prevented tankers from loading crude and caused a sharp drop in exports, which had previously been running at about 360,000 b/d. The protesters, from a faction of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), are seeking payment of five months’ back wages rather than any major political concessions. But the action shows how easily production and exports can still be disrupted by relatively small groups.

Against the odds, General Electric Company of Libya (Gecol) has installed the first unit of a new gas-fired power station just outside Sirte, which is still under the control of Islamic State (IS). But this did not prevent Presidency Council leader Fayez Sarraj from dismissing the senior board the following day.On 16 July, the Ministry of Electricity announced on its Facebook page that the first 350MW unit of the Khalij-Sirte steam turbine power station had started operation.

The reunification of the management of Libya’s rival national oil corporations after more than a year of division is an important victory for the Tripoli-based chairman Mustafa Sanalla. His authority over Libya’s oil industry is now unquestioned even in Cyrenaica, which until recently was making repeated efforts to set up its own oil export deals and to establish an independent stream of oil revenue.

In contrast to the problems paralysing Libya’s onshore production, the Mellitah Oil & Gas consortium has given Technip a contract for the Bahr Essalam Phase II gas development in the central Mediterranean. The field will be tied back to the Sabratha platform, which is situated some 110km off the Libyan coast in a water depth of about 190 metres. Mellitah is a consortium of National Oil Corporation and Eni North Africa.

The resolution of a blockade at the Marsa al-Harigah terminal in mid-May averted what many expected to be a highly damaging financial and political crisis. However, it leaves unresolved the main grievances that provoked leaders in Cyrenaica to shut the port and deprive Tripoli of revenues earned from the sale of crude produced in the east of the country. The continued political disagreements and the expected delivery by a Russian company of LYD4bn worth of bank notes to the Benghazi-based administration will provide fertile ground for further disputes over both money and oil.

Forces in Cyrenaica opposed to the United Nations-imposed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli have provoked a definitive challenge to its authority by blockading oil exports from the only major terminal still working in Libya. The damaging financial consequences of this action will be felt across the whole country, and the total shutdown of production – possibly within days – will also cause immense technical problems. But for those behind the action, such concerns may now be secondary as they attempt to shift the balance of the conflict in favour of the east, while also preparing for a likely military confrontation in the central zone presently dominated by Islamic State (IS).

Western governments are determined to interdict the Indian-flagged tanker containing a cargo of Libya crude sold to an Emirati buyer by the Cyrenaica-based parallel management of National Oil Corporation (NOC). On 27 April, the vessel was located in waters south-east of Malta, having been turned back by the authorities in Valletta the previous day. Failure to prevent it from unloading the cargo and completing the transaction in defiance of a United Nations Security Council resolution banning unauthorised crude exports would destroy the credibility of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA).

The management of National Oil Corporation (NOC) based in the eastern Libyan town of Al-Bayda has suspended its attempts to sell oil independently from the established NOC management in Tripoli since the United Nations (UN)-backed Presidency Council led by Faiz Serraj moved to the capital. But the legitimacy of what the UN and its backers say is now the recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) is far from established. The dominant power brokers in Cyrenaica are still negotiating the terms of their endorsement of the new administration. Without their support it will be constitutionally weak, and failure to agree will start a new conflict over control of Sirte Basin oil infrastructure.

In light of the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO)’s expectation that Libya’s government of national accord (GNA) will be approved “within the coming weeks”, Mr Justice Blair, presiding over the Commercial Court in London on 7 March, adjourned a case between rival claimants to the chairmanship of the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA). In doing so, he avoided, or at least postponed, an almost impossible judgement which also threatened to embarrass the British government and expose the weakness of the international position towards Libya.

The first shipment of crude contracted by the House of Representatives (HoR)-appointed management of National Oil Corporation in Al-Bayda will be loaded this month and transported to a major shipping port in Europe. “I am going to break this thing, Insha’Allah,” Edward Loyd, chief executive of California-based Loyd Capital Partners, told African Energy on 9 March. He said the HoR-aligned Central Bank of Libya had just issued a letter confirming the bank account to which payment for the crude should be made.