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Launched by President Barack Obama in Cape Town one year ago, the US Power Africa initiative has been making bold claims about its early successes in a campaign to boost sub-Saharan Africa’s installed generation capacity by some 10GW and connect some 20m more homes and businesses to the grid by 2020 (AE 258/5). Power Africa claims it will make some $7bn available in financial support and loan guarantees from 12 government agencies, led by the Export-Import Bank of the United States (Ex-Im Bank), Overseas Private Investment Corporation and US Trade and Development Agency (USTDA).

The Abidjan-based Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM) stock exchange is ambitious but lacks liquidity. Questions persist about the CFA franc peg, underwritten by the French treasury since the West African currency was created in 1945. Destructive trends from climate change to jihadist insurgency can be acutely destabilising to under-resourced governments, while commodity shocks are a perennial headache in economies dependent on agri-business and oil imports.

A significant market is emerging across the continent for renewables-based commercial and industrial (C&I) energy projects. In all but a handful of markets, the talk is of a potential that will soon be measured in gigawatts, rather than the usual dozens (at most) of megawatts of an established business. As Kenya-based Astonfield Solar’s chairman Ameet Shah puts it, the technology is still in its early days – as in some cases is the quality of its delivery to clients – but the C&I industry will reach lift-off even before the ‘transformational’ 24-hour storage becomes the norm.

Twenty years ago, a new publication was launched to fill a gap in FT Energy’s global map: African Energy created in April 1998 as a monthly report, meant the Financial Times subsidiary could claim to cover the world; previously, its stable of newsletters and online products had largely ignored Africa. African Energy opened its account with news that financing for the planned $3.5bn Chad-Cameroon pipeline was falling into place. That controversial project was eventually built, while others have taken longer to leave the drawing board.

President Idriss Déby Itno has attempted to get tough with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) over environmental violations at the Ronier field. This minor development is significant because of increased international interest in the Chadian upstream, with new companies taking acreage in the hope of finding successful rift basin plays, and for what it says about N’Djaména’s relationship with its biggest investor. The government halted CNPC’s operations in August after finding waste crude stored in open pits. However, it lifted the suspension in October after CNPC promised to literally clean up its act.

On paper at least, the new ceasefire signed on 9 May between South Sudan President Salva Kiir and his opponent Riek Machar is a step forward. Not only does it recommit them to the terms of the 23 January ceasefire, but provisions for a transitional unity government and fresh elections go several steps further. As well as Kiir’s government and Machar’s forces, the peace process would include a group of key figures detained until recently by the government, representatives of political parties and civil society, and religious leaders.

Debt restructurings and budget cuts, and reform commitments still to be implemented: in many respects, newsflow from Republic of Congo is much as usual. However, the coronavirus lockdown and oil price slump have severely exacerbated the problems confronting President Denis Sassou Nguesso’s government and the population’s daily lives.

Relationships with China have become and will remain a defining feature of most African states’ economic and geopolitical relations. Those relations are not always easy, as reflected in the popular anger at Beijing’s handling of the thousands of African students and traders stranded by coronavirus. Tensions have been rising over many countries’ mounting debts. As Covid-19 drives global recession, China’s reluctance to join the International Monetary Fund and Paris Club in negotiating transparent long-term debt relief is a concern.

As usual, there was no explanation from Luanda of President José Eduardo dos Santos’ partial government reshuffle on 5 October, which reorganised key economic departments and the senior ranks of the military.

The Government of Southern Sudan will not compromise in negotiations with the north over the status of Abyei, and is prepared to take up arms again if the impasse continues

The legacy of colonialism may continue to shape contemporary Africa, but policymakers must also grapple with more recent follies as they struggle to address the legal and financial ramifications of decades of poorly structured and inadequately implemented infrastructure development. Many of the inconsistencies and contradictions that dog Africa’s power sector stem from reactive policymaking geared towards managing the fallout from previous poor decisions, as well as ensuring alignment with the short-term interests of political players.

This year has seen policy-makers reassess their responses to the impacts of renewables and distributed (off-grid) technologies, while analysts focus on how changing consumer behaviours could radically change the global energy industry. Conservative development finance institutions have bought into the ‘off-grid revolution’ – underlined by the World Bank’s decision to end decades of support for upstream oil and gas projects – and even the most petrol-headed of oil majors have changed their traditional tone, highlighted by ExxonMobil’s 11 December announcement that it will start publishing reports on the possible impact of climate policies on its business.

While there is still much more exploration work to be done, Kenya’s discovery of oil is important for more than just national pride. The find, announced in April by Block 10BB operator Tullow Oil, is a significant stabilising factor for regional development as it enables the East African Community (EAC)’s main economic and political power to take a seat at the table alongside its hitherto luckier neighbours.

Competition is believed to be intense as bidding closes to take over Sasol’s 50% stake in the Rompco pipeline, which runs 865km from the Temane gas field in Mozambique to Sasol’s Secunda complex in Mpumalanga.

The Zambian government’s refusal to make a $42.5m interest payment by its 13 November deadline – thereby triggering a sovereign debt default – was hardly a surprise. The investor appetite that persuaded lenders to pile into $3bn-worth of Eurobonds has waned on President Edgar Lungu’s watch, while Covid-19 and falling commodity prices have affected sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the region’s economy will contract by 3% in 2020 and its forecast 3.1% growth in 2021 will be “a smaller expansion than expected in much of the rest of the world”.