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Climate change – closely linked to the intractable issues of poverty and inequality – is an issue preoccupying policy-makers around the world, but its impacts are particularly acute across swathes of Africa. But while calls for swifter action to unlock larger amounts of financing were paramount at the inaugural Africa Climate Summit (ACS), held in Nairobi on 4-6 September, it was also apparent that views differ widely on how to address the challenge.

The agreement for Senegal to become only the second African economy to secure a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) has the potential to salvage the climate financing framework’s credibility, which appeared to be flatlining.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has ticked a lot of the right boxes for those hoping Nigeria will at last tackle the thorny problems that have hobbled the country’s economic and political prospects. In some respects, he has moved even more quickly than even those close to his transition team expected, in response to the deterioration of key indicators during his predecessor Muhammadu Buhari’s two terms. 

A novel debt restructuring deal between Zambia and its bilateral creditors should pave the way for Lusaka to finally receive new assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and, in time, move beyond its debt defaulting status with credit ratings agencies. The deal could help to relieve pressure on debt-stressed state utility Zesco but, as so often, the devil resides in the detail and some significant elements have yet to be put in place, including a critical agreement with private creditors that could involve further tough negotiations with Beijing.

Not since the Cold War have countries in the Global South featured so prominently in the thinking of the world’s major powers – something clearly visible in the shifting patterns in energy markets and renewable investments. For many, that presents an opportunity. Angola’s President João Lourenço has sought to position his country as an investor-friendly environment and to convince critics he is serious about tackling corruption and other ills that flourished under his predecessor José Eduardo dos Santos. This is a calculated effort to win support from donors and has already received a positive response in Washington and other capitals.

The timing of the official commissioning of the 650,000 b/d Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemical Plant on 22 May said as much about local political sensitivities as it did about the facility’s undoubted importance for the Nigerian energy sector.

Establishing a reliable financial framework for building cross-border power interconnections may be the single most effective way to improve electrification across sub-Saharan Africa. Yet bureaucratic impediments are holding up progress at an important scheme, the Southern Africa Power Pool (Sapp)’s Regional Transmission Infrastructure Financing Facility (RTIFF), which could implement its first projects in two to three years – with the right support.

Competition among international powers over access to critical raw minerals was intense even before Russia’s President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But the conflict has focused minds even more sharply in the United States and European Union over the ground they have ceded to China in relation to rare earth minerals and other essential supplies.

Its wealth of renewable energy resources, availability of land and proximity to markets mean Africa holds the key to Europe’s vision of a net zero future based on green hydrogen (GH2) use. The manufacture of carbon-free liquid fuels could also transform the continent, but project sponsors, financers and offtakers need to ensure this is done fairly, while contributing to economic and social development. The establishment of the European Hydrogen Bank can be a crucial step in that direction.

African nations, the governments of partner countries, international financial institutions (IFIs) and private investors are increasing their commitments to achieving universal energy access, the seventh of the United Nation’s sustainable development goals (SDG7). But the prospects of reaching the SDG7 target by 2030 are receding as population numbers continue to rise. A daunting amount of work remains to be done if SDG7 is to be achieved. In a newly published report commissioned by the Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP), Cross-border Information – the parent company of African Energy – has analysed financial flows towards SDG7 over the past seven years and their estimated potential trajectories to 2030 and beyond.

South Africa’s political and electricity supply industry (ESI) crisis has entered a new phase, after embattled President Cyril Ramaphosa was compelled to declare a National State of Disaster, as pressure intensifies on ruling African National Congress (ANC) bureaucrats to end the long-enduring energy catastrophe, which has shaved percentage points off growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, issued at the end of January, underlines China’s importance both globally and for an African continent where it has made considerable efforts to build political relations and infrastructure, in order to secure resources vital to its domestic growth.

Egypt has a good claim to have been the most dynamic of all African countries in 2022, but 2023 may be its year of reckoning. The currency crisis now ravaging the economy could bring President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s futuristic edifice of renewables, green hydrogen (GH2), new cities, real estate, electric trains, sea water desalination and social infrastructure crashing down unless he can keep on side a wide coalition. This includes the IMF and Gulf monarchies which are Egypt’s largest creditors, the military, whose economic prerogatives must now be curtailed, a hard-pressed population, and international business partners.

A realignment of global alliances is ever more apparent as the first anniversary of Russia’s attempted conquest of Ukraine approaches and global power and wealth seem to concentrate in ever fewer hands. This has been seen in the solidarity among members of the Opec+ oil exporters’ alliance, in which long western-aligned Saudi Arabia and President Vladimir Putin’s Russia remain the driving forces.

Modelling and number-crunching may not have the popular appeal of big new power stations or trans-continental interconnections, but they can be crucial to making markets work – and in Africa could open up new vistas for more efficient, more responsive and much larger electricity supply industries (ESIs).