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It is easy to forget that Côte d’Ivoire remains classed as a ‘fragile state’, when viewed from Abidjan’s refurbished hotels and burgeoning malls, many developed by long-established Lebanese families who are trading up from their traditional supermarkets. The African Development Bank’s return after 11 years in Tunis exile is one factor pushing up real estate prices and school fees in wealthier neighbourhoods.

Efforts to establish a national unity government, agreed in principle by negotiators on 17 December, are foundering. United Nations Security Council resolution 2259, which endorsed the political agreement brokered by UN Support Mission in Libya chief Martin Kobler, gave a nine-member Presidency Council (currently based in Tunis) 30 days to form an administration and gain the ratification of the rival House of Representatives (HoR) and General National Congress. These two bodies will eventually become the parliament and State Council.

The aftershocks will be felt across Algeria’s economy and society after the tremors caused by the 13 September departure from the Département du Renseignement et de la Sécurité (DRS) of Lieutenant General Mohamed ‘Tewfik’ Mediene. After more than 25 years of running military intelligence, Mediene had become a near legendary representation of the opaque powers that dominate Algerian politics. His agency was critical in prosecuting high-level corruption cases against Sonatrach and other major players, as well as countering radical Islam across the region.

There are positive signs coming from Nigeria, where independent power producers will be delighted at the breakthrough in the impasse blocking the 450MW Azura-Edo gas-fired plant, seen as a template for IPPs in the country. Change at the top of Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and efforts to draw more funds into public coffers – which has included action on oil swap contracts and a decision that all payments to state institutions should go into a single account at Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) – have been generally well received.

On a wave of optimism about its offshore Rovuma Basin reserves, Mozambique has emerged as a poster boy for the ‘Africa rising’ agenda. With at least 100tcf of conventional gas reserves – and potentially more than double that amount, according to a range of project sources – this global-scale resource should drive the emergence of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export industry and substantial domestic and regional electricity supply in the next decade. Mozambique enthusiasts add that the country enjoys several other advantages, including proximity to markets and relatively streamlined decision-making (especially when compared to its potential rival for LNG export markets, neighbouring Tanzania).

The purchase of BG Group by Royal Dutch Shell confirmed predictionsthat the falling oil price would trigger a spate of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the upstream industry. It points to a need for even the biggest players to build scale in developing their natural gas trade; for Shell, BG’s assets in Australia and the Atlantic Basin (Brazil) will help to secure a dominant position in Asian and other key markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Barring unwelcome twists in Nigeria’s volatile elite politics, Goodluck Jonathan’s peaceful departure from Aso Rock will be judged an unexpected success at the end of a largely failed presidency. The economy has grown over the past five years, but the president’s role in this was limited at best, while mismanagement of issues such as the jihadist insurgency in the north-east has added to Nigerians’ insecurity. Jonathan’s defeat means that no future president can rest comfortable in the assumption that his ultimate control of the levers of patronage will translate into electoral success; this is a major step forward for Nigeria and, arguably, the continent.

Autocratic Chadian President Idriss Déby Itno may not be a leader to suit everybody’s taste, but his deployment of troops against Nigeria’s Boko Haram militants – as against jihadists in Mali two years ago – has confirmed his reputation as a regional leader who understands the need to counter a threat proactively. By comparison, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan does not come out well: with his forces seen as ineffective, if not part of the problem, in countering Boko Haram, the ‘accidental president’ has kept a low profile as north-eastern states have borne the brunt of jihadist assaults.

Prime minister-designate Habib Essid initiated fresh consultations with political parties on 27 January after initial soundings suggested the Assemblée des Représentants du Peuple (ARP) would not approve his proposed cabinet. Given the now well-established tradition of political dialogue between opposing political forces, this is not expected to long delay the formation of a fully constitutional and democratically legitimate government, which will end the transition started by the ousting of President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali four years ago. Against this massive achievement, huge challenges also confront the nation, not least the deteriorating instability in Libya and Tunisia’s own great economic problems.

Veteran Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo) leader Afonso Dhlakama’s surprise return to the bush in October 2012 was an unsettling reminder of the fragility of post-conflict Mozambique, as guerrilla roadblocks returned and coal exports were halted in the central region. Renamo’s rebellion was triggered by demands for a greater share of state jobs and resources. A peace agreement signed on 24 August 2014 promised jobs, above all in the army and police, and set a platform for campaigning to start for general elections on 15 October.

Launched by President Barack Obama in Cape Town one year ago, the US Power Africa initiative has been making bold claims about its early successes in a campaign to boost sub-Saharan Africa’s installed generation capacity by some 10GW and connect some 20m more homes and businesses to the grid by 2020 (AE 258/5). Power Africa claims it will make some $7bn available in financial support and loan guarantees from 12 government agencies, led by the Export-Import Bank of the United States (Ex-Im Bank), Overseas Private Investment Corporation and US Trade and Development Agency (USTDA).

On paper at least, the new ceasefire signed on 9 May between South Sudan President Salva Kiir and his opponent Riek Machar is a step forward. Not only does it recommit them to the terms of the 23 January ceasefire, but provisions for a transitional unity government and fresh elections go several steps further. As well as Kiir’s government and Machar’s forces, the peace process would include a group of key figures detained until recently by the government, representatives of political parties and civil society, and religious leaders.

Nigerian business leaders may bask in the nation’s inclusion (with Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) among the ‘Mint’ economies, predicted by Brics creator Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs to lead the next generation of emerging markets. That status will be confirmed if, as expected, Nigeria overtakes South Africa as Africa’s largest national economy. Optimism has been reinforced by the promise of initiatives such as the 2013 privatisation of electricity assets, much of it funded from local capital markets. But there are still plenty of issues to give rise to concern, even when security concerns in the north and Niger Delta are discounted.

President Idriss Déby Itno has attempted to get tough with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) over environmental violations at the Ronier field. This minor development is significant because of increased international interest in the Chadian upstream, with new companies taking acreage in the hope of finding successful rift basin plays, and for what it says about N’Djaména’s relationship with its biggest investor. The government halted CNPC’s operations in August after finding waste crude stored in open pits. However, it lifted the suspension in October after CNPC promised to literally clean up its act.

South Africans, with President Jacob Zuma at their head, have long dreaded Nelson Mandela’s death, as not only a sad close to a major chapter in history, but also because it will force the nation to look more closely at its values, leadership and governance. Many South Africans do not like what they see, to the extent that Mandela’s political legacy may no longer be the ruling African National Congress (ANC)’s sole preserve, as new movements emerge on the left and the Democratic Alliance (DA) seeks to widen its appeal.