Issue 408 - 30 Jan 2020
The warlord Khalifa Haftar’s comprehensive blockade of oil export terminals in eastern and western Libya is an attempt to force his drawn-out siege of Tripoli into an endgame. His price for lifting the blockade is the replacement of both National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman Mustafa Sanalla and Central Bank of Libya (CBL) governor Sadiq Al-Kabir. He also wants a greater share of oil revenues. Acceding to these demands would hand Haftar control of the two institutions that control the country’s resources and its money. It would confirm his legitimacy and represent the capitulation of the Government of National Accord (GNA). This shift to economic blackmail can be interpreted as a sign of weakness as it confirms the failure of military and political strategies for attaining victory. However, muted international condemnation and growing fatalism among Libya’s oppressed and war-weary people mean the gambit may well succeed.
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