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Algiers will adhere to its contracts with existing clients regardless of other political or commercial pressures. Sonatrach’s relationship with Public Gas Corporation of Greece (Deoa) goes back to 1991. In February the two companies agreed additional LNG cargoes which will be delivered. Likewise, TotalEnergies, with a much longer history has worked hard to overcome the influence of the chequered history of Algero-French relations. As Spanish relations enter the deep freeze, Repsol’s interests and gas exports via the Medgaz pipeline will run according to the existing contracts.

Since the putsch that removed the now-exiled President Alpha Condé in September, ‘Interim President’ Colonel Mamady Doumbouya has been determined to stamp his mark on Guinea. His policies may be less confrontational than those of his friend Colonel Assimi Goïta in Mali, who replaced French forces with Russian Wagner Group paramilitaries, but Doumbouya has nevertheless asserted control over his country’s political and business life.

Algeria may be earning more money in the new high oil and gas price environment but with major calls on state revenues from every quarter, Sonatrach is not in line for significant new funds to help it address falls in output. Some politically favoured projects may go ahead regardless of commercial logic, but a lot of expectation rests on the 20 memoranda of understanding signed by PDG Toufik Hakkar during his tenure even though most have not yet led to new investment commitments. 

European powers are lobbying Algeria to provide far more gas and to shift its position in Opec to encourage higher oil output, but production shortfalls and political considerations mean a shift away from its historic alignment with Russia is unlikely. Relations with Europe are made more complex by tensions with regional rival Morocco, but years of underinvestment and poor governance in Algeria’s energy sector mean it is in any case not well placed to respond to calls for higher output, writes Jon Marks

There have been further developments in the government’s efforts to claw back advantageous conditions offered to Chinese investors under the $6bn infrastructure-for-minerals deal agreed with Beijing by ex-president Joseph Kabila Kabange.

Former Gabon Oil Company (GOC) director-general Christian Patrichi Tanasa Mbadinga, appeared before the Cour Criminelle Spéciale (CCS) in Libreville on 21 March, charged with misappropriating FCFA85bn ($143m) from the state oil company.

South Africa’s new National Infrastructure Plan raises many welcome issues around planning, accountability and regulatory capacity – and talks a big game on new nuclear and renewable power. Whether implementation will match ambition remains to be seen, writes Dan Marks.

Imminent commissioning of the Tobruk, Misratah and Tripoli West gas-fired power plants could put unprecedented strain on a Libyan gas supply network that is already struggling to supply enough feedstock to maintain output at operating stations in Tripolitania. Failing to end the decade-long electricity supply crisis will be politically costly for ‘outgoing’ prime minister Abdelhamid Dabaiba, and it may also be a while before Eni-National Oil Corporation joint venture Mellitah Oil and Gas can cash in on increased European demand by exporting more gas through the Greenstream pipeline 

Among Russia’s portfolio of interests in Africa – which include a large military sales business and nuclear development ambitions – state-owned entities such as Gazprom, Gazpromneft and Rosneft have built up hydrocarbons industry interests in markets around the continent, from Algeria in the north to Nigeria, and Angola and Mozambique south of the Sahara.  African Energy examines Russia's investments in Africa's upstream sector and its possible strategic objectives.

European leaders are confronting the urgent need to diversify energy supplies away from Russia, while also somehow keeping to their commitments to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, that they made – indeed pioneered – at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, just four months ago.  African Energy examines the options and projects under discussion including gas and electricity imports and hydrogen prospects.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has been followed by swingeing sanctions on the Russian economy and has led to European countries focusing hard on finding alternative sources of energy. African gas producers and a new generation of renewables exporters stand to benefit from this, but Russia still has friendships it can rely on around the continent, write James Gavin, John Hamilton and Jon Marks.

Ethiopia’s ‘unilateral action’ in starting limited power generation at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd) violates its diplomatic obligations, Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry told the Council of the League of Arab States on 9 March.

The energy-focused group belonging to Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch remains a major player in petroleum products trading and distribution and potentially upstream gas developments during a period when rising prices are adding to popular pressures on the Moroccan government to act and the PM has come under unexpectedly severe personal attack, writes a Special Correspondent, with Jon Marks.

The election of a new parliament and president for the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has already been delayed by one year and the government, led by incumbent president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (‘Farmaajo’) recently delayed the deadline once again.

Finance minister Enoch Godongwana’s first budget speech was welcomed as another safe budget in a long history of safe budgets in South Africa. But the challenges facing the government continue to mount: the National Treasury expects the economy to grow by 2.1% in 2022, dropping to 1.8% over the medium term.