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Shortfalls in financial flows, failures to deal with debt and a lack of voice in global decision-making arenas are longstanding issues that African leaders are now seeking to address, with leaders from Ghana, Kenya and Zambia setting out a blueprint for reform covering everything from UN Security Council seats to the reallocation of $100bn-worth of assets held by the IMF. The extent to which these ambitious goals can be achieved could prove critical to Africa’s ability to finance and structure the energy transition on its terms – but the continent’s governments also need to accelerate their own reforms.

Kenya | Ghana | Zambia
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Following a recent maritime defence agreement, Ankara has further increased its commitment to Somalia by signing an intergovernmental agreement covering offshore oil and gas exploration as Türkiye makes further inroads into the region.

Somalia
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With crude now flowing through the 1,982km Niger-Benin Export Pipeline, a fivefold increase in oil production beckons for Niger, amid signs that Niamey is emerging from post-coup isolation and has mended ties with Ecowas and the US – a critical factor in developing the greenfield uranium mine at Dasa.

Niger
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Mining companies are planning to cut thousands of jobs in response to negative domestic and international factors, which could cause wider economic problems and difficulties for the government in the run-up to the late May general election. Critical minerals offer huge potential, but structural constraints weigh heavy on investors.

South Africa
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The economic logic of the subsidy cuts, devaluation and other reforms enacted after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took over on Aso Rock in mid-2023 was clear: the fuel subsidy alone was costing some $10bn/yr, risking state insolvency. But the consequences of Tinubu’s reforms have caused immense difficulties for a majority of Nigeria's estimated 226m population, as the price of staples soars.

Nigeria
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Interim President Colonel Mamady Doumbouya used a television broadcast to sack Prime Minister Bernard Gomou, accusing his government of corruption, and has since sought to court some opposition factions – in a process confirmed with Mamadou Oury Bah’s appointment as PM – but pressures are mounting from opposition politicians, trade unions and other angry stakeholders.

Guinea
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As Namibia enters a new period of hydrocarbons and minerals-driven development, the death of President Hague Geingob has set up a political transition in which vice president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is favourite to become the country’s first female leader at elections in November, but nothing is certain as Swapo factions manoeuvre for position.

Namibia
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New Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is a Swapo veteran who is favourite to become Namibia’s first female president after elections are held in November, but who faces challenges, not least from within the ruling party. African Energy also gives an assessment of the man she hopes to ultimately to succeed, Namibia’s President Hage Geingob, who died on 4 February after a battle with cancer.

Namibia
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President Macky Sall’s decision to postpone the 25 February presidential election until 15 December exacerbated an already poisonous atmosphere in Senegal. His 19 February decision to reverse that decision should lead to an election being held very soon, but political tensions will persist. African Energy’s Risk Management Report focuses on political risk indicators in a country that has long been favoured by donors and investors, and whose natural resources industries are booming as offshore oil and natural gas exports beckon. With attention firmly directed towards gas-to-power development, most other aspects of electricity industry reform, such as the unbundling of utility Senelec and introduction of wheeling have been left on hold – and further delays are likely.

Senegal
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President Kaïs Saïed’s appointment of former EBRD executive Ouael Chouchane as secretary of state for energy transition is a rare optimistic sign for the Tunisian renewable power sector, following years of drift.

Tunisia
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The wave of coups across the Sahel region over the past three years appears to have prompted a surge in defence spending across Africa – as newly-installed military regimes pour money into their own fiefdoms and other governments seek to bolster their security. International Institute for Strategic Studies data show total spending rose by more than one-fifth in 2023, but more money for soldiers and armaments means there is less to spend on social and infrastructure improvements.

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With elections looming later this year, under-pressure President Cyril Ramaphosa used his 8 February State of the Nation Address to extol the ruling African National Congress party’s successes since the end of apartheid. However, his administration’s failure to deal with key election concerns – the electricity crisis, high unemployment, poverty and crime – could lead the ANC into uncharted territory come polling day, writes Tonderayi Mukeredzi.

South Africa
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Construction is expected to restart in mid-2024 at Mozambique LNG, with a revived financing package expected to be put in place after nearly three years of force majeure, and as the adjacent Rovuma LNG project is also resuming work.

Mozambique
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Nigerien oil production could increase fivefold as a result of the Niger-Benin Export Pipeline, which is expected soon to ship its first cargo from the Sèmè-Kraké terminal. With traders competing to land marketing rights for Niamey’s share of up to 90,000 b/d of crude supply, the revenues will significantly aid the military regime, whose hold on the government has consolidated as General Abdourahamane Tiani’s junta has sought to cement ties with China and others.

Benin | Niger
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An oversubscribed Eurobond issue in January indicated that Côte d’Ivoire’s strong economic performance – including 6.5% GDP growth, big infrastructure investments and Eni’s major Baleine oil and gas field – has been enough to allay investors’ concerns over the presidential succession and wider regional instability. These issues feature in the first of African Energy’s new series of Risk Management Reports (RMRs), which will provide updates, analysis and context on key political, social, economic and energy trends in countries across the continent. In line with the model established by African Energy’s sister publication Gulf States Newsletter (GSN), a ‘risk grade’ (explained below) is assigned to each country. A full list of African risk grades will follow soon.

Côte d'Ivoire