Algeria's Energy Future was launched at a half-day round-table seminar at Chatham House, London, on Wednesday 6 April.
The report was presented at the seminar by its lead authors, Jon Marks and John Hamilton, and critically assessed by Algerian and international experts. Read more
The African Energy Atlas has established itself as an indispensable resource for energy industry professionals.
The 2011 edition features more than 45 maps and charts drawn with expert care by journalist cartographer David Burles. Read more
Briefings and Reports 2
AfricaHardball is an executive dialogue that brings together policy-makers, industry leaders and analysts to discuss the key political issues affecting African markets in frank and open terms.
The next AfricaHardball roundtable will be held on 1 December in London, focusing on North Africa Read more
Briefings and Reports 3
A detailed and frank analysis of Libya’s energy sector
Published in July 2010, Libya's Energy Future provides authoritative, independently sourced analysis of Libya’s energy sector policy and history, examines the country’s governance and financial record and assesses the potential for international partners to do business with its institutions and interest groups.
On the page below you will find a selection of articles from the African Energy archive. All items preceded by a padlock symbol require a subscription.
Libya is sliding into an attritional battle for resources in which power generation and water supply are vulnerable. Domestic gas is still flowing, but much of Libya’s power is being generated by fuel oil or diesel, including most of the supply in Tripoli.
Qadhafi, Free Libya forces fight to a standstill over oil as well as territory
Both sides are seeking to keep their domestic markets supplied and structure oil deals as they seek to gain a definitive advantage in the Libyan conflict’s new, internationalised phase, write John Hamilton and Jon Marks Issue 206, 1 April 2011.more
On the evening of Tuesday 16 March, the citizens of Benghazi were coming to terms with the fact that the strategic town of Ajdabiya had fallen to Colonel Muammar Qadhafi’s forces, leaving their volunteer army and the undefended eastern capital itself at the mercy of a better equipped and trained army – known for its ruthlessness. CbI’s Jon Marks was among the majority of foreigners who pulled out of Benghazi that night, heading for Tobruk and then the Egyptian border.
The United Nations approval of military involvement in Libya, and its imposition of sanctions on National Oil Corporation (NOC) and other institutions, substantially changes the balance of Libya’s internal conflict. Colonel Muammar Qadhafi has publicly and brutally re-acquired the pariah status that he earned throughout much of the 1980s and 1990s.
The 18 March resolution will not have an immediate impact on the oil sector as no oil was being exported from Libya anyway, but it entirely changes the future dynamic.
Realisation of the seriousness of the situation in revolutionary Benghazi only struck home in the late afternoon of 15 March with conflicting reports about the possible fall of Ajdabiya. On the morning of 16 March reports came in of a government bombardment at the eastern capital’s airport and other strategic locations. As African Energy went to press, a majority of foreigners had left for the border with Egypt.
Colonel Muammar Qadhafi met the ambassadors of Russia, China and India on 13 March, inviting oil companies from their countries to invest in Libya. This a clear threat that companies from countries backing the rebellion will be punished if he regains control.
Since the anti-Qadhafi rebellion sparked off in mid-February, it has been hard to tell what oil is being exported from Libya and under what circumstances. The most recent estimate from the International Energy Agency is that exports have halted, writes John Hamilton
Libyans look to speedy transition following Qadhafi’s last stand
Post-Qadhafi Libya is forming itself even before the old dictator departs, with a leadership that can avoid the country splitting up, while new institutions are created and Libyans get back to work. Much of the oil industry is shut in but all sides are anxious to turn on the taps, provided a full civil war can be avoided, write Jon Marks and John Hamilton Issue 204, 4 March 2011. more
Oil output: Taps are turned off, some cargoes leave
Crude output all but ceased in the last week of February as the battle for Libya reached oil fields and export terminals. In a rambling 24 February call to national television, Muammar Qadhafi said oil may have already stopped flowing.
Crisis - dealing with the Qadhafis leaves difficult legacy for range of players
The international companies that worked so hard to obtain major contracts from the Libyan regime, and their diplomatic backers and bankers, now find themselves confronted with an awkward situation. The unspoken rule of many transactions in recent years has been to find a member of the Qadhafi family – or more usually their representatives – to sponsor a deal through the Jamahiriya (State of the Masses) bureaucracy and power elite.
