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The rules governing a new mechanism for the international trading of carbon emission reduction credits is due to be agreed at the Bonn Climate Change Conference, which runs from 6-16 June in Germany. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – which has so far proved of limited value to Africa – is set to be replaced by Article 6 of the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference’s Paris Agreement, which is intended to offer governments and project owners the potential to tap into a  new source of finance.

Modelling and number-crunching may not have the popular appeal of big new power stations or trans-continental interconnections, but they can be crucial to making markets work – and in Africa could open up new vistas for more efficient, more responsive and much larger electricity supply industries (ESIs).

President Muhammadu Buhari finally responded to popular concerns over security by replacing his military top team on 26 January. With the economy hobbled by low oil prices and coronavirus, he has allowed a little more economic flexibility, although it remains to be seen whether his costly defence of the naira’s inflated value will be replaced by the foreign exchange market unification favoured by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dabaiba may just have won another round in the unedifying slugfest for control over Libya’s government and resources. It seemed like a mistake when Dabaiba replaced National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla with former Qadhafi-era Central Bank of Libya governor Farhat Ben Gdara in late July, but the move seems to have bought the PM more time.

As President William Samoei Ruto celebrated his first year in State House on 13 September, he has been able to bask in the global leadership opportunity offered by Kenya’s role in crafting an unprecedented African policy approach to the climate crisis ahead of COP28 in Dubai.

Some pessimistic observers are heralding the end of the independent power producer (IPP) era, with the potential demise of actors and project models that have dominated private sector investment in electricity generation since the 1990s. With criticism of IPP costs providing grist to populist mills across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) – feeding into narratives of western ‘exploitation’ and anger over rising living costs – politicians have been calling for change, while developers are finding market conditions ever more challenging.

Less than a year from elections, numerous candidates are eyeing up the prize of taking over from President Muhammadu Buhari. 

Shortfalls in financial flows, failures to deal with debt and a lack of voice in global decision-making arenas are longstanding issues that African leaders are now seeking to address, with leaders from Ghana, Kenya and Zambia setting out a blueprint for reform covering everything from UN Security Council seats to the reallocation of $100bn-worth of assets held by the IMF. The extent to which these ambitious goals can be achieved could prove critical to Africa’s ability to finance and structure the energy transition on its terms – but the continent’s governments also need to accelerate their own reforms.

The purchase of BG Group by Royal Dutch Shell confirmed predictionsthat the falling oil price would trigger a spate of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the upstream industry. It points to a need for even the biggest players to build scale in developing their natural gas trade; for Shell, BG’s assets in Australia and the Atlantic Basin (Brazil) will help to secure a dominant position in Asian and other key markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The Department of Energy has released the draft Integrated Energy Planning (IEP) report for public consultation “as part of a process to formulate an integrated energy plan, which will outline a recommended energy roadmap for South Africa and guide investment decisions”. A period of public discussion will follow, as different stakeholder groups try to hammer out consensus on a sustainable long-term trajectory for the country (the IEP looks towards 2050). The IEP – with the expected new Integrated Resource Plan – will encompass Eskom’s plans for more coal-fired capacity, and also consolidate the so far successful effort to install major renewables capacity; it should also push forward the debate over new gas and nuclear infrastructure.

It hardly needs saying that a strong South Africa is vital if a more integrated, sustainable and equitable Africa is to emerge. The continent’s second-largest economy (after Nigeria re-evaluated its GDP) is still a magnet for business; big construction projects continue to rise across Johannesburg. Throughout the country, forward-thinking South Africans retain a sense of what is morally right and also a taste for innovation. But there are also many conservative elements and vested interests – starting within the ruling African National Congress (ANC) – that are holding back gains.

For too long only a fraction of proposed projects have seen the light of day, but while it is too early to say the African power industry has turned a corner, signs of progress were reflected at EnergyNet’s Africa Energy Forum (AEF) in Berlin on 26-28 June. Veteran southern African project financier Clive Ferreira observed that the African power sector continues to underperform significantly. Projects take too long to reach financial close, procurement processes are not transparent, and low tariffs make investment unattractive. Few could disagree with Ferreira’s conclusion that it is “difficult to make private power work under these circumstances”.

Initial responses to the UN Conference on Climate Change (COP21)’s 12 December Paris Agreement ranged from the euphoric, declaring a historic deal that could save the world, to the grimly pragmatic. Most participants declared the 13 days of negotiations and months of work that preceded them a success for France and the 197 governments that signed the 12-page pact to cut global greenhouse gas emissions. Running parallel to the global deal, COP21 put Africa at the forefront of an international negotiation, reflecting the continent’s perceived role as essential new driver of global growth and burgeoning flows of financing for renewable energy, improved access and efficiency from commitments confirmed in Paris.

Viewed from Harare, it is business as usual on all fronts: European Union and US sanctions continue to inconvenience President Robert Mugabe and key members of his regime; swathes of the population (including the estimated 4m Zimbabweans living abroad) despair of genuine political change that can unlock the country’s huge potential. However, after a 16 March referendum approved a new constitution, elections will follow by 29 June at the latest. Off the record, leaders of coalition partner the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) say their horizons are limited to winning extra seats and obtaining more ministerial posts in the next government. This recognises the effective hold that Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu PF), backed by a powerful securocrat elite, exerts over power.

As African Energy editor Thalia Griffiths leaves to explore new opportunities, colleagues asked for her take on developments after 23 years leading the publication. For all the tragedies like the current Ethiopian conflict, she sees real hope for a better future on a continent where, in many places, governance has improved and previously marginalised populations are becoming empowered to enact positive change.