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Judging by the headlines, 2014 has been a significant year for improving electricity supply in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where only 290m of the 915m population has access and the total number without grid connections is still rising, according to the International Energy Agency. Several independent power projects (IPPs) have reached financial close, including Ghana’s long-awaited Cenpower deal; others are almost there – most notably Nigeria’s template-setting Azura-Edo IPP, whose impending completion was a focus for participants at the 24-25 November Africa Investment Exchange: Energy (AIX) meeting in London. Multilaterals and governments report progress in efforts to develop ‘transformational’ schemes including Grand Inga and strategic transmission projects.

The conflict over the former Spanish Sahara is all too often forgotten. But there is a growing feeling in policy circles – shared by companies eager to exploit the territory’s hydrocarbons and mineral potential – that the Western Sahara standoff is overdue a promotion up the international policy agenda. Crisis in the Sahel, where French and African Union forces have confronted jihadist radicals in Mali, has added to pressures to revisit the intractable conflict, more than 40 years since the Polisario Front liberation movement was formed, 38 years since Morocco’s late King Hassan II organised his ‘Green March’ into the territory, and 22 years since a United Nations-sponsored ceasefire was declared.

African leaders, backed by key donors, earlier this year approved another initiative to increase electricity generation and access across the continent; and multilateral and government officials have since been working to put flesh on the bones of the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). Jointly developed by the African Union (AU), New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad) and African Development Bank to map out an energy infrastructure development programme in the period to 2040, PIDA promises much – and its ambitious goals are to be welcomed. “The programme aims for achieving energy accessibility of all the African population of not less than 60% by 2040. This requires annual growth of the energy sector by 6.2% and an annual investment of $40.5bn,” a recent PIDA document says.

The global energy transition is having profound impacts on natural resource producers, from the oil majors who are morphing into energy providers, to mining companies whose priorities are shifting as electric vehicles (EVs), battery storage and other new technologies take hold, and African governments and non-state actors who might profit from these changes but could also find themselves embroiled in new resource wars.

The rules governing a new mechanism for the international trading of carbon emission reduction credits is due to be agreed at the Bonn Climate Change Conference, which runs from 6-16 June in Germany. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – which has so far proved of limited value to Africa – is set to be replaced by Article 6 of the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference’s Paris Agreement, which is intended to offer governments and project owners the potential to tap into a  new source of finance.

Headlines in mid-October suggested renewed vibrancy in the Nigerian hydrocarbons industry under President Muhammadu Buhari, talking of mega-deals involving ExxonMobil and Indian investment, and plans for exploration in the north-east (see Upstream) and to raise domestic refining capacity to 650,000 b/d (from 445,000 b/d). But the divestment to the local Nipco Investments of ExxonMobil’s 60% stake in Mobil Oil Nigeria leaves Total as the sole major still operating in the downstream; the Indian deal, if it can be delivered, seems a desperate effort to raise cash. International oil companies (IOCs) continue to downsize, amid a damaging escalation of Niger Delta violence.

President Muhammadu Buhari finally responded to popular concerns over security by replacing his military top team on 26 January. With the economy hobbled by low oil prices and coronavirus, he has allowed a little more economic flexibility, although it remains to be seen whether his costly defence of the naira’s inflated value will be replaced by the foreign exchange market unification favoured by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

Germany’s offer of support for a first hydrogen (GH2) plant in Morocco makes the North African country a potential early mover in the race to build a hydrogen economy on the continent.

Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dabaiba may just have won another round in the unedifying slugfest for control over Libya’s government and resources. It seemed like a mistake when Dabaiba replaced National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla with former Qadhafi-era Central Bank of Libya governor Farhat Ben Gdara in late July, but the move seems to have bought the PM more time.

Less than a year from elections, numerous candidates are eyeing up the prize of taking over from President Muhammadu Buhari. 

Is anyone listening to National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla? He has issued repeated appeals to the international community to change its approach to the crisis in Libya to help his institution to better carry out its functions and to protect the interests of the Libyan people.At Chatham House in January, he described NOC as “the best guarantee that Libya will remain as a unitary state” and called for the international community to support its independence.

The purchase of BG Group by Royal Dutch Shell confirmed predictionsthat the falling oil price would trigger a spate of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the upstream industry. It points to a need for even the biggest players to build scale in developing their natural gas trade; for Shell, BG’s assets in Australia and the Atlantic Basin (Brazil) will help to secure a dominant position in Asian and other key markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Spectrum has begun the first of three multi-client 3D seismic acquisition programmes offshore Gabon in preparation for future licensing rounds. On 31 December, Spectrum started acquisition of the 10,000km2 Gryphon 3D survey in southern Gabon. Spectrum said the survey had attracted strong industry funding and was expected to be completed in early Q3 2017. A further 5,000km2 3D survey over open acreage in northern Gabon, and an additional 3,000km2 3D survey offshore central Gabon will start in Q1 and Q2 respectively. Gravity and magnetic data will also be acquired.

Sonatrach director-general Abdelmoumen Ould Kaddour regularly tours the hydrocarbons giant’s sprawling empire, rallying workers and telling journalists about Algeria’s return to producing oil and gas on a global scale, after years of corruption scandals and management inertia. On his 8 February visit to Hassi R’Mel, he announced that Sonatrach would invest $56bn in 2018-22. In an interview, he referred to discussions with Total on an unspecified $5bn project. After a long period of tensions with the French major, this is likely to be a major new petrochemicals project, giving further substance to claims Algeria is back as a force in the industry.

The Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy has awarded contracts for domestic gas development projects to three of the 14 companies who bid last year in a tender for projects to utilise gas from the Rovuma Basin development.Norway’s Yara International was granted an allocation of 80-90 mcf/d of gas to produce 1.2-1.3m t/yr of fertilisers and 30MW-50MW of power. Royal Dutch Shell subsidiary Shell Moçambique BV was granted 310-330mcf/d of gas to produce 38m b/d of liquid fuels (diesel, naphtha and kerosene) and 50MW-80MW of power.