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General Abdel-Fattah Burhan’s 25 October coup to depose his government partner (and key western ally) Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok dismantled their carefully crafted civilian-military Transitional Council two years into its three-year term. It brought crowds onto the streets and consternation to Sudan’s friends in Washington, Paris and the region – although the empowering of the military/security elite is a less troubling prospect for authoritarian stakeholders such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Russia.

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The pledge by China’s President Xi Jinping to end state financing of overseas coal projects – with huge ramifications for several coal-producing and importing countries – set off a lively debate about its possible ramifications. Fears about the consequence for Africa may have been overstated, according to one industry figure who responded to African Energy’s article.

Kenya | Botswana | South Africa
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 The Independent Power Producer Office (IPP Office) announced on 28 October that 25 preferred bidders had been selected with a combined contracted capacity of 2,583MW, in the fifth round of the renewable energy IPP procurement programme (REIPPP5).

South Africa
Issue 449 - 03 November 2021

Making forests more sustainable

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Many African countries see themselves as green sinks, with substantial forest cover which absorbs carbon from the atmosphere, but for which they receive no compensation. The issue – along with a pact to reduce methane emissions – featured prominently on 2 November, when the leaders of more than 100 countries committed to end deforestation by 2030;

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Speeches made by African leaders at the 1-2 November opening of COP26 provided some insights into how they plan to move ahead with decarbonisation, while ensuring they don’t lose out on development opportunities for their economies. African Energy examines an A-to-Z of the leaders’ preoccupations

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Despite a five-fold increase in installed capacity over the past decade Guinea’s electricity supply industry will need huge investment to keep pace with growing demand, unlock stranded generation and increase low levels of access. The government is turning to mining companies to help finance this expansion, writes David Slater.

Guinea
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African delegations are meeting in a massive and not yet fully prepared conference venue several days before COP26 officially opens, writes John Hamilton in Glasgow. The pre-sessional meeting of the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) is attempting once again to get the continent’s priority issues onto the global agenda, a few days before G20 leaders gather in Rome for what, in part, will be a pre-COP 26 assembly of developed nations and leading emerging markets.

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Kenya has vowed not to abide by an International Court of Justice (ICJ) judgement issued on 12 October that found in favour of Somalia’s claim to a contested sea area covering more than 100,000km2 and which contains oil and gas reserves.

Kenya | Somalia
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Legal proceedings are due to be launched to challenge fundamental aspects of South Africa’s electricity policy, as the stakes in the battle between the government and environmentalists escalate, writes Dan Marks

South Africa
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President Uhuru Kenyatta has ordered that the recommendations made by the taskforce set up to review power purchase agreements (PPAs) be implemented by end-December. This includes the renegotiation of active PPAs and a raft of measures to tackle the performance of beleaguered utility Kenya Power, with the goal of reducing electricity costs by a third.

Kenya
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Tunisia’s political turmoil has stopped the development of renewable power projects – and much else – in their tracks and it may be impossible to resume work until the fundamental challenges posed by President Kaïs Saied’s suspension of the constitution and assumption of direct power have been resolved, in an unpromising situation that could get worse, writes John Hamilton

Tunisia
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The National Union of Petroleum and Gas Workers (Nupeng) suspended a planned nationwide strike by oil tanker drivers on 10 October to allow for discussions with the government. The drivers had been planning to start their industrial action the following day over poor road conditions and other issues.

Nigeria
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China under President Xi Jinping has shifted markedly from its position of not intervening in foreign conflicts – even in a multilateral context – and positioning its forces far from the People’s Republic. Beijing has stepped up its military presence in Africa over the last decade, in large part through its contributions to United Nations peace-keeping missions.

DR Congo | South Sudan | Djibouti | Mali
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The risk that almost 11GW of planned sub-Saharan power generation capacity will be shelved if Beijing carries through on one of its more public climate change pledges, to end state financing of overseas coal projects, underlines the extent Chinese policy impacts on African economies. In the run-up to a COP26 meeting, where superpower posturing may overwhelm efforts to achieve global consensus, Chinese policy on foreign projects, military expansion and huge debts are examined by Marc Howard, Ajay Ubhi and Jon Marks

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Much of the news flow ahead of the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow in November has been about which global leaders will turn up and what carbon reduction commitments they will make. Many in Africa are more concerned the least-developed continent will be forced to adopt ill-fitting policy straightjackets and forced to choose between rival superpower-led development models, most notably China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative (BRI) and the US-led Clean Green Initiative (CGI) and Build Back Better for the World (B3W) programmes.