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The suicide bombing of a gendarmerie barracks in Ouargla and shock jihadist victories in Mali are fuelling unease about the future of the vast Sahara-Sahel region, adding to the uncertain political mood in Algiers, write Oualid Khelifi and Jon Marks

With elections looming in February, President Muhammadu Buhari will be seeking to avoid a repeat of the chaos when petrol filling stations across Africa’s leading oil and gas exporter almost ran dry last December and January. Buhari’s main challenger, veteran politician and businessman Atiku Abubakar, will be quick to highlight economic mismanagement and stress his preference for wholesale reform of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources as well as the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and its malfunctioning oil refineries.

Nigerian politicians’ focus in the year ahead will be on the 2019 elections and the chances of President Muhammadu Buhari serving a second term. Buhari seems to have returned home from medical treatment in London last August reinvigorated to an extent many doubters thought impossible, but if politics is a results business – rather than merely a question of the volume of resources at power-brokers’ disposal – the president and his All Progressives Congress (APC) have much to do.

Barring unwelcome twists in Nigeria’s volatile elite politics, Goodluck Jonathan’s peaceful departure from Aso Rock will be judged an unexpected success at the end of a largely failed presidency. The economy has grown over the past five years, but the president’s role in this was limited at best, while mismanagement of issues such as the jihadist insurgency in the north-east has added to Nigerians’ insecurity. Jonathan’s defeat means that no future president can rest comfortable in the assumption that his ultimate control of the levers of patronage will translate into electoral success; this is a major step forward for Nigeria and, arguably, the continent.

Electricity generation and transmission infrastructure is increasingly being targeted by groups including Boko Haram in the north-east. According to Transmission Company of Nigeria, pylons on the 330kV Damaturu-Maidugiri line were destroyed by insurgents in January and March. As a result, grid power to Borno state capital Maiduguri was cut off for three months.

senior officials have kept their counsel during a difficult period when coronavirus and the oil price slump have laid low the Nigerian economy, but there are signs that reformists in Abuja are trying to use the crisis to their advantage – reflected in action to end fuel subsidies and accelerate power sector reforms. But despite some potentially important steps forward, the outlook is extremely difficult in a humanitarian crisis where social distancing is all but impossible for the majority of the population.

The problems of Nigeria’s southeast are rarely far from being a political and oil company preoccupation. Issues of governance and reputational damage weigh heavy on majors’ perceptions about operating in a lucrative but troubled region as lawyers busy themselves acting for local communities against Royal Dutch Shell and potentially other IOCs in a series of class actions. The new military top team appointed by President Muhammadu Buhari is challenged with reducing insecurity, including from rising levels of piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.

Nigerian Vice President Yemi Osinbajo has criticised the impetus from rich countries to divest from fossil fuels in a strongly-worded article for New York-based Foreign Affairs magazine, In The divestment delusion: Why banning fossil fuel investments would crush Africa, published on 31 August.

Ever since Chinua Achebe borrowed from WB Yates’ lines, “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world” for his ground-breaking novel of late colonial Nigeria, the phrase ‘things fall apart’ has been used to describe episodes in Nigerian politics. It is again relevant to ask whether the embattled Nigerian state can hold when confronted by a dizzying range of crises, writes Marc Howard.

Egypt’s role in brokering the 21 May ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has refocused attention on the two countries’ energy relations. It showed Cairo enjoying renewed relevance in both Washington and Tel Aviv, and potentially seeking to capitalise through commercial side-benefits.

Turkey – the largest market for gas in the region with almost no maritime territory of its own under international law – is pushing ahead with its own East Mediterranean exploration programme in defiance of its neighbours. Intractable as this disagreement has become, it is matched by a separate commercial problem. These abundant resources have become too expensive to justify exploitation under current conditions. The countries and companies that currently hold title to the gas will not only have to deal with Ankara but must also find ways of producing it much more cheaply to find a market.

Among Russia’s portfolio of interests in Africa – which include a large military sales business and nuclear development ambitions – state-owned entities such as Gazprom, Gazpromneft and Rosneft have built up hydrocarbons industry interests in markets around the continent, from Algeria in the north to Nigeria, and Angola and Mozambique south of the Sahara.  African Energy examines Russia's investments in Africa's upstream sector and its possible strategic objectives.

As Europe looks for alternative sources of natural gas to replace its current dependence on Russia, Italy may be best placed to gain additional export volumes from Algeria thanks largely to Eni’s historic commitment to the country. The depth of this relationship is again being  demonstrated as chief executive Claudio Descalzi shepherds through the deal to take over BP’s stakes in the strategically important In Amenas and In Salah gas projects. Lacking a similar depth of commitment, the UK-based major is pulling back perhaps a a consequence of the of the 2013 Jihadist attack on the Tiguentourine complex at In Amenas.  Read  African Energy analysis of Algiers’ response to Europe’s energy crisis.

European leaders are confronting the urgent need to diversify energy supplies away from Russia, while also somehow keeping to their commitments to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, that they made – indeed pioneered – at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, just four months ago.  African Energy examines the options and projects under discussion including gas and electricity imports and hydrogen prospects.

Minister of mineral and energy resources Gwede Mantashe said on 7 November the new draft Petroleum Amendment Bill, which is currently before cabinet, would be released for public comment within the next three weeks. The bill was drawn up following criticism of the previous government’s efforts to lump oil and gas with mining in the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA) Amendment Bill.