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Free

The entry into Goma of rebel and Rwandan forces is a catastrophe for Democratic Republic of Congo and threatens a return to wider conflict in the Great Lakes region. International efforts have so far failed to secure peace in troubled eastern Congo – which will require difficult decisions and major efforts to curb Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s ambitions, overcome DRC President Félix Tshisekedi’s failings and restore trade in the region’s critical minerals to a legal footing.

DR Congo | Rwanda
Free

For Bola Tinubu, as for previous Nigerian presidents, one measure of success at overcoming the graft and mismanagement that have undermined the economy for decades will be his ability to halt systemic oil theft in the Niger Delta. Tinubu’s administration and military chiefs are setting drones and other technology to work, but whether they can overcome the usual vested interests to harness desperately needed higher revenue flows and investment remains to be seen.

Nigeria
Free

The ruling ‘Duo Diomaye/Sonko’ seems to hold all the cards needed to at least try to implement their ambitious Project Senegal 2050 agenda, after their Pastef party won some 130 of the 165 National Assembly seats in Senegal’s much-anticipated mid-November legislative election, writes Waly Dione Faye.

Senegal
Free

The widespread perception that Donald Trump’s incoming United States administration will create new winners and losers does not exclude Africa’s energy industries and the wider continental economy and society. But true to the president-elect’s ‘transactional’ approach, US policy in the next four years will mainly be geared to creating winners at home – and those governments and corporates who plan with America First in mind could survive the expected Trump rollercoaster better than others.

Subscriber

The ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) party and its candidate, Daniel Chapo, have been officially declared the landslide winners of Mozambique’s presidential and legislative polls by the Comissão Nacional de Eleições (CNE – National Elections Commission), after hotly contested and violent elections were held on 9 October. An already discredited electoral process was further undermined by the assassination of two opposition figures prior to the results being declared by the CNE. A volatile situation is adding to investor jitters that could make financing Mozambique’s long-stalled plans to become a significant LNG exporter much more difficult, while more political turbulence beckons.

Mozambique
Free

The Nigerian government needs an urgent boost after essential macroeconomic reform measures sparked huge public opposition. By placing President Bola Tinubu at the centre of plans to revive long stalled projects, Abuja can point to the potential for a better economic performance ahead – at least in the longer term – while opponents test the administration’s resilience with the threat of more short-term disorder.

Nigeria
Free

The nominally ‘independent candidate’ Abdelmajid Tebboune seems set for a second term when Algerians vote in the 7 September presidential election. He has promised accelerated investment in electricity and other infrastructure, a more responsive business environment and faster delivery of jobs and social services – with big new hydrocarbons deals to pay for it all.

Algeria
Free

The CNSP regime has triumphantly commemorated the anniversary of its ousting of President Bazoum. But the festivities merely distract from a worsening security situation that has seen major oil investor CNPC suspend work in the Agadem Rift Basin, part of a $7bn investment including a pipeline which remains idle over a dispute with Benin. Niger’s woes lay bare the folly of the chauvinistic politics advanced by the Sahel’s juntas, writes Marc Howard.

Niger
Free

Voters are going to the polls earlier than expected, on 7 September, with incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune as the ruling establishment’s candidate, having overcome some powerful décideur (decision-maker) factions’ doubts about his credentials to drive Algeria forwards in a second term. Able to pull the levers of presidential power, Tebboune will seek to present a record of solid first term achievement, although many of his electorate know that results have been mixed, at best, especially given the buffer of higher oil and gas prices his administration has enjoyed. Tebboune has much to prove.

Algeria
Free

The chances of long-awaited LNG schemes moving ahead have been bolstered by Rwanda’s expanded commitment to battling the northern Cabo Delgado province’s enduring Islamist insurgency on behalf of the Maputo government, a move very much in the interests of the international majors planning multi-billion dollar projects. Many other problems remain to be resolved as Mozambique prepares for President Nyusi to stand down in October – in an election where the ruling Frelimo party’s candidate will be Daniel Chapo, whose outsider status points to further splits in the ruling elite.

Mozambique | Rwanda
Free

African Energy’s investigation into National Oil Corporation (NOC)’s large budget and the failings at two of its most important upstream oil and gas projects shows how events at the national oil company holds significance far beyond the small number of oil majors and their partners who are directly involved. Understanding how Libya’s hydrocarbons sector is being run is a matter of vital concern to the Libyan people, whose futures are tied to its success or failure. The investigation should also be of prime interest to a wide range of African Energy subscribers, including those involved in renewable and thermal power or the trade in gas and liquid fuels. Sooner or later, resolving the problems that African Energy is exposing will require the involvement of businesses across the whole energy sector spectrum.

Free

A major source of natural gas for South Africa could be constrained as soon as 2025, with declining reserves at Mozambique’s Pande and Temane fields potentially leading to supply shortages. South Africa will need to secure new sources of feedstock if it is to develop the gas-to-power projects that many see as essential to provide baseload for the renewable energy sector that African Energy Live Data shows is gaining momentum.

Mozambique | Nigeria | Morocco | South Africa
Free

Publication of the 500th issue provides an opportunity to look back at a few triumphs and many missed opportunities in the industries African Energy has covered since it was launched in 1998. Industry and financial trends have evolved, and sometimes returned to haunt stakeholders years after they were thought to be history. One constant has been the huge increase in the continent’s population, which means the UN target of universal clean energy access is constantly pushed into the distance.

Free

The final COP28 communiqué included – for the first time – a commitment to eventually phase out fossil fuels, going beyond previous declarations that focused on coal. However, there are few signs that Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) members and their Opec+ allies, led by Russia, have any intention of allowing their core source of revenues to disappear anytime soon. So what can we learn from recent statements by oil producers – including Opec+’s quota commitments at a meeting on 30 November – and from leaks and comments made during COP28?

Angola | Nigeria | Libya | Congo Brazzaville | Algeria
Free

The agreement for Senegal to become only the second African economy to secure a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) has the potential to salvage the climate financing framework’s credibility, which appeared to be flatlining.

Senegal | Egypt | Nigeria | Morocco