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A shift is under way in the global economy that will test claims that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has emerged from years of structural adjustment with more robust domestic markets and greater resilience to commodity price volatility and capital outflows. The World Bank has suggested the region could be approaching the conditions for economic lift-off comparable to China three decades ago. In many countries, the bank argues, sound fundamentals mean growth is more sustainable than in previous periods, when ‘hot money’ came into frontier economies only to leave again with damaging consequences.

It is a measure of its rise to prominence that China is the prism through which other nations now define their relations with Africa. This is the product of decades of energetic diplomacy and China’s willingness to provide unprecedented levels of finance, infrastructure development, contracting and small business engagement. This dominant position was richly underlined by the 3-4 September Forum on China-Africa Co-operation, which drew African leaders to Beijing in numbers the continent’s other commercial partners can only dream of.

The AAA-rated African Development Bank (AfDB) is the continent’s biggest financial institution, with a well-defined role that is growing as it leverages its capital and know-how to support essential public and private sector projects and support economies mired in the coronavirus pandemic. The re-election of AfDB president Akinwumi Adesina is an important development that should end a period of corrosive doubt about the bank’s governance, while promoting the bank’s multiple positive roles.

Efforts to mitigate climate change, while electricity supply industries, transport networks and other big consumers of energy are put on a more sustainable, less carbon-intense footing, will rise sharply up the global agenda in 2021, ahead of the next big round of climate talks to be held on 1-12 November in Glasgow. This is likely to involve a rush into green bonds, new project financing and other instruments that could significantly increase the pace of Africa’s shift into a more sustainable energy future.

Politics runs through even the most technical questions in a Republic of South Africa (RSA) ruled for nearly three decades by the African National Congress (ANC). Power struggles and influence-broking within the party have a direct impact on the implementation of policy. Along with data and project updates, African Energy’s new 160-page South Africa Power Report 2021/22 highlights the need for President Cyril Ramaphosa to implement reforms to the electricity supply industry (ESI) and other key sectors, in the face of opposition from deeply-rooted ideological and factional rivals.

There has been progress in the campaign against Boko Haram and President Muhammadu Buhari’s flagship fight against corruption. Higher oil prices will pump more cash into the economy, helping to ease extreme foreign exchange shortages that have hurt business. A $1bn Eurobond was nearly eight times oversubscribed, the Ministry of Finance said on 9 February. But pending a major fillip for the economy (including an eventual official devaluation of the naira), the outlook for Nigeria remains patchy, with investors holding back until they see clearer signs of the direction of business and politics.

Modelling and number-crunching may not have the popular appeal of big new power stations or trans-continental interconnections, but they can be crucial to making markets work – and in Africa could open up new vistas for more efficient, more responsive and much larger electricity supply industries (ESIs).

Egypt has a good claim to have been the most dynamic of all African countries in 2022, but 2023 may be its year of reckoning. The currency crisis now ravaging the economy could bring President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s futuristic edifice of renewables, green hydrogen (GH2), new cities, real estate, electric trains, sea water desalination and social infrastructure crashing down unless he can keep on side a wide coalition. This includes the IMF and Gulf monarchies which are Egypt’s largest creditors, the military, whose economic prerogatives must now be curtailed, a hard-pressed population, and international business partners.

Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dabaiba may just have won another round in the unedifying slugfest for control over Libya’s government and resources. It seemed like a mistake when Dabaiba replaced National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla with former Qadhafi-era Central Bank of Libya governor Farhat Ben Gdara in late July, but the move seems to have bought the PM more time.

Climate change – closely linked to the intractable issues of poverty and inequality – is an issue preoccupying policy-makers around the world, but its impacts are particularly acute across swathes of Africa. But while calls for swifter action to unlock larger amounts of financing were paramount at the inaugural Africa Climate Summit (ACS), held in Nairobi on 4-6 September, it was also apparent that views differ widely on how to address the challenge.

As President William Samoei Ruto celebrated his first year in State House on 13 September, he has been able to bask in the global leadership opportunity offered by Kenya’s role in crafting an unprecedented African policy approach to the climate crisis ahead of COP28 in Dubai.

Some pessimistic observers are heralding the end of the independent power producer (IPP) era, with the potential demise of actors and project models that have dominated private sector investment in electricity generation since the 1990s. With criticism of IPP costs providing grist to populist mills across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) – feeding into narratives of western ‘exploitation’ and anger over rising living costs – politicians have been calling for change, while developers are finding market conditions ever more challenging.

Shortfalls in financial flows, failures to deal with debt and a lack of voice in global decision-making arenas are longstanding issues that African leaders are now seeking to address, with leaders from Ghana, Kenya and Zambia setting out a blueprint for reform covering everything from UN Security Council seats to the reallocation of $100bn-worth of assets held by the IMF. The extent to which these ambitious goals can be achieved could prove critical to Africa’s ability to finance and structure the energy transition on its terms – but the continent’s governments also need to accelerate their own reforms.

The purchase of BG Group by Royal Dutch Shell confirmed predictionsthat the falling oil price would trigger a spate of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the upstream industry. It points to a need for even the biggest players to build scale in developing their natural gas trade; for Shell, BG’s assets in Australia and the Atlantic Basin (Brazil) will help to secure a dominant position in Asian and other key markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

There was little surprise when SunEdison filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on 21 April, given the scale of its fall from grace – from nearly $10bn market capitalisation in mid-2015 to a 99% share price collapse and emergency asset sales less than one year later. The US developer’s crisis poses questions about the future of its substantial portfolio – which includes five projects with combined 371MW capacity in South Africa, awarded in the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement (REIPPP) programme’s expanded fourth round – and the health of the wider solar industry.