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Despite calls from some governments for sub-Saharan Africa to use its natural gas resources and build more gas-to-power plants, it is hydroelectric power that will drive the biggest growth in electricity generation in the region over the next five years, according to analysis of African Energy Live Data’s project pipeline to 2027.

High inflation and a global energy crisis are forcing a rethink on how the world might make the transition from hydrocarbons to renewable energy. Until recently, rich-world policy-makers and think tanks had been pushing to electrify global energy demand as quickly as possible and in many parts of the world a de facto moratorium on new hydrocarbon projects had taken hold. But reports of the demise of gas have been greatly exaggerated.

African Union and European Union leaders met for the sixth EU-AU Summit in Brussels on 17-18 February, co-chaired by European Council president Charles Michel and AU’s Senegalese chairman President Macky Sall. It had been three years in the making – due to Covid and other delays – and, as with previous summits, there was talk of huge financial flows, boundless co-operation and commitments to a future of inclusive development.

In a recent conversation, an independent power producer (IPP) told African Energy that its southern African utility client has been paying for its electricity “more or less on time”. The problem was those payments were being made in a local currency that cannot be exchanged as “the central bank has no money”. The IPP could turn to international arbitration to try and enforce its contract terms, “but what’s the use of that,” the executive asks, “when there’s nothing to be had?”

Senegal is a relatively small economy with a reputation for competent, if sometimes flawed, governance of its limited resources. The prospect of an administration with a taste for joined-up government tapping recently identified offshore gas resources, and attracting investment in its abundant solar and wind resources, suggests that President Macky Sall’s Plan Sénégal Emergent strategy to achieve emerging market status by 2035 is not overblown.

US President Barack Obama was expected to make headline-grabbing announcements on the Tanzanian phase of his first extended trip to Africa, which started on 26 June. Of more long-term consequence is the great debate that rumbles on over how Tanzania should use its offshore reserves, now estimated at 150tcf of natural gas. International oil companies (IOCs), other potential investors and their advisers are expressing great frustration at the slow pace of decision-making, while Tanzanian policymakers say more time is needed to make momentous decisions for the economy and society.

The incomplete and low-key bulletin announcing the selection of 17 new power plants for South Africa’s renewable energy independent power producer procurement (REIPPP) programme on 29 October demonstrated not only the government’s shifting energy focus, but also conflicts underlying the process itself. Recently appointed minister Dikobe Ben Martins comes with a reputation for implementation, and there is no doubt that the energy sector needs it. With delays at all three of Eskom’s new power plants – which are shut down for a safety inspection following the deaths of six contract workers at Ingula pumped storage plant – and nuclear, gas and cogeneration plans that are behind schedule, Martins’ efforts are likely to be directed away from the REIPPP in the short term.

The impact of coronavirus on construction and project completions was underlined by figures for Q1 2020 produced by African Energy Live Data and presented at a 6 July Africa Investment Exchange (AIX) webinar on Africa power negotiations. This showed that only 240MW of net installed capacity was added in Q1 2020 (as a total of 438MW was installed but several big rental contracts ended). If this performance continued across the year, there would be a historic low in the installation of new generation capacity.

South Africa needs coal as a major employer as well as an indispensable source of baseload, while Kenya’s leadership seems committed to installing 1.05GW at Lamu, and other projects are being developed from Morocco to Madagascar. Coal remains a key element in many countries’ energy mix, while generating levels of controversy only exceeded by nuclear as the world transitions to an eventual post-carbon economy. Thus probably the feistiest session at this year’s Africa Energy Forum debated the future of coal.

Société Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du Gaz (Steg) has launched an international tender for the construction of a gas-fired power plant in Mornaguia in the northern governorate of Manouba, near Tunis. Bids for the project, which should comprise two industrial turbines with a gross capacity totalling 550-660MW at ISO baseload conditions, are due by 8 March. The power plant should be commissioned before the summer of 2020, according to the tender notice issued on 16 January. Steg seeks to sign a separate maintenance contract at the same time for 12 years from the expiry of the guarantee period of the equipment and infrastructure.

Prime minister-designate Habib Essid initiated fresh consultations with political parties on 27 January after initial soundings suggested the Assemblée des Représentants du Peuple (ARP) would not approve his proposed cabinet. Given the now well-established tradition of political dialogue between opposing political forces, this is not expected to long delay the formation of a fully constitutional and democratically legitimate government, which will end the transition started by the ousting of President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali four years ago. Against this massive achievement, huge challenges also confront the nation, not least the deteriorating instability in Libya and Tunisia’s own great economic problems.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s in-tray would terrify almost any political leader. He will watch the US election results with special interest after President Donald Trump signalled his frustration over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam by observing that Egypt would “end up blowing up the dam and… they have to do something”. Trump blamed Ethiopia for failed negotiations chaired by the United States earlier this year.

Efforts to mitigate climate change, while electricity supply industries, transport networks and other big consumers of energy are put on a more sustainable, less carbon-intense footing, will rise sharply up the global agenda in 2021, ahead of the next big round of climate talks to be held on 1-12 November in Glasgow. This is likely to involve a rush into green bonds, new project financing and other instruments that could significantly increase the pace of Africa’s shift into a more sustainable energy future.

Politics runs through even the most technical questions in a Republic of South Africa (RSA) ruled for nearly three decades by the African National Congress (ANC). Power struggles and influence-broking within the party have a direct impact on the implementation of policy. Along with data and project updates, African Energy’s new 160-page South Africa Power Report 2021/22 highlights the need for President Cyril Ramaphosa to implement reforms to the electricity supply industry (ESI) and other key sectors, in the face of opposition from deeply-rooted ideological and factional rivals.

The global energy transition is having profound impacts on natural resource producers, from the oil majors who are morphing into energy providers, to mining companies whose priorities are shifting as electric vehicles (EVs), battery storage and other new technologies take hold, and African governments and non-state actors who might profit from these changes but could also find themselves embroiled in new resource wars.