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It says something for the political climate – and the power of social media – that Reuters on 2 December ran a story headlined: “Nigeria’s Buhari denies dying and being replaced by lookalike.” It quoted President Muhammadu Buhari telling diaspora Nigerians in Poland, where he was attending COP24 climate talks: “It’s real me, I assure you. I will soon celebrate my 76th birthday and I will still go strong.” He was referring to internet rumours that he had died and been replaced by a Sudanese-born body double.

The newsflow from Nigeria is, as ever, hectic: political alliances are shifting as President Muhammadu Buhari’s All Progressives Congress splits and the People’s Democratic Party, written off only one election cycle ago, draws back power-brokers; finance minister Kemi Adeosun has resigned over her submission of an apparently forged National Youth Service Corps exemption certificate (she had anyway thought she was exempt, having lived in the UK until she was 34); clashes between herders and farmers in the Middle Belt are now killing more people than the jihadist Boko Haram – which has not gone away despite huge military operations.

Egypt is a country full of ambiguities for investors and risk analysts, let alone for a population living under the economic restructuring and authoritarian rule of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. “The Egyptian power sector is viewed as an attractive destination for investment due to a relatively stable government, economy and policy direction,” observes the new Egypt Power Report from the African Energy consultancy. In the upstream, the huge Zohr offshore gas find has revived optimism about an industry that was mired in debt and problems with investors.

Its wealth of renewable energy resources, availability of land and proximity to markets mean Africa holds the key to Europe’s vision of a net zero future based on green hydrogen (GH2) use. The manufacture of carbon-free liquid fuels could also transform the continent, but project sponsors, financers and offtakers need to ensure this is done fairly, while contributing to economic and social development. The establishment of the European Hydrogen Bank can be a crucial step in that direction.

The timing of the official commissioning of the 650,000 b/d Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemical Plant on 22 May said as much about local political sensitivities as it did about the facility’s undoubted importance for the Nigerian energy sector.

Not since the Cold War have countries in the Global South featured so prominently in the thinking of the world’s major powers – something clearly visible in the shifting patterns in energy markets and renewable investments. For many, that presents an opportunity. Angola’s President João Lourenço has sought to position his country as an investor-friendly environment and to convince critics he is serious about tackling corruption and other ills that flourished under his predecessor José Eduardo dos Santos. This is a calculated effort to win support from donors and has already received a positive response in Washington and other capitals.

A novel debt restructuring deal between Zambia and its bilateral creditors should pave the way for Lusaka to finally receive new assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and, in time, move beyond its debt defaulting status with credit ratings agencies. The deal could help to relieve pressure on debt-stressed state utility Zesco but, as so often, the devil resides in the detail and some significant elements have yet to be put in place, including a critical agreement with private creditors that could involve further tough negotiations with Beijing.

Much of the news flow ahead of the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow in November has been about which global leaders will turn up and what carbon reduction commitments they will make. Many in Africa are more concerned the least-developed continent will be forced to adopt ill-fitting policy straightjackets and forced to choose between rival superpower-led development models, most notably China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative (BRI) and the US-led Clean Green Initiative (CGI) and Build Back Better for the World (B3W) programmes.

Uncomfortable financial disputes are expected to dominate the 27th United Nations Climate Change (COP27) conference, to be held in the Egyptian Red Sea resort city of Sharm El Sheikh on 6-18 November. African nations may achieve progress in some areas – perhaps by forcing the vexed question of compensation for loss and damage onto the agenda – but the meeting will likely once again fail to identify a way forward for electricity supply industries (ESIs) across the continent.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed triumphantly announced on 10 September that the fourth and final filling of the $4.2bn Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd) reservoir had been completed, raising the 74km3 reservoir’s water level to 625 metres; last year’s third filling had brought levels to 600 metres.

The final COP28 communiqué included – for the first time – a commitment to eventually phase out fossil fuels, going beyond previous declarations that focused on coal. However, there are few signs that Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) members and their Opec+ allies, led by Russia, have any intention of allowing their core source of revenues to disappear anytime soon. So what can we learn from recent statements by oil producers – including Opec+’s quota commitments at a meeting on 30 November – and from leaks and comments made during COP28?

Publication of the 500th issue provides an opportunity to look back at a few triumphs and many missed opportunities in the industries African Energy has covered since it was launched in 1998. Industry and financial trends have evolved, and sometimes returned to haunt stakeholders years after they were thought to be history. One constant has been the huge increase in the continent’s population, which means the UN target of universal clean energy access is constantly pushed into the distance.

As Namibia enters a new period of hydrocarbons and minerals-driven development, the death of President Hague Geingob has set up a political transition in which vice president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is favourite to become the country’s first female leader at elections in November, but nothing is certain as Swapo factions manoeuvre for position.

Political uncertainty grips South Africa ahead of national and provincial elections on 29 May, with opinion polls suggesting the ruling African National Congress could lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years, raising the possibility of a coalition government and the prospect of a surge in ‘pork barrel’ politics.

Is anyone listening to National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla? He has issued repeated appeals to the international community to change its approach to the crisis in Libya to help his institution to better carry out its functions and to protect the interests of the Libyan people.At Chatham House in January, he described NOC as “the best guarantee that Libya will remain as a unitary state” and called for the international community to support its independence.