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Mustafa Sanalla’s detractors lack the political force to eject him from Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) and the chairman still has the loyalty of most of the staff and senior management. Instead, they are chipping away at the foundations of his strategy, while simultaneously trying to strangle him with bureaucracy. African Energy analyses the legal arguments exchanged between NOC, the Ministry of Oil and Gas and the Libyan Audit Bureau as they fight for control

Libya
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The global hydrocarbons industry is entering a critical period, as oil majors press on with attempts to reinvent their businesses to meet ambitious emissions reduction targets and accommodate shifting investor expectations. That is likely to lead to further retrenchment from key African markets as the biggest international players reassess their priorities, which will favour gas over crude projects. But not everyone is heading for the exit, writes James Gavin.

Subscriber

Prime minister Abdalla Hamdok’s resignation on 2 January has left Sudan’s already faltering transition on life support, amid reports of renewed tensions between senior military commander General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia chief General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti).

Sudan
Issue 453 - 28 January 2022

No choice but a Dabaiba administration?

Free

In a polity with no choices, inertia rules. On 25 January, the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HOR) voted to give itself exclusive responsibility for choosing a new government to replace the one led by Abdel Hamid Al-Dabaiba. The decision opens the way to another lengthy constitutional impasse as it is unlikely the HOR has either the muscle or the credibility to eject the incumbent administration or to put its own appointees into the main ministerial portfolios in Tripoli.

Libya
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Everyone is playing their own game in the struggle for control over decision-making in Libya’s oil and gas sector. In the aftermath of the aborted 2021 general election, the Tobruk-based House of Representatives is attempting to end the mandate of Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Al-Dabaiba’s Tripoli-based Government of National Unity. So far National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla has retained his grip, but he faces multiple attempts to limit his authority and undo the deals he struck to keep oil flowing. African Energy pieces together the roles played by Sanalla and Dabaiba alongside minister of oil and gas Mohamed Aoun and two powerful state institutions, the Libyan Audit Bureau and the Administrative Control Authority

Libya
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The unrecognised Republic of Somaliland has slowly been gathering momentum behind its claim for independence from Somalia, while seeking to attract investors – as underlined by Genel Energy’s plans to drill an exploration well there in 2023. Most participants in a debate in the House of Commons on 18 January argued UK recognition of Somaliland would be appropriate given the autonomous territory’s stability and governance record and federal Somalia’s disarray.

Somalia
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Industry players continue to make bullish sounds about projects in Ethiopia, despite the murderous conflict pitting the Abiy Ahmed government against Tigrayan rebels that is putting some financing on hold and leading to geopolitical realignments in the region, writes Dan Marks

Ethiopia
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After reaching a preliminary agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over a $1.4bn bailout, President Hichilema’s government faces a stern test trying to convince the public that a hike in energy prices is needed to restore economic fitness, writes Chiwoyu Sinyangwe in Lusaka

Zambia
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Republic of Congo (RoC) and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have agreed to move ahead with an ambitious ‘energy friendship loop’, which aims to connect the Eni-operated Centrale Electrique du Congo (CEC) gas-fired power plant in Pointe-Noire with the Inga hydroelectric dam and the two capitals of Kinshasa and Brazzaville.

DR Congo | Congo Brazzaville
Free

Prizes and league tables should often be treated with great caution (as underlined by Nobel laureate Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s war in Tigray), but credit should be given when it is due and, in that context, Uganda’s fourth consecutive first place in the African Development Bank (AfDB)’s Electricity Regulatory Index should be acknowledged as a triumph for the rule of law and sound management.

Uganda
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Democratic Republic of Congo has aspirations to become the world leader in emerging battery technologies, but despite its mineral assets, clear political will and grandiose statements from potential donors, considerable challenges need to be addressed before the country can move beyond its traditional role as supplier of raw materials, writes François Misser with Jon Marks.

DR Congo
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Kenya has been a significant bellwether for international investors and an example of the increasing need to invest in community engagement and avoid short cuts in environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) procedures. As one Kenyan specialist told the October 2019 AIX: Nairobi conference, a power developer could be greeted initially with a welcome dance or by herders carrying Kalashnikovs – investors needed to be suitably prepared .

Kenya
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A huge rush is under way to tackle governance issues at Kenya Power and address the cost of energy from IPPs ahead of President Kenyatta’s Christmas Day deadline for implementing recommendations of the Presidential Taskforce’s PPA review, writes Dan Marks

Kenya
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The more optimistic mood emerging in the long under-performing electricity supply industry suggests Nigeria is on the right track in some areas of government-led reform. But persistent failures to develop hydrocarbons resources continue to depress output, raising the spectre of stranded assets despite the key role for gas in the domestic energy transition, while political tensions and conflict around the nation pose real doubts about the future, write African Energy staff and correspondents

Nigeria
Free

Nigeria’s pledge of achieving net-zero by 2060, driven by the increased use of its gas resource and the assent of a new climate bill, is likely to require huge amounts of financing. But as developed nations turn their back on fossil fuels the plan could face a funding impasse.

Nigeria