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Competition among international powers over access to critical raw minerals was intense even before Russia’s President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But the conflict has focused minds even more sharply in the United States and European Union over the ground they have ceded to China in relation to rare earth minerals and other essential supplies.

The global energy transition is having profound impacts on natural resource producers, from the oil majors who are morphing into energy providers, to mining companies whose priorities are shifting as electric vehicles (EVs), battery storage and other new technologies take hold, and African governments and non-state actors who might profit from these changes but could also find themselves embroiled in new resource wars.

Publication of the 500th issue provides an opportunity to look back at a few triumphs and many missed opportunities in the industries African Energy has covered since it was launched in 1998. Industry and financial trends have evolved, and sometimes returned to haunt stakeholders years after they were thought to be history. One constant has been the huge increase in the continent’s population, which means the UN target of universal clean energy access is constantly pushed into the distance.

Democratic Republic of Congo catches the imagination of those who see its potential to drive Africa’s future through its mineral wealth, resourceful population and the Inga Falls hydroelectric resource. But grandiose visions tend to founder on rocky realities in this vast, extravagantly diverse country, where power politics and the global commodities price crash – which in early May forced the government to cut 2016 spending by some 22% – have deeply unsettled much of what remains of international business. In May, major investor Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Cobalt announced it was selling up.