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Sudan may be on the verge of a de facto split, its infrastructure is in ruins and populations are struggling to survive a global-scale humanitarian crisis, but there is little incentive for either side to back down one year after militia leader Hemedti launched his RSF’s campaign against erstwhile ally the Sudan Armed Forces regime. While attention is focused on conflicts elsewhere, a major African country is being destroyed for personal advantage in a conflict marked by significant intervention from the wider region.

The final COP28 communiqué included – for the first time – a commitment to eventually phase out fossil fuels, going beyond previous declarations that focused on coal. However, there are few signs that Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) members and their Opec+ allies, led by Russia, have any intention of allowing their core source of revenues to disappear anytime soon. So what can we learn from recent statements by oil producers – including Opec+’s quota commitments at a meeting on 30 November – and from leaks and comments made during COP28?

Publication of the 500th issue provides an opportunity to look back at a few triumphs and many missed opportunities in the industries African Energy has covered since it was launched in 1998. Industry and financial trends have evolved, and sometimes returned to haunt stakeholders years after they were thought to be history. One constant has been the huge increase in the continent’s population, which means the UN target of universal clean energy access is constantly pushed into the distance.

Political uncertainty grips South Africa ahead of national and provincial elections on 29 May, with opinion polls suggesting the ruling African National Congress could lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years, raising the possibility of a coalition government and the prospect of a surge in ‘pork barrel’ politics.

On a wave of optimism about its offshore Rovuma Basin reserves, Mozambique has emerged as a poster boy for the ‘Africa rising’ agenda. With at least 100tcf of conventional gas reserves – and potentially more than double that amount, according to a range of project sources – this global-scale resource should drive the emergence of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export industry and substantial domestic and regional electricity supply in the next decade. Mozambique enthusiasts add that the country enjoys several other advantages, including proximity to markets and relatively streamlined decision-making (especially when compared to its potential rival for LNG export markets, neighbouring Tanzania).

Amid the feelgood talk about cleaner, more efficient fuels during the mid-January Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, the presence of criminality and dirty money in energy industries worldwide was highlighted by the launch of a report from US think tank the Atlantic Council. In Downstream Oil Theft: Global Modalities, Trends, and Remedies, consultant Ian Ralby argues that, despite its undoubted impact, “the global scourge of illicit downstream hydrocarbons activity remains relatively invisible” – and much more is needed to tackle this particular oil curse.

The suspension by President Goodluck Jonathan of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi led the naira to fall sharply and investors to rue the volatility of Nigerian politics. But it was hardly a surprise, following years of controversy surrounding the highly talented and combative governor, and months of Sanusi’s increasingly public criticism of the management of the oil sector and government finances by Jonathan and his close ally petroleum minister Diezani Allison-Madueke. By naming names in the Senate, Sanusi was more or less directly implicating the ruling clique on Aso Rock in gross malfeasance.

President Idriss Déby Itno has attempted to get tough with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) over environmental violations at the Ronier field. This minor development is significant because of increased international interest in the Chadian upstream, with new companies taking acreage in the hope of finding successful rift basin plays, and for what it says about N’Djaména’s relationship with its biggest investor. The government halted CNPC’s operations in August after finding waste crude stored in open pits. However, it lifted the suspension in October after CNPC promised to literally clean up its act.

President José Eduardo dos Santos and his Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA) party mobilised the apparel of state (along with Brazilian election experts and a massive birthday bash for the 70-year-old leader) to secure a landslide in the 31 August general election. The MPLA may not win as much as the 82% it won in 2008, but it will have gained enough votes to legitimise dos Santos’ 33-year rule – at least in the eyes of Angolan power-brokers – and open the way for peaceful political transition.

Project developers and financiers spend inordinate amounts of time and money assessing risks and their mitigation. But when traditional credit and political risk calculations are being made, they still too often overlook the populations whose land they are building on, even if they think they have community engagement in hand. Disgruntled populations may express their frustration and even violently turn on developments that seem beyond their control, and that threaten their (sometimes literally) sacred home turf.

Climate change denier Donald Trump’s 8 November election victory stunned the COP22 meeting in Marrakech, before the other 196 governments responded with defiant statements supporting the Paris Agreement. Tackling climate change and energy poverty has been central to Barack Obama’s presidency; his championing of COP was underlined by secretary of state John Kerry’s robust appearance in Marrakech; the Power Africa initiative is supported by the Electrify Africa Act, which puts sub-Saharan economies’ lack of energy access onto the US statute book.

As usual, there was no explanation from Luanda of President José Eduardo dos Santos’ partial government reshuffle on 5 October, which reorganised key economic departments and the senior ranks of the military.

Investor interest in Madagascar picked up when companies were attracted by the island state’s potential for power sector developments, as former president Hery Rajaonarimampianina hosted an influential donor and investor conference in 2016.The going has since proven tough for many investors, as early movers have run into payment issues with malfunctioning state utility Jiro sy Rany Malagasy (Jirama) and the administration has proved unpredictable in renegotiating power purchase agreements (PPAs).

Any administration would be hard-pressed to cope with Cyclone Idai. For central Mozambique, southern Malawi and eastern Zimbabwe, the catastrophe is piled onto already often poorly served communities and underperforming governments. Even after the most severe storm hit on 14-15 March, news outlets and the donor community took time to appreciate the scale of the disaster – as mosque killings, Brexit and Donald Trump jostled for airtime that might have helped generate more immediate support.

Democratic Republic of Congo catches the imagination of those who see its potential to drive Africa’s future through its mineral wealth, resourceful population and the Inga Falls hydroelectric resource. But grandiose visions tend to founder on rocky realities in this vast, extravagantly diverse country, where power politics and the global commodities price crash – which in early May forced the government to cut 2016 spending by some 22% – have deeply unsettled much of what remains of international business. In May, major investor Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Cobalt announced it was selling up.