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New Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is a Swapo veteran who is favourite to become Namibia’s first female president after elections are held in November, but who faces challenges, not least from within the ruling party. African Energy also gives an assessment of the man she hopes to ultimately to succeed, Namibia’s President Hage Geingob, who died on 4 February after a battle with cancer.

As Namibia enters a new period of hydrocarbons and minerals-driven development, the death of President Hague Geingob has set up a political transition in which vice president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is favourite to become the country’s first female leader at elections in November, but nothing is certain as Swapo factions manoeuvre for position.

President Macky Sall’s decision to postpone the 25 February presidential election until 15 December exacerbated an already poisonous atmosphere in Senegal. His 19 February decision to reverse that decision should lead to an election being held very soon, but political tensions will persist. African Energy’s Risk Management Report focuses on political risk indicators in a country that has long been favoured by donors and investors, and whose natural resources industries are booming as offshore oil and natural gas exports beckon. With attention firmly directed towards gas-to-power development, most other aspects of electricity industry reform, such as the unbundling of utility Senelec and introduction of wheeling have been left on hold – and further delays are likely.

President Kaïs Saïed’s appointment of former EBRD executive Ouael Chouchane as secretary of state for energy transition is a rare optimistic sign for the Tunisian renewable power sector, following years of drift.

The wave of coups across the Sahel region over the past three years appears to have prompted a surge in defence spending across Africa – as newly-installed military regimes pour money into their own fiefdoms and other governments seek to bolster their security. International Institute for Strategic Studies data show total spending rose by more than one-fifth in 2023, but more money for soldiers and armaments means there is less to spend on social and infrastructure improvements.

With elections looming later this year, under-pressure President Cyril Ramaphosa used his 8 February State of the Nation Address to extol the ruling African National Congress party’s successes since the end of apartheid. However, his administration’s failure to deal with key election concerns – the electricity crisis, high unemployment, poverty and crime – could lead the ANC into uncharted territory come polling day, writes Tonderayi Mukeredzi.

Construction is expected to restart in mid-2024 at Mozambique LNG, with a revived financing package expected to be put in place after nearly three years of force majeure, and as the adjacent Rovuma LNG project is also resuming work.

Nigerien oil production could increase fivefold as a result of the Niger-Benin Export Pipeline, which is expected soon to ship its first cargo from the Sèmè-Kraké terminal. With traders competing to land marketing rights for Niamey’s share of up to 90,000 b/d of crude supply, the revenues will significantly aid the military regime, whose hold on the government has consolidated as General Abdourahamane Tiani’s junta has sought to cement ties with China and others.

The strongmen in charge of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger plan to quit the regional Ecowas bloc, as Russia further enhances its military/business relationship with the Sahel troika and Central African Republic. While Niger believes its oil production could increase fivefold as its export pipeline to Benin starts up, and the Sahel states made significant progress in developing solar generation capacity in 2023, shifting political sands mean the largely western-funded PV boom is unlikely to be repeated, and the focus of China and others on resources plays leaves a big gap in international support for other sectors, writes Marc Howard.

An oversubscribed Eurobond issue in January indicated that Côte d’Ivoire’s strong economic performance – including 6.5% GDP growth, big infrastructure investments and Eni’s major Baleine oil and gas field – has been enough to allay investors’ concerns over the presidential succession and wider regional instability. These issues feature in the first of African Energy’s new series of Risk Management Reports (RMRs), which will provide updates, analysis and context on key political, social, economic and energy trends in countries across the continent. In line with the model established by African Energy’s sister publication Gulf States Newsletter (GSN), a ‘risk grade’ (explained below) is assigned to each country. A full list of African risk grades will follow soon.

Côte d’Ivoire’s three times oversubscribed $2.6bn dollar Eurobond issue underlines President Alassane Dramane Ouattara’s reputation for prudent economic management – a status that will add to pressures from supporters for ‘ADO’ to stand for a controversial fourth term – and offers some hope for under-pressure African borrowers who could benefit from renewed access to international capital markets and the relatively attractive interest rates CdI has secured.

The United Arab Emirates has stepped in to finance Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s long-desired oil refinery, as the UAE ramps up its sub-Saharan business activity. Junior foreign minister Sheikh Shakhbut Bin Nahyan Al-Nahyan has been making yet more visits around the continent, also taking in Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola’s Cabinda enclave in January.

Comoros President Azali Assoumani has secured yet another term in office through a disputed election, undermining prospects for progress and stability in the small island state where nearly half the population live in poverty and where a shortage of electricity is holding back development, writes Tonderayi Mukeredzi.

The Armed Forces of Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) co-ordinator of military operations in North Kivu, Lieutenant General Fall Sikabwe on 16 January announced the launch of joint operations with Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces in eastern DRC, mainly drawn from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi. They will be targeting 23 March Movement (M23) rebels, who are widely believed to be backed by Rwanda.

Félix Tshisekedi has won a second presidential term and his coalition a big parliamentary majority in Democratic Republic of Congo. But victory comes in the face of complaints from his opponents, unease among allies and a toxic blend of rebellions, insolvency and social discontent.