As senior officials and military officers desert the regime in ever greater numbers, Colonel Muammar Qadhafi’s deliberately chaotic labyrinth of rival governmental and security institutions is collapsing. Understanding how he played off competing factions within the regime against each other to prevent any alternative power structure from emerging is fundamental to assessing how this crisis could end and what will follow, writes John Hamilton
Analysis from CbI, African Energy's parent company, 25 February 2011. Download the full bulletin
Libya crisis: Big oil under pressure as Qadhafi’s other children finally have their say
International oil companies and Libya’s other commercial partners have been caught out by the extent of popular protest that has placed the regime in mortal peril. Even if the Brother Leader survives, Libya will be a very different place in which to do business. If Muammar Qadhafi falls, the shape of a successor regime is very unclear, given the dominance of the Colonel and his idiosyncratic form of government over the past 41 years. John Hamilton and Jon Marks take stock as the crisis unfolds.
Hamburg-based RWE Dea has defied the trend of negative sentiment in relations between international companies and Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC). It has agreed to convert its existing EPSA-3 concessions into the standard EPSA-4 format and is awaiting government approval for planned developments in the Sirte Basin.
BP expects to start drilling offshore Libya next year as soon as its freshly commissioned drilling ship Pride Deep Ocean Ascension is ready. The vessel, fitted with dynamic positioning technology, is being tested in the Gulf of Mexico. It rejected a previously commissioned rig for technical reasons (AE 196/1).
Issue 200, 17 December 2010.Full story
NOC loses out in gas pricing debate
The decision to agree a domestic gas price linked to the Zeebrugge hub spot price, reported by African Energy in late October, appears to be a setback for National Oil Corporation chairman Shukri Ghanem (AE 196/19). Issue 198, 19 November 2010. more
New UK ministers focus on North Africa
London has enjoyed close security co-operation with Algiers and Tripoli for some time, but the relationship is now more overt and ministerial attention more focused Issue 198, 19 November 2010. more
Upstream update: developments on hold, explorers pulling out, production may fall
Libya has ambitious plans to increase production, but soundings of IOCs and local operators suggest that output may actually fall as NOC’s poor relationship with joint venture partners blocks vital developments in producing fields. Many companies who entered in 2005 have formally relinquished exploration areas and more are expected to pull out of Libya by year-end, writes John Hamilton in Vienna Issue 197, 5 November 2010.more
BP rejects rig used by Exxon
BP has rejected Noble Group’s Homer Ferrington rig, which was due to start drilling a well offshore Libya this year. An informed industry source said that one problem with the rig was a fault in a blow-out preventer which would have caused it to fail, potentially leading to a catastrophe like BP’s Gulf of Mexico well blow-out in March. Issue 196 - 22 October 2010.more
Cost-obsessed NOC demands replacement of foreign consultants
Another crisis is brewing as IOCs are told to comply with ever more exacting financial and operational conditions, writes John Hamilton in Tripoli Issue 196 - 22 October 2010.more
NOC decides domestic gas price
An ad hoc committee at National Oil Corporation has reached agreement in principle on the price at which gas will be sold to end users within the country. Issue 196 - 22 October 2010.more
Domestic investment fund
The Libyan Investment Authority (LIA), a sovereign wealth fund mainly responsible for investing oil proceeds overseas, has created a special fund for domestic investments. Issue 196 - 22 October 2010.more
BP plans deep-water drilling offshore Libya amid fears of damage to historic sites
With BP set to drill even deeper than the ill-fated Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico, scientists fear ancient Greek and Roman remains and coastal ecology could be damaged, writes John Hamilton Issue 195, 8 October 2010.more
Libya’s General People’s Committee (GPC, the cabinet) has extended two out of 23 five-year exploration and production-sharing agreements signed by international companies and National Oil Corporation in November 2005. Issue 195, 8 October 2010.more
First domestic design contract
Italy’s Saipem and Canada’s SNC Lavalin have signed the first energy sector contract for which international contractors will carry out the engineering design work inside Libya. Issue 194, 24 September 2010.more
Drilling gathers pace
A spate of recent tenders offers a snapshot of some of the major exploration and drilling campaigns under way in Libya. Issue 194, 24 September 2010.more
Libya/UK deals: it’s not all about BP
