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The scale of the green hydrogen (GH2) opportunity emerging in North Africa is potentially transformative for the region. However, to date just one tiny pilot project is up and running and there is still no firm evidence that giga-scale projects can be made bankable. If the prospect is a mirage, it is one that has taken in a swathe of respected global investors. With an ever-increasing amount riding on the outcome, failure will be a disaster, but success could revolutionise the fortunes of the region, writes John Hamilton.

Egypt has the most prospective portfolio of green hydrogen development prospects anywhere in Africa. The multi-billion-dollar projects for which major global investors have signed framework agreements could be a lifeline for the heavily indebted country but will take years to come to fruition. However, two much smaller projects developed by Norway’s Scatec have secured firm offtake commitments, offering another way forward.

Egypt Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly secured a $5bn pledge from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) in mid-September, in what Egyptian authorities described as a “first phase” of investment. The plunging value of the Egyptian pound over the past few years has made deals significantly more attractive to Gulf investors and President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s regime needs the financial support as much as ever.

UAE-based Masdar and its local partner Infinity Power have signed a power purchase agreement with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company for electricity from the planned onshore wind farm.

British energy major BP has signed a joint development agreement with a consortium of Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) and the local Hassan Allam Utilities and Infinity Power to explore the potential for a large, multi-phase green hydrogen (GH2) project in Egypt.

Ethiopia is moving ahead with the fifth filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd), according to Egyptian officials who cited evidence from satellite imagery.

The next phase of Egypt’s renewable energy development will stretch over several years, with financial close on the most ambitious projects not expected before 2026. If successful, Cairo could establish a pipeline of projects with several gigawatts of wind generation capacity being added every year into the next decade.

President El Sisi’s cabinet reshuffle is the most significant reshaping of the energy sector’s management in nearly a decade, bringing new ministers to the oil and gas and electricity portfolios, who face daunting challenges as Egypt struggles to meet its ambitions for energy self-sufficiency and to become a regional gas and renewable power hub, writes John Hamilton.

The New and Renewable Energy Authority has signed a trio of land agreements in a strategic area the Egyptian government hopes will become one of the world’s largest zones of wind output with close to 30GW of installed production.

SDX Energy will receive $6.6m for its stakes in West Gharib blocks G and H. A deal to sell its other Egyptian asset, South Disouq, is still the subject of negotiations. The Egypt exit will allow the London AIM-listed firm to focus on its operations in Morocco.

Just over a year after Infinity Power acquired Lekela Power to create the largest renewable energy company in Africa, the Cairo-based developer is close to signing a power purchase agreement for a proposed 200MW wind plant close to Lekela’s existing 250MW West Bakr wind farm. There are also plans to expand Lekela’s Taiba N’Diaye wind plant in Senegal and to compete for projects in South Africa.

Construction of the colossal Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd) is slated to be completed this year, marking the end of one of the continent’s largest and longest-running infrastructure projects. However, it has come at the cost of heightened animosity with Egypt and Sudan.

Prospects are improving for the introduction of carbon capture and storage into gas production projects as the Egyptian authorities have shifted to a more positive stance on CCS technology, encouraged by their financial backers in the Gulf.

Slow progress at some of sub-Saharan Africa’s most high-profile LNG developments come as exporters from other parts of the world race to sign new long-term deals with buyers from Asia and Europe. The risk for African producers is that they could miss out on lucrative opportunities, costing governments large amounts in lost foreign earnings, writes Marc Howard*.

Algeria is squeezing whatever gas it can out of the system for export and Morocco is looking at different options for its smaller reserves, but Libya and Egypt face bigger challenges still, with the bare minimum export LNG leaving Egyptian terminals this year.