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The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission said international oil companies will be pressed to supply the privately-owned Dangote refinery, rather than just focusing on the export market.

Yet another grid collapse in early June underscored the perilous state of Nigeria’s electricity supply industry, but the 2023 Electricity Act, the recent creation of an unbundled independent system operator and other reforms from President Tinubu’s government may augur for better days ahead, writes Marc Howard.

Nigeria Stock Exchange (NGX)-listed conglomerate Transcorp Group’s two generating company subsidiaries already provide some 20% of Nigeria’s grid capacity. Now one of them, Transafam Power, is looking to increase output by 35% at many of its units while the other, Transcorp Power, is eyeing up a possible utility-scale solar plant.

A major source of natural gas for South Africa could be constrained as soon as 2025, with declining reserves at Mozambique’s Pande and Temane fields potentially leading to supply shortages. South Africa will need to secure new sources of feedstock if it is to develop the gas-to-power projects that many see as essential to provide baseload for the renewable energy sector that African Energy Live Data shows is gaining momentum.

There are signs of progress on two multi-billion dollar asset sales to local players by international majors which, coupled with sector reforms unveiled in March and a new licensing round launched in late April, may give rise to guarded optimism in the upstream sector, despite perennial issues around security and theft, writes James Gavin.

Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery is gradually ramping up its operations, with diesel supplies to the local market starting in March and exports beginning the following month. However, there have been more reports of teething troubles, with one crude cargo said to have been held offshore for a month over a payment dispute.

Savannah Energy has signed share purchase agreements (SPAs) with Sinopec and its local partner Jagal to acquire the 49% remaining interest in Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Nigeria Ltd (Sipec). Sipec’s principal asset is a 49% non-operated stake in the Stubb Creek oil and gas field in Akwa Ibom state.

Climate Fund Managers and Microsoft’s Climate Innovation Fund have invested $18m in UK-based Konexa to finance the launch of its renewable energy trading platform, with Nigerian Breweries the first customer. Konexa initially plans to wheel power across the national grid to two Nigerian Breweries’ facilities.

A planned $187m financing deal between London AIM-listed San Leon Energy and Tri Ri Asset Management has foundered, with the New York-based finance house blaming regulatory and compliance problems.

Commissioning of Geometric’s 141MW Aba gas-to-power plant adds sorely-needed on-grid capacity.  Selling to its own ringfenced distribution network, Aba also points to a potential new model of vertical integration. Meanwhile, the Tinubu government’s bold macro reforms have contributed to a significant economic crisis. It is nonetheless pushing on with efforts to repay $2.16bn owed to IPPs, although some question where the money will come from, write Leonard Lawal in Lagos and Marc Howard.

The economic logic of the subsidy cuts, devaluation and other reforms enacted after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took over on Aso Rock in mid-2023 was clear: the fuel subsidy alone was costing some $10bn/yr, risking state insolvency. But the consequences of Tinubu’s reforms have caused immense difficulties for a majority of Nigeria's estimated 226m population, as the price of staples soars.

French energy major TotalEnergies plans to add 14,000 b/d of condensate output by mid-2024 and up to 4 mcm/d of gas by 2028 from the south-eastern Nigerian field.

Shell is selling Nigerian subsidiary SPDC, with the onshore and shallow-water operator going to a consortium of local companies allied to industry veteran Samuel Dossou-Aworet for a sum of up to $2.4bn the supermajor is helping to fund. While Shell is retaining some other valuable Nigerian assets, it adds to a trend of international majors exiting all but their big deep-water oil and gas plays, following recent deals by ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies and Eni. African Energy analyses several aspects of a complex deal.

Shell’s creation in 1907, as a rival to American behemoth Standard Oil, produced an Anglo-Dutch company looking for global reach. Its presence in Nigeria dates back to 1936, when Shell D’Arcy was established, which was followed by a joint venture with another major, BP’s precursor company.

Disbursement of the first tranche of Afreximbank’s $3.3bn crude-for-finance deal will help to ease Abuja’s immediate financial difficulties, as the Tinubu administration needs all the help it can get to alleviate a cost of living crisis that threatens to alienate the president’s support base and derail essential reforms.