In the eye of the storm triggered by the Deepwater Horizon disaster, BP is looking to divest more assets, and remains under pressure from Congress and a range of lobby groups over its plans to start drilling in the Libyan offshore (AE 191/12). Senior congressmen are threatening to descend on London and Edinburgh in search of ‘the truth’ about convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset Ali Mohammed Al-Megrahi’s release on grounds of ill health. Issue 192, 6 August 2010. more
Downstream hydrocarbons update: too many Maghreb projects stalled on the drawing board
The first of a new series of Downstream hydrocarbons update tables suggests there are plenty of projects awaiting lift-off to add value to North African oil and gas producers. But too many schemes in the Maghreb remain stalled for lack of finance and serious development partners Issue 191, 23 July 2010.more
Libya charts new course for NOC to weather the coming storm
New management, new strategy and possible new institutions are shaking up Libya’s energy sector, but first it must get over the recent lack of commercial discoveries and a number of thorny political issues Issue 191, 23 July 2010.more
New management at NOC
National Oil Corporation has a new management committee. The General People’s Committee (GPC – government) decided on 13 July to restructure the national company’s executive board, replacing three of its members with four newcomers, all but one of whom has virtually no public profile. Issue 191, 23 July 2010.more
Revised oil law enters legislative process
The much discussed rewriting of Libya’s ancient petroleum law has moved from the realm of discussion and speculation to reality with an official announcement of the procedure through which the legislation must now pass to enter statute. Issue 191, 23 July 2010.more
Libyan E&P, sovereign wealth could play a big role in BP’s future
Pressure from Democratic Party Senator Frank Lautenberg and other congressmen on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to open an investigation into BP ’s role in lobbying for the release of the convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset Al-Megrahi has added to pressure on the British company in the United States. Issue 191, 23 July 2010.more
Gecol seeks help from UNDP
General Electric Company of Libya chairman Belgasem Mohamed Younis and United Nations Development Programme resident representative Costanza Farina signed an agreement on 16 June to improve the electricity company’s management and systems. Issue 189, 25 June 2010.more
Libya’s NOC confirms capacity ramp-up has been restrained by Opec-inspired budget cuts
Opec production restrictions will continue to curb international companies’ ability to produce oil in Libya, further slowing the advance of development projects, writes John Hamilton Issue 189, 25 June 2010.more
NOC’s Gazprom talks continue
As it awaits final approval of its deal to buy into Eni’s Elephant field, Gazprom has continued its long-running negotiations with NOC over further co-operation (AE 184/20). Gazprom EP international director-general Boris Ivanov met NOC chairman Shukri Ghanem and management committee adviser Ahmed El-Ghaber on 14 June to discuss possible joint projects. Issue 189, 25 June 2010.more
NOC declares ‘outstanding performance’
National Oil Corporation has approved its 2009 annual report, with the Libyan state company’s chairman Dr Shukri Ghanem describing the results as “an outstanding performance”. Issue 189, 25 June 2010.more
Libya says Deepwater Horizon spill is no reason to delay BP offshore drilling
Libya will allow UK-based supermajor BP to go ahead with its planned deep-water offshore drilling which it plans to begin this July, despite questions which have been raised about the safety of the technology following the blowout of the Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico and the ensuing environmental catastrophe along the United States’ Gulf coast. Issue 189, 25 June 2010.more
NOC announces six discoveries
National Oil Corporation has announced six oil discoveries in the past month (AE 186/17). On 24 May, NOC’s Arabian Gulf Oil Company (Agoco) subsidiary said it had made a pair of oil discoveries at wells in areas NC4 and NC8A in the Ghadames Basin. Issue 187, 28 May 2010.more
Neptune order thought to mark start of Gazprom project
Neptune Marine Services said it had been contracted to provide a range of offshore hydrographic survey and positioning services for a major international oil company. Issue 187, 28 May 2010.more
Poles launch drilling programme
Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) is preparing to drill the first of eight exploration wells at its Murzuq Basin blocks 113 1 and 2. Issue 187, 28 May 2010.more
Pipeline delays on the agenda
Sirte Oil Company (SOC) and Indian construction company Punj Lloyd met in early May to discuss progress on the construction of the Khoms-Tripoli-Mellitah pipeline, which was due to be completed last year. Issue 187, 28 May 2010.more
