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Relationships with China have become and will remain a defining feature of most African states’ economic and geopolitical relations. Those relations are not always easy, as reflected in the popular anger at Beijing’s handling of the thousands of African students and traders stranded by coronavirus. Tensions have been rising over many countries’ mounting debts. As Covid-19 drives global recession, China’s reluctance to join the International Monetary Fund and Paris Club in negotiating transparent long-term debt relief is a concern.

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As usual, there was no explanation from Luanda of President José Eduardo dos Santos’ partial government reshuffle on 5 October, which reorganised key economic departments and the senior ranks of the military.

Angola
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The Government of Southern Sudan will not compromise in negotiations with the north over the status of Abyei, and is prepared to take up arms again if the impasse continues

South Sudan | Sudan
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The legacy of colonialism may continue to shape contemporary Africa, but policymakers must also grapple with more recent follies as they struggle to address the legal and financial ramifications of decades of poorly structured and inadequately implemented infrastructure development. Many of the inconsistencies and contradictions that dog Africa’s power sector stem from reactive policymaking geared towards managing the fallout from previous poor decisions, as well as ensuring alignment with the short-term interests of political players.

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This year has seen policy-makers reassess their responses to the impacts of renewables and distributed (off-grid) technologies, while analysts focus on how changing consumer behaviours could radically change the global energy industry. Conservative development finance institutions have bought into the ‘off-grid revolution’ – underlined by the World Bank’s decision to end decades of support for upstream oil and gas projects – and even the most petrol-headed of oil majors have changed their traditional tone, highlighted by ExxonMobil’s 11 December announcement that it will start publishing reports on the possible impact of climate policies on its business.

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While there is still much more exploration work to be done, Kenya’s discovery of oil is important for more than just national pride. The find, announced in April by Block 10BB operator Tullow Oil, is a significant stabilising factor for regional development as it enables the East African Community (EAC)’s main economic and political power to take a seat at the table alongside its hitherto luckier neighbours.

Kenya | Uganda | Tanzania
Issue 423 - 24 September 2020

New gas investments face big challenges

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Competition is believed to be intense as bidding closes to take over Sasol’s 50% stake in the Rompco pipeline, which runs 865km from the Temane gas field in Mozambique to Sasol’s Secunda complex in Mpumalanga.

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The Zambian government’s refusal to make a $42.5m interest payment by its 13 November deadline – thereby triggering a sovereign debt default – was hardly a surprise. The investor appetite that persuaded lenders to pile into $3bn-worth of Eurobonds has waned on President Edgar Lungu’s watch, while Covid-19 and falling commodity prices have affected sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the region’s economy will contract by 3% in 2020 and its forecast 3.1% growth in 2021 will be “a smaller expansion than expected in much of the rest of the world”.

Zambia
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Southern African governments have been slow to recognise the potential of regional power pools to draw investment into their countries. Most have seen the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) through a resource nationalist lens...

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According to the most widely accepted version of still hazy events, President Idriss Déby Itno (IDI) was injured on 17-18 April fighting rebels near Mao in the Kanem region, some 300km from N’djamena; he was pronounced dead early on 20 April. The military leader, who became president in 1990, had just been re-elected (with 79.32% of the official vote) for a sixth term in a vote on 11 April.

DR Congo | Mali
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Coming only days after France committed troops and its air force to overturning dramatic advances made by Islamist militants in Mali, the 16 January attack on a gas production facility at In Amenas, in south-eastern Algeria, underlined the security threat and political volatility that now blight the Saharan/Sahel region. Never during the 1990s conflict with radical Islam did a major Algerian hydrocarbons facility face such attack.

Mauritania | Niger | Libya | Algeria | Mali
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Barring unwelcome twists in Nigeria’s volatile elite politics, Goodluck Jonathan’s peaceful departure from Aso Rock will be judged an unexpected success at the end of a largely failed presidency. The economy has grown over the past five years, but the president’s role in this was limited at best, while mismanagement of issues such as the jihadist insurgency in the north-east has added to Nigerians’ insecurity. Jonathan’s defeat means that no future president can rest comfortable in the assumption that his ultimate control of the levers of patronage will translate into electoral success; this is a major step forward for Nigeria and, arguably, the continent.

Nigeria
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The problems of Nigeria’s southeast are rarely far from being a political and oil company preoccupation. Issues of governance and reputational damage weigh heavy on majors’ perceptions about operating in a lucrative but troubled region as lawyers busy themselves acting for local communities against Royal Dutch Shell and potentially other IOCs in a series of class actions. The new military top team appointed by President Muhammadu Buhari is challenged with reducing insecurity, including from rising levels of piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.

Nigeria
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World leaders failed to secure a binding global treaty on reducing carbon emissions at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen – not least due to opposition from a radical group including Venezuela and Sudan, as well as differences between global giants led by the United States and China. Leaders did secure a deal to limit

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Too often ignored except in times of extreme crisis, Lesotho is looking to emerge from years of political instability and economic malaise under previous coalition governments, as the Basotho population counts on newly-elected tycoon Prime Minister Sam Matekane to usher in transformative change.

Lesotho