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Free

The widespread perception that Donald Trump’s incoming United States administration will create new winners and losers does not exclude Africa’s energy industries and the wider continental economy and society. But true to the president-elect’s ‘transactional’ approach, US policy in the next four years will mainly be geared to creating winners at home – and those governments and corporates who plan with America First in mind could survive the expected Trump rollercoaster better than others.

Free

The power and water utility serving Morocco’s commercial capital has transferred from French private sector control and is now being run by the state-owned SRM C-S. The move underlines the extent to which African governments are looking for new management models for vital services and highlights how the private sector has failed to meet expectations in electricity distribution.

Morocco
Free

Reforms to the way multilateral financial institutions approach project finance could help overcome some of the most intractable barriers to the electrification of Africa, including fears of default and high project financing costs which drive away many potential investors. To be meaningful, changes need to be principled and generally applicable, while also anchored in the often-messy reality of doing business across the continent. African Energy is publishing the first in a series of white papers on how this problem might be solved in a way which recognises Africa’s needs and the capabilities of institutions, without introducing moral hazard.

Free

The nominally ‘independent candidate’ Abdelmajid Tebboune seems set for a second term when Algerians vote in the 7 September presidential election. He has promised accelerated investment in electricity and other infrastructure, a more responsive business environment and faster delivery of jobs and social services – with big new hydrocarbons deals to pay for it all.

Algeria
Free

With African electricity supply industries in a state of flux, everyone agrees the infrastructure needed for economic development can only come from the private sector, but the existing financial and commercial models are inadequate – and a desperate need for investment in transmission only makes this financing challenge harder. Some new thinking about how to crack these problems was presented at the African Energy Forum in Barcelona, but the boldest ideas require a leap of faith, writes John Hamilton*

Free

A lot of officials, developers and financiers are working very hard to bring electricity supply projects to market and into service, but persistent bottlenecks across the value chain still too often stall otherwise good projects, according to African Energy Live Data’s analysis of the deal flow. The completion of stalled projects, along with a roll-out of mini-grids and decentralised solutions, would lead poorer consumers further towards universal access, while giving wealthier urban populations and commercial clients improved services and more productive uses of energy.

Free

Voters are going to the polls earlier than expected, on 7 September, with incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune as the ruling establishment’s candidate, having overcome some powerful décideur (decision-maker) factions’ doubts about his credentials to drive Algeria forwards in a second term. Able to pull the levers of presidential power, Tebboune will seek to present a record of solid first term achievement, although many of his electorate know that results have been mixed, at best, especially given the buffer of higher oil and gas prices his administration has enjoyed. Tebboune has much to prove.

Algeria
Free

African Energy’s investigation into National Oil Corporation (NOC)’s large budget and the failings at two of its most important upstream oil and gas projects shows how events at the national oil company holds significance far beyond the small number of oil majors and their partners who are directly involved. Understanding how Libya’s hydrocarbons sector is being run is a matter of vital concern to the Libyan people, whose futures are tied to its success or failure. The investigation should also be of prime interest to a wide range of African Energy subscribers, including those involved in renewable and thermal power or the trade in gas and liquid fuels. Sooner or later, resolving the problems that African Energy is exposing will require the involvement of businesses across the whole energy sector spectrum.

Free

A major source of natural gas for South Africa could be constrained as soon as 2025, with declining reserves at Mozambique’s Pande and Temane fields potentially leading to supply shortages. South Africa will need to secure new sources of feedstock if it is to develop the gas-to-power projects that many see as essential to provide baseload for the renewable energy sector that African Energy Live Data shows is gaining momentum.

Mozambique | Nigeria | Morocco | South Africa
Free

Political uncertainty grips South Africa ahead of national and provincial elections on 29 May, with opinion polls suggesting the ruling African National Congress could lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years, raising the possibility of a coalition government and the prospect of a surge in ‘pork barrel’ politics.

South Africa
Free

Shortfalls in financial flows, failures to deal with debt and a lack of voice in global decision-making arenas are longstanding issues that African leaders are now seeking to address, with leaders from Ghana, Kenya and Zambia setting out a blueprint for reform covering everything from UN Security Council seats to the reallocation of $100bn-worth of assets held by the IMF. The extent to which these ambitious goals can be achieved could prove critical to Africa’s ability to finance and structure the energy transition on its terms – but the continent’s governments also need to accelerate their own reforms.

Kenya | Ghana | Zambia
Free

Publication of the 500th issue provides an opportunity to look back at a few triumphs and many missed opportunities in the industries African Energy has covered since it was launched in 1998. Industry and financial trends have evolved, and sometimes returned to haunt stakeholders years after they were thought to be history. One constant has been the huge increase in the continent’s population, which means the UN target of universal clean energy access is constantly pushed into the distance.

Free

African electricity markets are on the threshold of genuine reform in 2024, even if policy-makers’ grandest ambitions are destined to meet with disappointment. African Energy has examined the first data that has emerged from the third development phase of the African Union’s Continental Master Plan and found much to applaud.

Free

In a recent conversation, an independent power producer (IPP) told African Energy that its southern African utility client has been paying for its electricity “more or less on time”. The problem was those payments were being made in a local currency that cannot be exchanged as “the central bank has no money”. The IPP could turn to international arbitration to try and enforce its contract terms, “but what’s the use of that,” the executive asks, “when there’s nothing to be had?”

Kenya | Nigeria
Free

Some pessimistic observers are heralding the end of the independent power producer (IPP) era, with the potential demise of actors and project models that have dominated private sector investment in electricity generation since the 1990s. With criticism of IPP costs providing grist to populist mills across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) – feeding into narratives of western ‘exploitation’ and anger over rising living costs – politicians have been calling for change, while developers are finding market conditions ever more challenging.