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Projections and commitments from Ghana’s eloquent political class and the human resources offered by its vibrant young population – forecast to reach 29m in 2018 – drive optimism that a sub-Saharan success story can generate sustainable growth to move its economy beyond lower middle-income status. Following their December 2016 election victory, President Nana Akufo-Addo and his New Patriotic Party (NPP) government have struggled to turn around a legacy of debt and alleged malfeasance by their National Democratic Congress (NDC) predecessors.

Elections on 23 December are unlikely to deliver the change Democratic Republic of Congo so badly needs. The outlook is deteriorating as polling day approaches, following deaths at rallies in support of opposition candidate Martin Fayulu, and an apparently deliberate fire in Kinshasa that destroyed controversial voting machines. Fears have been expressed that the elections will be far from free and fair, potentially stoking further conflict as President Joseph Kabila Kabange – who has been in power since 2001 – seeks to hold on to state institutions via his hand-picked successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary.

The growing number of energy sector professionals working in West Africa’s Sahel region can point to positive signs emerging from markets that must develop as quickly as possible to serve fast-growing and youthful populations seeking opportunities for a better future. The year ends with the first turbines being connected to Senegal’s national grid from the 158.7MW Taiba N’Diaye wind farm, developed by Lekela Power. Wind and solar developers are evolving projects across West Africa that are drawing in multilateral, bilateral and even commercial finance.

Its wealth of renewable energy resources, availability of land and proximity to markets mean Africa holds the key to Europe’s vision of a net zero future based on green hydrogen (GH2) use. The manufacture of carbon-free liquid fuels could also transform the continent, but project sponsors, financers and offtakers need to ensure this is done fairly, while contributing to economic and social development. The establishment of the European Hydrogen Bank can be a crucial step in that direction.

A novel debt restructuring deal between Zambia and its bilateral creditors should pave the way for Lusaka to finally receive new assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and, in time, move beyond its debt defaulting status with credit ratings agencies. The deal could help to relieve pressure on debt-stressed state utility Zesco but, as so often, the devil resides in the detail and some significant elements have yet to be put in place, including a critical agreement with private creditors that could involve further tough negotiations with Beijing.

Much of the news flow ahead of the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow in November has been about which global leaders will turn up and what carbon reduction commitments they will make. Many in Africa are more concerned the least-developed continent will be forced to adopt ill-fitting policy straightjackets and forced to choose between rival superpower-led development models, most notably China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative (BRI) and the US-led Clean Green Initiative (CGI) and Build Back Better for the World (B3W) programmes.

Uncomfortable financial disputes are expected to dominate the 27th United Nations Climate Change (COP27) conference, to be held in the Egyptian Red Sea resort city of Sharm El Sheikh on 6-18 November. African nations may achieve progress in some areas – perhaps by forcing the vexed question of compensation for loss and damage onto the agenda – but the meeting will likely once again fail to identify a way forward for electricity supply industries (ESIs) across the continent.

Lenders have appetite for Africa’s more attractive sovereign credits, including fashionable francophone markets Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal. When in March Senegal raised $2.2bn in a eurobond issue, its Ministry of Finance received $10.3bn-worth of orders for the euro/dollar-denominated facility. It brought African eurobond issues to a total $10.7bn in Q1 2018, following borrowing by Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya. This was more than the 2016 total, and more than half of the $18bn 2017 record, Bloomberg reported.

The Abidjan-based Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM) stock exchange is ambitious but lacks liquidity. Questions persist about the CFA franc peg, underwritten by the French treasury since the West African currency was created in 1945. Destructive trends from climate change to jihadist insurgency can be acutely destabilising to under-resourced governments, while commodity shocks are a perennial headache in economies dependent on agri-business and oil imports.

Few countries in sub-Saharan Africa have impressed investors, donors and governments as much as President Paul Kagame’s Rwanda. With a development strategy crafted in co-ordination with advisers such as former UK prime minister Tony Blair’s Africa Governance Initiative, Kagame has rebuilt Rwanda, making Kigali one of Africa’s best-functioning capitals and attracting infrastructure and other commercial investments. As one long-time Central Africa-watcher expresses it: “Rwanda has taken the uniquely organised structures of the pre-colonial Tutsi kingdoms and transposed that to a modern state.”

A significant market is emerging across the continent for renewables-based commercial and industrial (C&I) energy projects. In all but a handful of markets, the talk is of a potential that will soon be measured in gigawatts, rather than the usual dozens (at most) of megawatts of an established business. As Kenya-based Astonfield Solar’s chairman Ameet Shah puts it, the technology is still in its early days – as in some cases is the quality of its delivery to clients – but the C&I industry will reach lift-off even before the ‘transformational’ 24-hour storage becomes the norm.

Twenty years ago, a new publication was launched to fill a gap in FT Energy’s global map: African Energy created in April 1998 as a monthly report, meant the Financial Times subsidiary could claim to cover the world; previously, its stable of newsletters and online products had largely ignored Africa. African Energy opened its account with news that financing for the planned $3.5bn Chad-Cameroon pipeline was falling into place. That controversial project was eventually built, while others have taken longer to leave the drawing board.

The suspension by President Goodluck Jonathan of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi led the naira to fall sharply and investors to rue the volatility of Nigerian politics. But it was hardly a surprise, following years of controversy surrounding the highly talented and combative governor, and months of Sanusi’s increasingly public criticism of the management of the oil sector and government finances by Jonathan and his close ally petroleum minister Diezani Allison-Madueke. By naming names in the Senate, Sanusi was more or less directly implicating the ruling clique on Aso Rock in gross malfeasance.

Project developers and financiers spend inordinate amounts of time and money assessing risks and their mitigation. But when traditional credit and political risk calculations are being made, they still too often overlook the populations whose land they are building on, even if they think they have community engagement in hand. Disgruntled populations may express their frustration and even violently turn on developments that seem beyond their control, and that threaten their (sometimes literally) sacred home turf.

Investor interest in Madagascar picked up when companies were attracted by the island state’s potential for power sector developments, as former president Hery Rajaonarimampianina hosted an influential donor and investor conference in 2016.The going has since proven tough for many investors, as early movers have run into payment issues with malfunctioning state utility Jiro sy Rany Malagasy (Jirama) and the administration has proved unpredictable in renegotiating power purchase agreements (PPAs).