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Issue 495 - 15 November 2023

Algeria: Another government reshuffle

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Aymen Benabderrahmane has been replaced as prime minister by President Abdelmajid Tebboune’s chief of staff (since March) Nadir Larbaoui.

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Following the recent dismissal of Sonatrach chief executive Toufik Hakkar, a further eight vice-presidents have now been dismissed from the national oil company, pointing to wider tensions within the Algiers establishment, writes Our Algiers Corresondent.

Algeria
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Security is swiftly deteriorating in Mali, with security forces and their allies from the Russian Wagner mercenary group struggling to contain the jihadist insurgency and renewed attacks from a coalition of Tuareg-dominated northern separatist groups. The rapid escalation is reflected in Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled) data, which shows 206 fatalities from armed conflict or political violence from 1-20 October alone.

Mali
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With oil field developments proceeding at pace, the Kampala government has signalled its intention to play a more robust role in economic management, with plans to renationalise the electricity distribution network and take an expensive majority stake in the Kabalega refinery development. Meanwhile financing for the Eacop pipeline is expected to close soon, with Chinese lenders stepping in where western financiers have refused to go, writes Marc Howard, recently in Kampala and Hoima.

Uganda
Issue 494 - 05 November 2023

Russia offers Mali nuclear pledge

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Russian state-owned nuclear power company Rosatom has signed an agreement with the Malian government to cooperate on “peaceful uses of atomic energy”. Following Colonel Assimi Goïta’s seizure of power in August 2020, Moscow has been a strong backer of the regime, as demonstrated by its scuppering of an United Nations Security Council resolution in August that would have renewed sanctions on Bamako.

Mali
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Even before the new Middle East war shattered comfortable assumptions about regional security, the global economic climate remained hostile to many heavily-indebted and financially stressed governments, and to populations who have struggled to live with fallout from the pandemic and Ukraine war, which has included painful levels of inflation and costly currency volatility. African Energy offers a few pointers towards another difficult year ahead, as the IMF issues its annual appraisals of the global outlook and regional economic performance, and the Israel-Palestine conflict returns to centre stage in an increasingly polarised world.

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Insurers focusing on energy sectors appear cautiously optimistic, despite many parts of Africa experiencing economic, political or security volatility. Some insurers are expanding into new sectors, such as transmission and C&I power plants, buoyed by high demand for what is often an unsung, but important element in project and financial structures, writes Marc Howard.

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For Interim President Mamady Doumbouya, progress on the Simandou iron ore megaproject may show his transitional regime is capable of effective governance in Guinea, as he courts a range of international leaders –  as the colonel underlined by his attendance in New York at the late September United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) – and tries to control the calendar for political transition.

Guinea
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Few countries generate such strong opinions, for and against, as Rwanda, which is ruled with an iron fist by an apparently ageless President Paul Kagame. All but set for re-election again in August 2024, Kagame continues to make himself very useful to allies, acting as a regional policeman while also a player in his neighbours’ conflicts, while drawing in finance despite criticism of governance abuses, write Tonderayi Mukeredzi and African Energy staff .

Rwanda | Burundi
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Guinea’s military government has received a significant fillip as mining giant Rio Tinto and Chinese steelmaker Baowu made further commitments to the Simandou megaproject – in the process offering hope to Interim President Mamady Doumbouya that exports could eventually start from the long-stalled scheme, as his regime moves slowly on the promised transition back to democracy, write Marc Howard and Our Conakry Correspondent.

Guinea
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Macky Sall has installed trusted ally Antoine Félix Abdoulaye Diome as oil and energy minister in a move said to be designed to extend outgoing president’s influence over the sector even after he leaves office, writes Waly Dione Faye.

Senegal
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Sudan and Iran have resumed diplomatic relations after a seven-year break, with their embassies to be reopened in the near future. The development followed talks between Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Sudan’s acting foreign affairs minister Ali Al-Sadiq Ali on the sidelines of a Non-Aligned Movement summit in Baku, Azerbaijan earlier this year

Sudan
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Seven plaintiffs have filed a criminal complaint with Paris prosecutors against TotalEnergies, accusing the French major of negligence and indirect manslaughter during the March 2021 attack on Palma by Islamist insurgents.

Mozambique
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Mpho Makwana will leave Eskom at the end of October, having served for only slightly over a year as chair of the state utility’s board of directors, with further divisions among decision-makers apparent in the protracted search for a new group chief executive officer (GCEO).

South Africa
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As President William Samoei Ruto celebrated his first year in State House on 13 September, he has been able to bask in the global leadership opportunity offered by Kenya’s role in crafting an unprecedented African policy approach to the climate crisis ahead of COP28 in Dubai.

Kenya