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A realignment of global alliances is ever more apparent as the first anniversary of Russia’s attempted conquest of Ukraine approaches and global power and wealth seem to concentrate in ever fewer hands. This has been seen in the solidarity among members of the Opec+ oil exporters’ alliance, in which long western-aligned Saudi Arabia and President Vladimir Putin’s Russia remain the driving forces.

Commercial and industrial (C&I) power has experienced a tremendous boom in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), as companies look for alternatives to failing state utilities, not least in the continent’s largest economies South Africa and Nigeria.

Establishing a reliable financial framework for building cross-border power interconnections may be the single most effective way to improve electrification across sub-Saharan Africa. Yet bureaucratic impediments are holding up progress at an important scheme, the Southern Africa Power Pool (Sapp)’s Regional Transmission Infrastructure Financing Facility (RTIFF), which could implement its first projects in two to three years – with the right support.

Even before the new Middle East war shattered comfortable assumptions about regional security, the global economic climate remained hostile to many heavily-indebted and financially stressed governments, and to populations who have struggled to live with fallout from the pandemic and Ukraine war, which has included painful levels of inflation and costly currency volatility. African Energy offers a few pointers towards another difficult year ahead, as the IMF issues its annual appraisals of the global outlook and regional economic performance, and the Israel-Palestine conflict returns to centre stage in an increasingly polarised world.

The chances of long-awaited LNG schemes moving ahead have been bolstered by Rwanda’s expanded commitment to battling the northern Cabo Delgado province’s enduring Islamist insurgency on behalf of the Maputo government, a move very much in the interests of the international majors planning multi-billion dollar projects. Many other problems remain to be resolved as Mozambique prepares for President Nyusi to stand down in October – in an election where the ruling Frelimo party’s candidate will be Daniel Chapo, whose outsider status points to further splits in the ruling elite.

It is more than a whisper: international institutions and private equity (PE) investors are again exploring major hydroelectric power (HEP) deals, after years during which environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns made big dams a problematic issue for development finance institutions (DFI) and other potential investors.

The Nigerian government needs an urgent boost after essential macroeconomic reform measures sparked huge public opposition. By placing President Bola Tinubu at the centre of plans to revive long stalled projects, Abuja can point to the potential for a better economic performance ahead – at least in the longer term – while opponents test the administration’s resilience with the threat of more short-term disorder.

Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s announcement that he will not seek a fifth term as Algerian president has once again raised questions of gerontocracy and failed governance in Africa. Tunisian head of state Béji Caïd Essebsi benefits from a degree of popular legitimacy but many citizens are concerned that the spry ‘BCE’ at 92 is too old to stand again when presidential elections are held in December. Before that, his fractured Nidaa Tounès (NT) will come under a strong challenge from the Islamist Ennahda party, now the two major parties’ alliance has broken down, and from other rivals, when parliamentary elections are held in October.

For Bola Tinubu, as for previous Nigerian presidents, one measure of success at overcoming the graft and mismanagement that have undermined the economy for decades will be his ability to halt systemic oil theft in the Niger Delta. Tinubu’s administration and military chiefs are setting drones and other technology to work, but whether they can overcome the usual vested interests to harness desperately needed higher revenue flows and investment remains to be seen.