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As his presidency passes its second anniversary, Muhammadu Buhari is back in a London clinic, being treated for cancer. His absences, about which few facts filter officially, are causing jitters. The president had been expected to deliver a major anniversary speech on 29 May but remained abroad. Chief of army staff General Tukur Buratai’s 16 May warning that “some individuals have been approaching some officers and soldiers for undisclosed political reasons” added to the febrile atmosphere.

Senior Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and World Bank Group (WBG) officials have been negotiating an estimated $2.519bn loan to support the Buhari administration’s Power Sector Recovery Plan (PSRP), announced in late February. Taking the lead is the Advisory Power Team, lodged in the office of Vice-President Oluyemi Oluleke Osinbajo, the key player driving policy during President Muhammadu Buhari’s period of protracted illness. The FGN’s key negotiators are finance minister Kemi Adeosun and power, works and housing minister Babatunde Fashola.

The Senate on 25 May passed the first element of long-awaited sector reforms, the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB). The bill has now to go to the House of Representatives and, if successful, must eventually be signed into law by the federal president. Other elements of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) reforms are now expected to go through the system. The Senate’s vote was widely welcomed, with the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative among those who called on the House of Representatives to give the PIB “an accelerated consideration”.

The Egypt-Lebanon gas deal shows Cairo’s determination to reinforce its indispensable role as regional leader, but the highly publicised arrangement also highlights some of the contradictions in Cairo’s commercial gas strategy, write James Gavin and John Hamilton

Higher collection rates and cost increases for consumers are creating the fiscal space for Nigeria’s government to revive plans for a string of solar PV projects and direct trading between generation and distribution companies, writes Marc Howard.

A Nigerian court has ordered the seizure of $40m worth of jewellery and a customised gold iPhone belonging to former oil minister Diezani Alison-Madueke, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) said on 5 July. A list of items published by the court included 419 bangles, 315 rings and 189 wristwatches.

South Africa has many problems, stemming from the enduring legacies of apartheid and the fallout of more recent misrule, but could it be load-shedding and the perpetual crisis at state utility Eskom that finally ends the African National Congress (ANC)’s control of the state?

Eskom cut and then restored electricity supply to two municipalities in the Northern Cape on 7 October due to non-payment. Kamiesbergy and Richtersveld local municipalities saw their supply cut at 6am after they built up substantial arrears. Electricity was restored at 8pm after “an acceptable portion of their electricity debt” had been paid, Eskom said.

With elections coming up on 8 May, the power crisis in South Africa has peaked at an inconvenient time for President Cyril Ramaphosa. While opposition parties, particularly the Democratic Alliance, are seeking to make political capital out of the catastrophic deterioration in technical and financial performance at Eskom, there are also concerns that no substantial policy measures are likely until after the elections. This could have implications for policies such as the unbundling of transmission, where the government had aimed to appoint directors for a new entity around mid-year.

London’s High Court ruled that JP Morgan did not breach fiduciary rules when it transferred funds stemming from the sale of the controversial oil production licence (OPL) 245. The judgement reveals further details of graft in the long-running saga, as Justice Cockerill found that the original award of the licence was probably corrupt and ex-oil minister Dan Etete had benefitted financially from it. Meanwhile, 25 years after it was first awarded, other disputes continue over the highly prospective OPL 245.

The Zondo Commission has finally published the key volumes of part IV of the State Capture Commission Report, detailing the Gupta brothers’ takeover of South Africa’s energy sector. A range of people have been identified as potentially guilty of criminal offences, writes Dan Marks.

The rapid advance of the Tigrayan Defence Force (TDF) and its United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces (UFEFC) allies has led many to speculate that the Tirgayans’ promise to take Addis Ababa may be realised.

The risk that almost 11GW of planned sub-Saharan power generation capacity will be shelved if Beijing carries through on one of its more public climate change pledges, to end state financing of overseas coal projects, underlines the extent Chinese policy impacts on African economies. In the run-up to a COP26 meeting, where superpower posturing may overwhelm efforts to achieve global consensus, Chinese policy on foreign projects, military expansion and huge debts are examined by Marc Howard, Ajay Ubhi and Jon Marks

President Cyril Ramaphosa used his state of the nation address to set out measures the government is taking to combat the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, with energy close to the top of the list of priorities. New procurement may finally get under way soon, writes Dan Marks

A mid-January agreement between Sudan and South Sudan to expand oil cooperation has raised expectations of improved relations yielding material benefits for both states from the south’s under-utilised hydrocarbons reserves. But familiar obstacles are blocking progress, writes James Gavin.