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The chances of long-awaited LNG schemes moving ahead have been bolstered by Rwanda’s expanded commitment to battling the northern Cabo Delgado province’s enduring Islamist insurgency on behalf of the Maputo government, a move very much in the interests of the international majors planning multi-billion dollar projects. Many other problems remain to be resolved as Mozambique prepares for President Nyusi to stand down in October – in an election where the ruling Frelimo party’s candidate will be Daniel Chapo, whose outsider status points to further splits in the ruling elite.

African Energy’s investigation into National Oil Corporation (NOC)’s large budget and the failings at two of its most important upstream oil and gas projects shows how events at the national oil company holds significance far beyond the small number of oil majors and their partners who are directly involved. Understanding how Libya’s hydrocarbons sector is being run is a matter of vital concern to the Libyan people, whose futures are tied to its success or failure. The investigation should also be of prime interest to a wide range of African Energy subscribers, including those involved in renewable and thermal power or the trade in gas and liquid fuels. Sooner or later, resolving the problems that African Energy is exposing will require the involvement of businesses across the whole energy sector spectrum.

Political uncertainty grips South Africa ahead of national and provincial elections on 29 May, with opinion polls suggesting the ruling African National Congress could lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years, raising the possibility of a coalition government and the prospect of a surge in ‘pork barrel’ politics.

Sudan may be on the verge of a de facto split, its infrastructure is in ruins and populations are struggling to survive a global-scale humanitarian crisis, but there is little incentive for either side to back down one year after militia leader Hemedti launched his RSF’s campaign against erstwhile ally the Sudan Armed Forces regime. While attention is focused on conflicts elsewhere, a major African country is being destroyed for personal advantage in a conflict marked by significant intervention from the wider region.

Shortfalls in financial flows, failures to deal with debt and a lack of voice in global decision-making arenas are longstanding issues that African leaders are now seeking to address, with leaders from Ghana, Kenya and Zambia setting out a blueprint for reform covering everything from UN Security Council seats to the reallocation of $100bn-worth of assets held by the IMF. The extent to which these ambitious goals can be achieved could prove critical to Africa’s ability to finance and structure the energy transition on its terms – but the continent’s governments also need to accelerate their own reforms.

As Namibia enters a new period of hydrocarbons and minerals-driven development, the death of President Hague Geingob has set up a political transition in which vice president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is favourite to become the country’s first female leader at elections in November, but nothing is certain as Swapo factions manoeuvre for position.

Publication of the 500th issue provides an opportunity to look back at a few triumphs and many missed opportunities in the industries African Energy has covered since it was launched in 1998. Industry and financial trends have evolved, and sometimes returned to haunt stakeholders years after they were thought to be history. One constant has been the huge increase in the continent’s population, which means the UN target of universal clean energy access is constantly pushed into the distance.

Côte d’Ivoire’s three times oversubscribed $2.6bn dollar Eurobond issue underlines President Alassane Dramane Ouattara’s reputation for prudent economic management – a status that will add to pressures from supporters for ‘ADO’ to stand for a controversial fourth term – and offers some hope for under-pressure African borrowers who could benefit from renewed access to international capital markets and the relatively attractive interest rates CdI has secured.

African electricity markets are on the threshold of genuine reform in 2024, even if policy-makers’ grandest ambitions are destined to meet with disappointment. African Energy has examined the first data that has emerged from the third development phase of the African Union’s Continental Master Plan and found much to applaud.

The final COP28 communiqué included – for the first time – a commitment to eventually phase out fossil fuels, going beyond previous declarations that focused on coal. However, there are few signs that Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) members and their Opec+ allies, led by Russia, have any intention of allowing their core source of revenues to disappear anytime soon. So what can we learn from recent statements by oil producers – including Opec+’s quota commitments at a meeting on 30 November – and from leaks and comments made during COP28?

In a recent conversation, an independent power producer (IPP) told African Energy that its southern African utility client has been paying for its electricity “more or less on time”. The problem was those payments were being made in a local currency that cannot be exchanged as “the central bank has no money”. The IPP could turn to international arbitration to try and enforce its contract terms, “but what’s the use of that,” the executive asks, “when there’s nothing to be had?”

Some pessimistic observers are heralding the end of the independent power producer (IPP) era, with the potential demise of actors and project models that have dominated private sector investment in electricity generation since the 1990s. With criticism of IPP costs providing grist to populist mills across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) – feeding into narratives of western ‘exploitation’ and anger over rising living costs – politicians have been calling for change, while developers are finding market conditions ever more challenging.

Even before the new Middle East war shattered comfortable assumptions about regional security, the global economic climate remained hostile to many heavily-indebted and financially stressed governments, and to populations who have struggled to live with fallout from the pandemic and Ukraine war, which has included painful levels of inflation and costly currency volatility. African Energy offers a few pointers towards another difficult year ahead, as the IMF issues its annual appraisals of the global outlook and regional economic performance, and the Israel-Palestine conflict returns to centre stage in an increasingly polarised world.

As President William Samoei Ruto celebrated his first year in State House on 13 September, he has been able to bask in the global leadership opportunity offered by Kenya’s role in crafting an unprecedented African policy approach to the climate crisis ahead of COP28 in Dubai.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed triumphantly announced on 10 September that the fourth and final filling of the $4.2bn Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd) reservoir had been completed, raising the 74km3 reservoir’s water level to 625 metres; last year’s third filling had brought levels to 600 metres.