Lerco sees profit in 2009
Libyan Emirates Refining Company (Lerco) made a profit of $65m in 2009, its first year of operation, on a turnover of $580m, according to National Oil Corporation (NOC) board member Abu Qasim Mohamed Zuwari. Issue 187, 28 May 2010.more
Libya abandons plans to increase production
Poor market conditions and Opec restrictions mean that Libya has no plans to increase production, despite many official statements in recent years, writes John Hamilton Issue 186, 14 May 2010.more
Medco find
Indonesia’s PT Medco Energi Internasional has announced an oil find in Area 47 with the L1-47/02 exploration well. Issue 186, 14 May 2010.more
Marsa Al-Brega LNG retender
Shell Exploration and Production Libya and Sirte Oil and Gas Production and Manufacturing Company, a subsidiary of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), plan to retender the contract for the rehabilitation of the Marsa Al-Brega liquefied natural gas plant to get a lower price. Issue 186, 14 May 2010.more
Gazprom declares force majeure to avoid collateral damage from Switzerland
Offshore drilling company Transocean registered in Switzerland two years ago, and this month took a secondary listing on SIX Swiss. But it could not have predicted that it would be hit by the fallout from the Libyan leader’s family vendetta with the Swiss authorities, writes John Hamilton Issue 185, 30 April 2010.more
Indonesian operator sets out drilling plans
PT Medco Energi Internasional subsidiary Medco International Ventures has taken over the operatorship of Area 47 in the Ghadames Basin. Issue 185, 30 April 2010.more
Companies announce seismic and drilling campaigns
A number of companies have announced seismic or drilling campaigns which will begin over the next six to 12 months. Germany’s RWE Dea said it expected to start drilling its first wells in Concession Area 58 in the Cyrenaica Plateau in 2011. Issue 185, 30 April 2010.more
NOC pushes projects
National Oil Corporation continues to push to bring foreign investors into refinery and other downstream investment projects. Issue 185, 30 April 2010.more
Gazprom and Eni agree terms for Elephant partnership in Libya
Gazprom has finally reached agreement on the terms of its farm-in to Eni’s El Feel field in Libya’s Murzuq Basin, nearly two years after the deal was first announced. The deal will be widely analysed for what it says about the Russian giants’ Mediterranean Basin ambitions, as well as for Libya’s E&P prospects, writes John Hamilton Issue 184, 16 April 2010.more
Ghanem proposes new law to streamline oil legislation, but faces colossal challenge
Libya’s energy authorities are consulting on draft hydrocarbons legislation to replace the current law which has been in place since 1955. But getting a replacement onto the statute books will be difficult, writes John Hamilton Issue 183, 26 March 2010.more
Libya’s hydrocarbons law: a history
Officially known as Law 25, Libya’s oil law was introduced in 1955, four years after the country became the first to declare independence under the auspices of the United Nations. Issue 183, 26 March 2010.more
Political and diplomatic unpredictability complicate Libya’s opportunities
In theory, there is a huge amount of business to be done in Libya. The Jamahiriya (State of the Masses) is in the middle of a massive programme of economic and social development, and has great need of international expertise not only to meet targets for increasing oil and gas production, but also to develop physical and social infrastructure of all kinds (AE 172/13). Issue 183, 26 March 2010.more
Tripoli raises stakes in dispute with US
A formal apology over a US State Department spokesman’s comments fails to quell anger at National Oil Corporation as its chairman threatens to favour China and Russia Issue 182, 12 March 2010. more
Generation policy rethink, nuclear options
The General People’s Committee (GPC – cabinet) has asked the Supreme Council for Energy Affairs (SCEA) to establish a new strategy for the increase and diversification of generation capacity. At a meeting in December, the GPC also directed the Atomic Energy Organisation (AEO) to study and negotiate offers from international companies for the use of nuclear energy in electricity production and desalination projects. Issue 178, 12 January 2010.more
Verenex sale finalised
Canada’s Verenex Energy has closed its sale to the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) for C$360m ($349m), having received the necessary approvals from shareholders and regulators (AE 175/17). “It’s been a long, tough journey,” said Verenex chief executive Jim McFarland. Issue 178, 12 January 2010.more
Turkey asks for direct crude sales
A delegation of Turkish businessmen led by prime minister Tayyip Erdogan made a request to buy Libyan oil during a visit to Tripoli in early December. Issue 178, 12 January 2010.more
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