Data, modelling, mapping and insights

In 2023, we provided a prospective investor in a renewable power project located in a SAPP country with a report on the relevant regulatory environment, access to markets and electricity market supply and demand dynamics.

The report covered both the home country of the project and the surrounding Southern African region. The objective was to help the client understand the market potential and the future electricity price that the generation project in question could achieve.

Our project team provided expert insight into market operations, including constraints both in the home country and in the wider SAPP market, and how to overcome these constraints.

• Analysis of current and future power supply was derived from proprietary project level data from our African Energy Live Data platform. This produced a five-year installed power generation capacity outlook plus a high-level snapshot and indication of demand.
• A market mapping exercise, assessed the routes to market in relation to the physical infrastructure in place, including the status of domestic and regional transmission infrastructure and an assessment of the ability of the network to carry power cross-border and within SAPP’s market.
• We worked with our Africa-based modelling partners to deliver a merit order and 25-year price curves with a focus on power being sold in SAPP. These were presented as a trio of scenarios.

To find out how we can deliver similar value to your business please contact Ajay Ubhi.

For an experienced investor in African power markets, we provided an assessment of Morocco’s renewable energy market.  This included commentary and analysis of recent legislative changes and expected regulatory reforms.

A key part of the deliverables was an assessment on whether new regulations would be fully implemented and over what timescale, and whether implementation would stimulate the commercial and industrial (C&I) and IPP wheeling markets.

• Working with our Casablanca-based associate we added substantial on-the-ground research to our knowledge of existing and planned power projects derived from African Energy Live Data.
• Projects were characterised and segmented into auto-production, and wheeling (law 13-09) projects. 
• We benchmarked the existing pipeline against official targets and identified likely commercial PPA counter-parties where possible. This allowed us to provide estimates on the remaining potential of the HV offtake market.
• We analysed publicly available data from a variety of sources alongside a detailed examination of prospects in the main industrial sectors to provide an empirical baseline power demand forecast.
• A further level of analysis identified the most important sectors for C&I offtake. This included a geodata mapping exercise setting out the location of major power offtakers in more than 10 industrial sectors, with detailed analysis of the outlook for each sector including major potential offtakers.
• A detailed geodata mapping exercise described the main transmission network bottlenecks and the potential development of schemes to resolve this problem with the aim of providing a risk management framework for a decision on project location.

To find out how we can deliver similar value to your business please contact Ajay Ubhi.

Retained by a mining company with a major project in DR Congo, we carried out a detailed overview of potential electricity supply options into eastern DR Congo from the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and a model for future supply potential over the next ten years.

This project included an extensive analysis of transmission capacities and transfers throughout the SAPP.

To find out how we can deliver similar value to your business please contact Ajay Ubhi.