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With first oil expected from Lake Albert by early 2026, an array of associated infrastructure is under development, including the controversial Eacop pipeline. Shunned by western financiers, Chinese debt is expected to rescue Eacop, with a financing package due to be finalised in the coming weeks. Kampala has also signalled its appetite to intervene in energy markets by taking a majority stake in the Kabalega refinery, writes Marc Howard in Hoima.

Uganda | Tanzania
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Security is swiftly deteriorating in Mali, with security forces and their allies from the Russian Wagner mercenary group struggling to contain the jihadist insurgency and renewed attacks from a coalition of Tuareg-dominated northern separatist groups. The rapid escalation is reflected in Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled) data, which shows 206 fatalities from armed conflict or political violence from 1-20 October alone.

Mali
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Were projects assessed solely on their economic and social impact, the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (Eacop) and Lake Albert would probably be widely praised. Uganda needs both the energy and investment the projects bring. But the projects have drawn fierce criticism from environmental campaigners and NGOs, in Uganda and beyond in a concerted, high-profile campaign that has registered successes.

Uganda
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With oil field developments proceeding at pace, the Kampala government has signalled its intention to play a more robust role in economic management, with plans to renationalise the electricity distribution network and take an expensive majority stake in the Kabalega refinery development. Meanwhile financing for the Eacop pipeline is expected to close soon, with Chinese lenders stepping in where western financiers have refused to go, writes Marc Howard, recently in Kampala and Hoima.

Uganda
Issue 494 - 05 November 2023

Russia offers Mali nuclear pledge

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Russian state-owned nuclear power company Rosatom has signed an agreement with the Malian government to cooperate on “peaceful uses of atomic energy”. Following Colonel Assimi Goïta’s seizure of power in August 2020, Moscow has been a strong backer of the regime, as demonstrated by its scuppering of an United Nations Security Council resolution in August that would have renewed sanctions on Bamako.

Mali
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Nigeria has succeeded in overturning a $6.6bn arbitral award made against it in 2017, with the High Court in London ruling the award had been obtained by fraud. The High Court ruled that British Virgin Islands-registered Process and Industrial Development (P&ID) had engaged in “the most severe abuses of the arbitral process” in winning its 2017 case against the Nigerian government over a failed gas supply and processing deal.

Nigeria
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The World Bank has agreed to extend $1bn to South Africa to help the government’s energy security goals and the transition to a low carbon economy. The development policy loan is expected to help with restructuring of the power sector through the unbundling of state-owned power utility Eskom, as well as encouraging private investment in renewable energy.

South Africa
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Karadeniz’s subsidiary Karpowership South Africa has secured environmental approval to proceed with the 450MW Richards Bay gas-to power plant.

South Africa
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Dubai-based port operator DP World has signed a 30-year concession with Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) to operate and modernise Dar es Salaam Port.

Tanzania
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The International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund (EAIF) are anchor investors in a bond issue intended to support a government-led programme to connect more low-income households to the national grid.

Côte d'Ivoire
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The International Monetary Fund has agreed a new $253m programme to help Nouakchott strengthen its resilience to climate shocks and accelerate its transition to clean energy.

Mauritania
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US-based developer Husk Power Systems has secured funds from investors, which it will use to scale up its solar mini-grid developments in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Husk – which was established in 2008 – claimed its new Series D funding was “the largest-ever equity raise in the mini-grid industry”.

DR Congo | Nigeria
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Insurers focusing on energy sectors appear cautiously optimistic, despite many parts of Africa experiencing economic, political or security volatility. Some insurers are expanding into new sectors, such as transmission and C&I power plants, buoyed by high demand for what is often an unsung, but important element in project and financial structures, writes Marc Howard.

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Amid fresh speculation that it is eyeing up an entry into Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG project, Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation (Adnoc) looks set to become a more active participant in upstream projects in Africa, so long as natural gas is on the agenda.

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Even before the new Middle East war shattered comfortable assumptions about regional security, the global economic climate remained hostile to many heavily-indebted and financially stressed governments, and to populations who have struggled to live with fallout from the pandemic and Ukraine war, which has included painful levels of inflation and costly currency volatility. African Energy offers a few pointers towards another difficult year ahead, as the IMF issues its annual appraisals of the global outlook and regional economic performance, and the Israel-Palestine conflict returns to centre stage in an increasingly polarised world.