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Nigeria Power Report 2021/22


06 Aug 2021

Nigeria's installed capacity will reach 18.3GW by 2025 but with available generation likely to be constrained to just 7.6GW, supply will continue to lag far behind demand, new research by African Energy shows

Nigeria Power Report 2021/22 shows that the challenges facing the power sector are likely to continue in the medium-term. The lack of gas supply, insufficient T&D infrastructure, and sector illiquidity will contribute to an environment where new IPPs are unlikely to emerge in the coming years. However, after many false dawns the prospect of long-promised recovery may be in sight.

Government policies, supported by the World Bank, look to resolve some of the key issues holding the sector back. Their success will lead to improvements in transmission and distribution – both financial and infrastructural – while the recent passing of the Petroleum Industry Bill will provide much needed clarity for the sector and could unlock new gas supply to the domestic market, as will the construction of major gas pipeline projects. Combined, these may break down some of the major barriers for new IPPs.

In the near term, opportunities for private participation are emerging beyond new build generation. Plans are afoot to privatise the Transmission Company of Nigeria, while state-owned National Integrated Power Projects are being retendered after an unsuccessful privatisation attempt several years ago.

Analysis is underpinned and informed by independent power generation forecasts based on the actual project development pipeline, with data drawn from African Energy Live Data – our proprietary database of more than 6,700 power projects and plant.

Request a PDF factsheet covering key findings for supply and demand and distribution challenges

Contents
  1. Executive summary
  2. Risk management report
  3. Political risk
  4. Macroeconomic overview
  5. ESI Overview
  6. Power sector policy
  7. Regulation and procurement
  8. Oil, gas and other resources
  9. Demand and supply outlook
  10. Transmission and distribution
  11. Off-grid
  12. Commercial and industrial market
  13. Competitive landscape
  14. Installed capacity data (including breakdowns by fuel, technology, ownership, and for individual states)
  15. Power general projects (operating, under construction, in development)

Watch the report's lead authors discuss Nigeria

Head of consultancy David Slater was joined by research analysts Ajay Ubhi and Marc Howard and African Energy founder Jon Marks for a discussion of the research undertaken for the report and the outlook for Nigeria's electricity supply industry.

How the report can support your work

Nigeria Power Report 2021/22 examines the progress and impact of the government’s reform programme alongside the wider challenges facing the electricity supply industry as it tries to improve electricity supply.

  • Independent supply and demand outlook – Installed capacity is woefully insufficient to meet demand and hampered by numerous constraints. The report includes African Energy’s five-year supply and demand forecast analysing installed generation capacity, available generation, fuel supply and network constraints.
     
  • T&D opportunities – The government continues its privatisation drive with plans to sell Nigeria’s transmission entity and the proposed franchising of distribution. The report examines the impact of these moves, the role of mini-grids, and what possible opportunities may arise for T&D participants.
     
  • Gas supply will be crucial – Gas will continue to fuel Nigeria’s power sector for many years to come while oil continues to play a key role in the country’s economy. The report includes a detailed assessment of the Petroleum Industry Bill and a forward-looking projection of gas availability for the power sector.
     
  • Off-grid growth opportunities – the use of backup diesel generators is widespread, but opportunities for renewables solutions are growing. The report examines the regulations for off-grid generation and distribution and the emerging opportunities for entering this growing sub-sector.
     
  • Political and economic risk – With President Buhari reaching the mid-way point of his final term and the economy reeling from the impacts of Covid-19 and the fall in oil prices from their early 2010s peak, the report explores the political dynamics influencing the future of Nigeria’s government and questions whether the bleak economic picture will improve in the coming years.

Nigeria Power Report 2021/22

Published:

Price: £2,995

Format: PDF

Pages: 201

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