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With crude now flowing through the 1,982km Niger-Benin Export Pipeline, a fivefold increase in oil production beckons for Niger, amid signs that Niamey is emerging from post-coup isolation and has mended ties with Ecowas and the US – a critical factor in developing the greenfield uranium mine at Dasa.

The strongmen in charge of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger plan to quit the regional Ecowas bloc, as Russia further enhances its military/business relationship with the Sahel troika and Central African Republic. While Niger believes its oil production could increase fivefold as its export pipeline to Benin starts up, and the Sahel states made significant progress in developing solar generation capacity in 2023, shifting political sands mean the largely western-funded PV boom is unlikely to be repeated, and the focus of China and others on resources plays leaves a big gap in international support for other sectors, writes Marc Howard.

Nigerien oil production could increase fivefold as a result of the Niger-Benin Export Pipeline, which is expected soon to ship its first cargo from the Sèmè-Kraké terminal. With traders competing to land marketing rights for Niamey’s share of up to 90,000 b/d of crude supply, the revenues will significantly aid the military regime, whose hold on the government has consolidated as General Abdourahamane Tiani’s junta has sought to cement ties with China and others.

Miners have intensified uranium extraction and prospecting in Africa over the past two years as market prices surged after a decade of post-Fukushima lows.

Renewed momentum for nuclear energy was underlined by a COP28 climate summit pledge to triple global capacity by 2050 – although huge capital costs pose daunting obstacles to the several African countries who are looking at potential atomic power developments. A new generation of small reactors, while not yet commercially viable, may offer a solution for some to add significant capacity, writes Marc Howard.

Global Atomic Corporation (GAC), developer of the greenfield Dasa uranium mine, said on 10 November the United States government had “expressed support for project financing to proceed”.

The 1,982km Niger-Benin export pipeline (NBEP) has been nominally commissioned by Niger’s Prime Minister Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, although in reality it will be some months before any crude oil is exported along the route.

Production is set to increase in Africa’s two main uranium producers, Niger and Namibia, as market prices surge after a decade in the doldrums. The extra output comes largely from recommissioned mines, with the greenfield Dasa project facing delays following Niger’s coup.

Sorely-needed investments in the power, mining and energy sectors have been hampered by the putsch in July. With the government heavily dependent on foreign funding, Niamey’s new prime minister will likely struggle to balance the books as sanctions bite, writes Marc Howard.

The prospect of military intervention by other countries in the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to reverse Niger’s July coup seems to be receding. The bloc’s commissioner for political affairs, peace and security Abdel-Fatau Musah said on 6 September it had set no deadline for military action and was emphasising diplomacy.

The coup d’état in Niger appears to be undermining oil and gas sector ambitions in neighbouring Benin, with London Stock Exchange-listed independent Zenith Energy citing regional political instability as a reason for pulling out of talks for a production-sharing contract to resume output from Block 1 and potential delays anticipated to the $7bn Niger-Benin export pipeline (NBEP), which was due to be completed this year.

Work at the 130MW Kandadji hydroelectric power (HEP) project has been halted, after developer China Gezhouba Group Company (CGGC) declared force majeure on 7 August following the 26 July military takeover of the country.

TSX-listed Global Atomic Corporation has told the market that progress at its Dasa uranium mine may be delayed up to a year by Niger’s 26 July coup d’état.

Russia has strongly backed the anti-western, populist regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso through its mercenary Wagner Group, which has also established itself as a force in Central African Republic (CAR) and Sudan.

Strategically important Niger is at a crossroads after the coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, with events quickly deteriorating to the extent that Ecowas has threatened force to reinstate democratic rule, while France and the US are anxious to ensure their key regional military base doesn’t follow other Sahel states by falling into the Russian camp, writes Marc Howard.