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South Africa’s relations with the United Arab Emirates have soured after the Ministry of Justice and Correctional Services said it was only told in early April about a mid-February UAE court ruling that Atul and Rajesh Gupta would not be extradited to face charges of money laundering, fraud and corruption. It is another twist in the ‘state capture’ scandal that scarred Jacob Zuma’s presidency and whose ramifications continue to this day.

South Africa
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Competition among international powers over access to critical raw minerals was intense even before Russia’s President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But the conflict has focused minds even more sharply in the United States and European Union over the ground they have ceded to China in relation to rare earth minerals and other essential supplies.

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Zambia has “reset” its relationship with China, President Hakainde Hichilema said in late March. This followed resolution of a dispute over funding for the 750MW Kafue Gorge Lower hydroelectric power (HEP) project.

Zambia
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South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit’s choice of defence minister has underlined the persistent factional and communal conflicts that undermine the country’s efforts to improve its governance and focus on developmental issues.

South Sudan
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President Nana Akufo-Addo’s cash-strapped government is mired in disputes with power producers, oil companies and other big investors, amid creditors’ concerns over its refinancing plans and a build-up of payment arrears. This is complicating the finalisation of an expected $3bn IMF facility and efforts to relaunch Ghana’s investment drive, write Jon Marks and AE staff.

Ghana
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Savannah Energy has vowed to pursue all its legal options – including arbitration at the ICA in Paris – after Mahamat Idriss Déby’s ‘transitional’ government nationalised the upstream oil assets the UK independent had acquired from ExxonMobil in December.

Chad
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Legal protests are under way, but in all likelihood president-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu will take over the Aso Rock Presidential Villa following their inauguration, scheduled for 29 May.

Nigeria
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Rabat has pushed ahead with legal reforms that could open up the electricity supply industry and encourage more self-generation, but observers fear the entrenched interests of state utility Onee and regional utilities will continue to delay meaningful change, writes John Hamilton.

Morocco
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A new administration is coming to Abuja, with some familiar faces and the same old daunting problems to fix. An uncomfortably small proportion of Nigeria’s 220m-plus population voted in an election that could have a big impact, but only if Bola Tinubu surprises his detractors by driving forward with a diverse package of reforms and reconciliation measures that have defied previous governments, writes Jon Marks.

Nigeria
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Political, social and legal opposition to Eni’s multi-billion-dollar upstream gas development deal is driven by an alliance of fief holders who may not be able to stop the deal, but could make it harder and more expensive to complete. The opposition reflects continuing dysfunction, raising the prospect of more blockades and disruption, writes Mohamed Eljarh*, with John Hamilton.

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National Oil Corporation has relaunched its growth-oriented upstream strategy and is encouraging international companies to help Libya achieve the 2m b/d crude oil production target mooted for at least 15 years. Eni’s recent huge gas development agreement with NOC suggests the market’s need for Libyan hydrocarbons has trumped more pessimistic assessments of the government’s capabilities, but widespread political, social and legal opposition to the Italian deal is a reminder that, while huge growth in oil and gas production is technically feasible, developments remain prey to Libya’s volatile politics.

Libya
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The Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment’s rejection of all three of Karpowership South Africa’s environmental impact assessment applications has thrown the Turkish company’s – and other departments of government’s – emergency gas-to-power plans into disarray once more.

South Africa
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President Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa strengthened his grip on power by appointing political allies and retaining loyalists in a 6 March cabinet reshuffle. The changes included the appointment of 48-year-old Kgosientsho ‘Sputla’ Ramokgopa to take charge of a new Ministry of Electricity. Sputla has hit the ground running by launching the Resource Mobilisation Fund.

South Africa
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Algerian state giant Sonatrach has been courting international oil companies to capitalise on the potential to ramp up deliveries to Europe, but African Energy’s soundings suggest there are plenty of reasons for caution, despite the improved investment climate since hydrocarbons sector reforms were unveiled.

Algeria
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Tunisia’s economic decline and return to autocracy has been underlined by the World Bank suspending new projects in response to President Kaïs Saïed’s anti-immigrant stance. However, Qatar may soon start to provide much-needed funds and Tunisia is also earning revenue by acting as a re-export hub for embargoed Russian oil, writes Jon Marks.

Tunisia