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With further progress in its electricity privatisation, increased food production due to investment in agriculture, and capital markets responding favourably to banks and bonds, it is easy to be drawn into the bubble of optimism that has built up around the Nigerian economy and its prospects. Away from the conflict zones of the north and Niger Delta, real progress has been made, but for every bit of positive newsflow there is a reality check, such as a new report from the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) which examines illegal oil exports – a still little understood cog in the machine of money and power-broking that defines public life in Nigeria.

With all the talk about leapfrogging the grid, it is surprising how little the possible implications have filtered through to the debate about tariffs. The Africa Investment Exchange: Power and Renewables conference in London on 15-16 November saw a lively discussion about potential grid ‘disruptors’, in particular low-cost, small-scale renewable power sold directly to consumers. The technology has huge potential to provide clean power to households and industry at a fraction of the cost of the grid.

The global campaign to provide vulnerable and marginalised communities with sustainable and affordable energy has gained considerable momentum in the past decade. The Africa-EU Energy Partnership’s target of giving electricity access to 100m more Africans by 2020, set in 2010, was exceeded by mid-decade. The United Nations’ Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) initiative should achieve its target of pulling 1bn people worldwide out of energy poverty by 2030; some 500m of these people live in sub-Saharan Africa.

With tougher anti-bribery legislation in place in the US and UK, local partners have been identified as a key vulnerability. Foreign companies need them to help them navigate the local business environment, especially if it is government policy to develop local content.

The much-anticipated partial float of the naira, introduced from 20 June, reflected a concession by President Muhammadu Buhari, who had resisted devaluation as he did during his first stint as president in the 1980s. Buhari was forced by deteriorating economic conditions and declining confidence to listen to markets. African Energy hears that concerns over the naira and other issues have led to the World Bank Group, a key guarantor of the liberalised generation and distribution system, making quiet threats to stop guarantees.

Whoever emerges from the 7 December election that pits President John Dramani Mahama against New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate Nana Akufo-Addo will have to confront the build up of uncomfortable levels of external debt, poorly performing state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and other weaknesses that undermine Ghana’s performance.In meetings with bankers and investors, officials routinely recommit to the reform agenda endorsed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which on 28 September approved its third review of Ghana’s Extended Credit Facility, enabling a much-needed disbursement of about $116.2m.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) announced on 29 June that South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance (MoEF) and the Export-Import Bank of Korea had signed an agreement to provide $600m to co-finance energy projects in Africa. It adds to the glut of funds targeting the African power sector, but oversupply of donor money – or undersupply of projects – is driving interest rates down and causing concern amongst financiers.

The proliferation of coups d’état across West Africa and the wider region over the past 18 months points to the return of chronic instability to one of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable (not least to climate change) regions. Many parts of the post-colonial continent, and especially its emerging West African nations, were defined by the speedy demise of civilian government as military rulers took over in the 1960s.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, issued at the end of January, underlines China’s importance both globally and for an African continent where it has made considerable efforts to build political relations and infrastructure, in order to secure resources vital to its domestic growth.

African Union and European Union leaders met for the sixth EU-AU Summit in Brussels on 17-18 February, co-chaired by European Council president Charles Michel and AU’s Senegalese chairman President Macky Sall. It had been three years in the making – due to Covid and other delays – and, as with previous summits, there was talk of huge financial flows, boundless co-operation and commitments to a future of inclusive development.

The agreement for Senegal to become only the second African economy to secure a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) has the potential to salvage the climate financing framework’s credibility, which appeared to be flatlining.

In a recent conversation, an independent power producer (IPP) told African Energy that its southern African utility client has been paying for its electricity “more or less on time”. The problem was those payments were being made in a local currency that cannot be exchanged as “the central bank has no money”. The IPP could turn to international arbitration to try and enforce its contract terms, “but what’s the use of that,” the executive asks, “when there’s nothing to be had?”

Côte d’Ivoire’s three times oversubscribed $2.6bn dollar Eurobond issue underlines President Alassane Dramane Ouattara’s reputation for prudent economic management – a status that will add to pressures from supporters for ‘ADO’ to stand for a controversial fourth term – and offers some hope for under-pressure African borrowers who could benefit from renewed access to international capital markets and the relatively attractive interest rates CdI has secured.

The annual Africa Energy Forum (AEF) had something for all of its 2,000 delegates. It encouraged female entrepreneurs towards greater participation at all levels of the industry, heard the perennial calls for cost-reflective tariffs to help insolvent utilities balance their books and developers bring projects to fruition, and stimulated larger investors’ appetite for off-grid distributed solutions. The event, held in Copenhagen on 7-9 June, suggested chronic lack of access to sustainable energy could be overcome with the mobilisation of huge funding (much of which is available if conditions are right), innovative investment and technologies (both of which are emerging) and the enthusiastic participation of existing and new players.

Mainstream print and broadcast media are increasingly of the view – thereby making it the prevailing orthodoxy – that growth across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is creating a significant emerging market for the next decade.