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Some pessimistic observers are heralding the end of the independent power producer (IPP) era, with the potential demise of actors and project models that have dominated private sector investment in electricity generation since the 1990s. With criticism of IPP costs providing grist to populist mills across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) – feeding into narratives of western ‘exploitation’ and anger over rising living costs – politicians have been calling for change, while developers are finding market conditions ever more challenging.

The Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (Masen) will soon launch a tender for a 3GW, 1,600km high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission line to take power from renewable energy plants in Dakhla, in the disputed Sahara region, up to Kenitra and Tangier in the north.

This report collects togther a series of articles on Uganda's energy sector that were published in early November 2023 as part of African Energy's Issue 494 reporting. The package also includes maps focused on the oil and gas sector and power infrastructure.

With first oil expected from Lake Albert by early 2026, an array of associated infrastructure is under development, including the controversial Eacop pipeline. Shunned by western financiers, Chinese debt is expected to rescue Eacop, with a financing package due to be finalised in the coming weeks. Kampala has also signalled its appetite to intervene in energy markets by taking a majority stake in the Kabalega refinery, writes Marc Howard in Hoima.

With oil field developments proceeding at pace, the Kampala government has signalled its intention to play a more robust role in economic management, with plans to renationalise the electricity distribution network and take an expensive majority stake in the Kabalega refinery development. Meanwhile financing for the Eacop pipeline is expected to close soon, with Chinese lenders stepping in where western financiers have refused to go, writes Marc Howard, recently in Kampala and Hoima.

Published November 2023, this map illustrates major violent events in Mali between 22 October 2022 and 20 October 2023. The security incidents are marked with an indication of reported fatality numbers. The base map shows the location of power infrastructure, including generation sites and power transmission and distribution lines. Power generation facilities that are operating, under construction or planned are shown by type – including liquid fuels, natural gas, hybrid, hydroelectricity, solar PV and biomass/biogas. Generation sites are marked with different sized circles to show sites of 1-9MW, 10-99MW and 100-499MW. Existing and future transmission and distribution lines are shown ranging from 90kV and under to 330kV. Power generation data was drawn from our African Energy Live Data platform, which contains project level detail on power plants and projects across Africa. The map is presented as a PDF file using eps graphics, meaning that there is no loss of resolution as the file is enlarged.

Russian state-owned nuclear power company Rosatom has signed an agreement with the Malian government to cooperate on “peaceful uses of atomic energy”. Following Colonel Assimi Goïta’s seizure of power in August 2020, Moscow has been a strong backer of the regime, as demonstrated by its scuppering of an United Nations Security Council resolution in August that would have renewed sanctions on Bamako.

Ara Petroleum Tanzania (APT) has confirmed the completion of its acquisition of an additional 25% interest in the Ruvuma production-sharing agreement (PSA) from London AIM-listed Scirocco Energy.

Published November 2023, this map focuses on the upstream oil and gas activity in the Lake Albert region of Uganda and the route of the planned East African crude oil pipeline (Eacop). Block operators and oil and gas fields are marked, with the boundaries of exploration and production licences shown alongside discoveries that are under appraisal. The planned route of the Eacop pipeline is shown as it passes through Uganda to the Tanzania coast at Tanga. Associated downstream infrastructure  is also shown including tanker terminals and refineries. An inset focuses on the planned oil refinery and infrastructure at the Kabalega Industrial Complex. A text panel provides details of Lake Albert developers, contractors, shareholders, insurers and financiers. The map is available as a PDF file using eps graphics, meaning that there is no loss of resolution as the file is enlarged.  

Security is swiftly deteriorating in Mali, with security forces and their allies from the Russian Wagner mercenary group struggling to contain the jihadist insurgency and renewed attacks from a coalition of Tuareg-dominated northern separatist groups. The rapid escalation is reflected in Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled) data, which shows 206 fatalities from armed conflict or political violence from 1-20 October alone.

Were projects assessed solely on their economic and social impact, the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (Eacop) and Lake Albert would probably be widely praised. Uganda needs both the energy and investment the projects bring. But the projects have drawn fierce criticism from environmental campaigners and NGOs, in Uganda and beyond in a concerted, high-profile campaign that has registered successes.

Nigeria has succeeded in overturning a $6.6bn arbitral award made against it in 2017, with the High Court in London ruling the award had been obtained by fraud. The High Court ruled that British Virgin Islands-registered Process and Industrial Development (P&ID) had engaged in “the most severe abuses of the arbitral process” in winning its 2017 case against the Nigerian government over a failed gas supply and processing deal.

The issue leads with a special report on Uganda, where oil field developments are proceeding at pace and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline is nearing financial close. The Kampala government has signalled its intention to play a more robust role in economic management, with plans to renationalise the electricity distribution network and take an expensive majority stake in the Kabalega refinery development. African Energy also examines the swiftly deteriorating security situation in Mali, with security forces and their allies from the Russian Wagner mercenary group struggling to contain the jihadist insurgency and renewed attacks from a coalition of Tuareg-dominated northern separatist groups. Power coverage leads with a closer look at the long-delayed  Baynes hydropower project, which is undergoing further changes to its design, amid fast-changing market conditions on both sides of the Angolan-Namibian border and in the wider region. The African Energy View appraises the future of the independent power producer (IPP) era, as actors that have dominated private electricity developments struggle to make a return on investment. A lack of trust and transparency are among key issues that need to be addressed in an undoubtedly tough market, along with a deeper overhaul of governance. As grid-linked IPPs suffer, the rise of distributed commercial and industrial power projects continues to attract finance. Oil and gas coverage leads with Morocco, where UK-headquartered independents are leading the way in developing onshore and offshore gas resources, as the government seeks to boost domestic supplies and reduce its reliance on expensive imports via Spain. African Energy also looks at an expected fresh burst of activity in Namibia’s Orange Basin. Downstream coverage looks at the current state of sub-Saharan Africa's refining capabilities amid reports that Nigeria’s Dangote refinery appears to have missed its expected start date.

Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery appears to have missed its expected start date in October, reportedly due to crude supply issues. However, Nigeria’s downstream sector will receive another boost with the expected return to service of the 110,000 b/d Kaduna refinery in 2024, writes James Gavin.

The East African Crude Oil Pipeline project has attracted strong opposition from environment pressure groups intent on stopping new oil and gas developments. However, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (MEMD) permanent secretary Irene Bateebe told African Energy the project would help Uganda’s energy transition plans.