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Some pessimistic observers are heralding the end of the independent power producer (IPP) era, with the potential demise of actors and project models that have dominated private sector investment in electricity generation since the 1990s. With criticism of IPP costs providing grist to populist mills across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) – feeding into narratives of western ‘exploitation’ and anger over rising living costs – politicians have been calling for change, while developers are finding market conditions ever more challenging.

With its redomiciling from Australia to Norway completed at end-February, PetroNor is now looking to increase production from its African assets. However, the investigation into former chief executive Knut Søvold continues, following his arrest in December over projects in Africa.

A plan by Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to auction 16 oil and gas blocks has attracted opposition from environmental groups, who accuse President Félix Tshisekedi’s government of threatening a sensitive ecosystem.

It is going to be a challenging and busy COP for summit president Sultan Al-Jaber, but with an inaugural $420m capitalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund announced on the first day, the multi-tasking Emirati came out swinging against his critics. Al-Jaber’s role as chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has prompted allegations of a conflict of interest and abuse of COP for commercial, fossil fuel-related ends. But other agendas are afoot, and as COP has morphed into one of the world’s largest business conferences, the geopolitical horse-trading has further intensified.

The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has unconditionally withdrawn civil claims totalling $1.1bn against Italian major Eni that had been lodged in Italian courts, ending a long-running legal dispute centred on corruption allegations. In a statement to African Energy, Eni said it had received a letter confirming the withdrawal and said it was “the final step towards the truth”.

UAE-based players have used COP28 to commit – and recommit – to projects that could supply over 12GW of renewables capacity across Africa. Emiratis argue this displays a willingness to push projects forward and shoulder risk, while others have failed to deliver – and if critics complain they are also prominent in the oil lobby, Abu Dhabi can counter that the UAE has assumed a leading role in enabling Africa’s energy transition.

The COP28 climate talks in Dubai ended on a more positive note than many had thought possible, but for all the talk of eventually phasing out fossil fuels, multi-billions of dollars-worth of climate finance and operationalising the long-awaited Loss and Damage Fund, the crowds who descended on Dubai left with much to do and huge financial shortfalls to make up.

Félix Tshisekedi has won a second presidential term in Democratic Republic of Congo. The result has been contested by his opponents, who were crying foul long before most of the country went to the polls on 20 December and have continued to point to major irregularities thereafter.

Shell is selling Nigerian subsidiary SPDC, with the onshore and shallow-water operator going to a consortium of local companies allied to industry veteran Samuel Dossou-Aworet for a sum of up to $2.4bn the supermajor is helping to fund. While Shell is retaining some other valuable Nigerian assets, it adds to a trend of international majors exiting all but their big deep-water oil and gas plays, following recent deals by ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies and Eni. African Energy analyses several aspects of a complex deal.

The Copperbelt Energy Corporation (CEC) raised $145m in an investment round led by private equity investor Affirma Capital in early January, quickly followed by the listing of a debut $54m ‘green bond’ on the Lusaka Securities Exchange. The bond is the first part of a planned $200m issuance programme, which was launched in December to fund an expansion of the company’s solar PV generation capacity. Managing director Owen Silavwe, gave African Energy an update on the progress of the 60MW solar PV project at Itimpi, which will take CEC’s solar capacity to 96MW.

Karadeniz’s subsidiary Karpowership South Africa has secured environmental approval to proceed with the 450MW Richards Bay gas-to power plant.

Interim President Colonel Mamady Doumbouya used a television broadcast to sack Prime Minister Bernard Gomou, accusing his government of corruption, and has since sought to court some opposition factions – in a process confirmed with Mamadou Oury Bah’s appointment as PM – but pressures are mounting from opposition politicians, trade unions and other angry stakeholders.

For Egypt, the development of green hydrogen production capacity is not just an interesting economic sideline that has emerged out of the global push to achieve net-zero, but a potential lifeline for the economy. Officials have put in place a governance infrastructure and fiscal incentives in the hope of making the most of the GH2 opening.

A degree of pressure has been lifted from President William Ruto, as his government secured $1.65bn from a dollar eurobond, as well as over $1bn from multilaterals, allowing Nairobi to avert the threat of default on its big repayment due in June. The shilling has emerged stronger, but the economy remains fragile, while the electricity supply industry is in need of a significantly improved performance. President Ruto is focused on reducing the cost of electricity and has devised a three-point plan to invest in transmission and distribution, develop LNG import facilities and accelerate geothermal power. His government may also try to lower end-user tariffs by slowing down the granting of PPAs or putting pressure on the regulator.  

Shortfalls in financial flows, failures to deal with debt and a lack of voice in global decision-making arenas are longstanding issues that African leaders are now seeking to address, with leaders from Ghana, Kenya and Zambia setting out a blueprint for reform covering everything from UN Security Council seats to the reallocation of $100bn-worth of assets held by the IMF. The extent to which these ambitious goals can be achieved could prove critical to Africa’s ability to finance and structure the energy transition on its terms – but the continent’s governments also need to accelerate their own reforms.