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The wave of coups across the Sahel region over the past three years appears to have prompted a surge in defence spending across Africa – as newly-installed military regimes pour money into their own fiefdoms and other governments seek to bolster their security. International Institute for Strategic Studies data show total spending rose by more than one-fifth in 2023, but more money for soldiers and armaments means there is less to spend on social and infrastructure improvements.

With elections looming later this year, under-pressure President Cyril Ramaphosa used his 8 February State of the Nation Address to extol the ruling African National Congress party’s successes since the end of apartheid. However, his administration’s failure to deal with key election concerns – the electricity crisis, high unemployment, poverty and crime – could lead the ANC into uncharted territory come polling day, writes Tonderayi Mukeredzi.

The strongmen in charge of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger plan to quit the regional Ecowas bloc, as Russia further enhances its military/business relationship with the Sahel troika and Central African Republic. While Niger believes its oil production could increase fivefold as its export pipeline to Benin starts up, and the Sahel states made significant progress in developing solar generation capacity in 2023, shifting political sands mean the largely western-funded PV boom is unlikely to be repeated, and the focus of China and others on resources plays leaves a big gap in international support for other sectors, writes Marc Howard.

Comoros President Azali Assoumani has secured yet another term in office through a disputed election, undermining prospects for progress and stability in the small island state where nearly half the population live in poverty and where a shortage of electricity is holding back development, writes Tonderayi Mukeredzi.

The Copperbelt Energy Corporation (CEC) raised $145m in an investment round led by private equity investor Affirma Capital in early January, quickly followed by the listing of a debut $54m ‘green bond’ on the Lusaka Securities Exchange. The bond is the first part of a planned $200m issuance programme, which was launched in December to fund an expansion of the company’s solar PV generation capacity. Managing director Owen Silavwe, gave African Energy an update on the progress of the 60MW solar PV project at Itimpi, which will take CEC’s solar capacity to 96MW.

Shell is selling Nigerian subsidiary SPDC, with the onshore and shallow-water operator going to a consortium of local companies allied to industry veteran Samuel Dossou-Aworet for a sum of up to $2.4bn the supermajor is helping to fund. While Shell is retaining some other valuable Nigerian assets, it adds to a trend of international majors exiting all but their big deep-water oil and gas plays, following recent deals by ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies and Eni. African Energy analyses several aspects of a complex deal.

The latest version of the South African government’s Integrated Resource Plan, issued in early January and now open for public feedback, advocates the longer-term use of coal-fired power plants and reduces renewables’ role in the overall energy mix, prompting a strong reaction from industry observers, as critics claim it will set back the energy transition, writes Tonderayi Mukeredzi.

Félix Tshisekedi has won a second presidential term and his coalition a big parliamentary majority in Democratic Republic of Congo. But victory comes in the face of complaints from his opponents, unease among allies and a toxic blend of rebellions, insolvency and social discontent.

International oil companies in Gabon have adopted a ‘business as usual’ approach since General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema’s coup last August, as expressed by Vaalco Energy’s chief executive George Maxwell in an interview with African Energy. But the government’s decision to step in and use the state-owned Gabon Oil Company to acquire Assala Energy – thus sidelining French independent Maurel & Prom which had planned to buy the business – points to a more activist approach from the recently-installed authorities in Libreville.

Aliko Dangote’s eventual 650,000 b/d capacity plant has received 6m barrels of crude to date and is about to start producing diesel, aviation fuel and liquified petroleum gas.

Félix Tshisekedi has won a second presidential term in Democratic Republic of Congo. The result has been contested by his opponents, who were crying foul long before most of the country went to the polls on 20 December and have continued to point to major irregularities thereafter.

Renewed momentum for nuclear energy was underlined by a COP28 climate summit pledge to triple global capacity by 2050 – although huge capital costs pose daunting obstacles to the several African countries who are looking at potential atomic power developments. A new generation of small reactors, while not yet commercially viable, may offer a solution for some to add significant capacity, writes Marc Howard.

The final COP28 communiqué included – for the first time – a commitment to eventually phase out fossil fuels, going beyond previous declarations that focused on coal. However, there are few signs that Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) members and their Opec+ allies, led by Russia, have any intention of allowing their core source of revenues to disappear anytime soon. So what can we learn from recent statements by oil producers – including Opec+’s quota commitments at a meeting on 30 November – and from leaks and comments made during COP28?

The COP28 climate talks in Dubai ended on a more positive note than many had thought possible, but for all the talk of eventually phasing out fossil fuels, multi-billions of dollars-worth of climate finance and operationalising the long-awaited Loss and Damage Fund, the crowds who descended on Dubai left with much to do and huge financial shortfalls to make up.

To keep South Africa’s faltering flagship Just Energy Transition Programme (JETP) on the road, the African Development Bank (AfDB) and United Kingdom government approved a $1bn guarantee to allow the bank to increase its lending capacity to the programme.